by The Iron_Throne

By now, the Mark Mulder trade is old news to anyone in the Cardinal nation who has uncurled from their World Series-induced fetal ball. The wisdom of this deal, though, won’t be fully known until Daric Barton shows his chops in Network Associates Coliseum. Of course, that hasn’t stopped every other baseball wag from conclusively demonstrating how brilliant/foolish (please circle one) Walt’s latest move was. I’m new to this punditry gig, so I’m going to start slow and work my way up to stone cold certainty.

The market for pitching this off-season has mostly been a case of too many dingoes and not enough babies. The average of eight million dollars a year for mediocre starters (see Ortiz, Russ, or Benson, Anna Kris) actually started at the trade deadline with the Mets feverishly spending their future for a chance to compete only two weeks too late. This mania for filling out rotations was fueled further by the strong playoff rotations of Houston, Boston, New York, and Minnesota. The two GMs involved in this trade are seen by most as very astute players who rarely get burned on deals. Billy Beane has always run his ballclub by finding value at the margins. Starting pitching is a commodity much as oil and pork bellies, and when the price went through the roof for veteran free agent pitching, Beane dealt his abundance of pitchers for value. Jocketty, after declaring that the Cardinals were in dire need of just that, wisely stayed away from the likes of Wright, Benson, and Martinez. It is Beane’s strong position in a buyers market which explains why Jocketty paid such a price; pitching is very expensive right now.

The Cardinals traded 24 year old RH starter Dan Haren, soon to be 30 year old RH reliever Kiko Calero, and 19 year old C Daric Barton (he’ll be 20 in August) for 27 year old LH starter Mark Mulder (he’ll be 28 in August). Mulder is a top-quality left handed starter, capable of contending for a Cy Young award and providing a formidable presence in the first game of a playoff series. Many in the Cardinals organization believed this was sorely lacking not only this past season but in 2003 as well. Mulder is under contract for 2005 at $6 million, and the Cardinals have an option for 2006 at $7.5 million with at $250,000 buyout. In giving up Haren and Calero, the Cardinals have lost their projected fourth/fifth starter and a solid middle reliever. Furthermore, the Cardinals have traded away Barton, their sole position prospect.

Mark Mulder had improved in each of his first four years in the majors before taking a step backwards last year, shown by declines in nearly all of his stats. His ERA declined from 3.19 to 4.43, K/9 from 6.17 to 5.58, K/BB from 3.20 to 1.69, and OPS from .684 to .751. The major culprit centers on the increase in walks; despite throwing fewer pitches per plate appearance than ever before, he gave a career high number of free passes. The damage last year comes primarily after the All-star break, leading many to focus on his injury problems. In 2003 Mark Mulder missed the second half of the season after an injury to his right (plant) hip on a poorly prepared mound in Philadelphia. Originally diagnosed as a strain, it was later revealed to be a break below the ball joint of his hip. While this type of injury can be very serious, he showed little sign of it after spring training. Through his first fifteen starts last year, his ERA stood at 2.76 versus a league average of 4.63. However, over the remainder of the season he compiled an ERA of 6.82. His walk rate in the second half was an alarming 4.43/9, up 120% over the 3.63/9 from his first half. What this tells us about his future is open to debate. He may have a new (as yet undiscovered) injury, or the hip injury may have cost him his stamina, or he may have altered his mechanics compensating for his injury. So far, there has been no word of a new injury, and the Cardinals reported no problems with his physical. Any stamina problems should diminish with time, and there are few pitching coaches better than Duncan to fix mechanical problems. On the whole, Mulder is the true prize of the Big Three™ this off-season, with Zito taking steps backward each of his last two seasons, and Hudson having only one more season under contract.

The question is whether in giving up Calero and Haren, we may have given away too much of our pitching present, and a potential all-star hitter in return for a starter of uncertain health.

Dan Haren has had a following in the SABR world for several seasons, based on his strong K/9 of 8.79 and his fantastic 5.37 K/BB rate in the minors. He’s a classic Billy Beane target, whose statistics have been at odds with the scouting reports that grade him out as average in terms of “stuff.” He has been uneven in his time in the majors, posting an ERA of 4.85 in 19 games started over two seasons. His K/9 has been a little above average, and his walks per nine a little below at 5.69 and 1.92. His minor league numbers project him to be a better starter than he has shown so far. Calero as well is good but unspectacular. As a reliever, his value is lower than Haren’s, but he has had a better track record. Since relief pitchers tend to be much cheaper and more unpredictable, Calero’s value is only a small component of the value of the trade, being little more than this trade’s T. J. Matthews.

The ultimate verdict on this trade will center on how Daric Barton turns out. Good hitting catchers are the rarest of the rare baseball animal, and their value cannot be underestimated. Barton has posted numbers of .313/.445/.511 at A Peoria, which has a park factor of 946 in a good pitcher’s league, and he was a little young for this circuit. The season before he posted .291/.419/.416 at short season Johnson City. ESPN’s John Sickels rates Barton very highly, projecting him to be at least a solid major league regular. Even with all this, though, the rate of failure (or at least being shifted to other positions where their hitting is of less value) is higher for catchers than for any other type of prospect, including high school pitchers. Also, since most scouts claim that Barton doesn’t have the tools to handle catcher above A ball, we should evaluate him as a 1B/DH, or at best a corner outfielder. And there is the belief that he has a weight problem that could also push him down the defensive spectrum. Lastly, it should be pointed out that being the last (or only) position prospect in the Cardinals’ system doesn’t make him any better of a player. His value based on how he performs relative to the whole of the major leagues, not compared to the likes of John Gall or Hector Luna.

Trading Barton while he definitely has value is a solid move; one that shows Jocketty wasn't going to dive in to the inflated pitching market this season and pay 8 million for 200 inning journeymen. The Cardinals were already going to be competitive in 2005, and adding Mulder should make them better. However, in 2007, Barton’s likely rookie year, there is no guarantee that the Cards would be one Daric Barton short of success, nor in 2008 or 2009, the seasons he’s likely to first add significant value. Marginal wins in a winning season are worth far more that those same wins in a .500 season.

Overlooked in all the analyses of this trade is that we keep Ankiel, who was rumored to be on the block with Haren as the winter meetings started. Since Ankiel has very little perceived value, but as much potential as any ace, trading him would have been foolish. Don’t be surprised if Ankiel has a good spring and Walt signs him to a long term contract.

Overall, this trade works out well for the Cardinals. Jocketty traded Haren and Calero, two solidly above average pitchers whose greatest value is in their low salaries, which makes them more important for the low payroll A’s than the Cardinals. He added a likely 1B/DH that will not contribute significantly at the major league level for three to four years, all in return for a left handed starter that can give us 200 plus innings of top quality pitching. As with any trade, there is some risk, but it is likely that the two years of Mulder will be of more value than Barton’s first six years in the majors plus Haren’s next four.

The Iron_Throne