Somebody suggested we have introductory posts. Here's mine: My name is Rob and I'm a stat-aholic. I had a more thematic first post in mind, but I was having trouble preaching without sounding preachy, so I'll make it short: Some stats are of questionable value, among them fielding percentage, range factor (Eckstein transaction's still fresh), most "splits" and pitch counts.

But that's not much fun. Dan Szymborski has posted his ZiPS projections for the Cardinals, among other teams. Right now I'm projecting 830 or so runs scored for the 2005 Cardinals. More details if you click below... (trust me and ignore the virus warnings)

Without further ado, here's how the runs tally, based on rates projected by ZiPS, my guesses at playing time and Jim Furtado's Extrapolated Runs:

Name            AVG   OBP   SLG    AB     XR
Mahoney        .255  .305  .356    40     4.2 
McKay*         .239  .285  .332    40     3.6 
Molina         .273  .332  .341   400    45.2 
Hart           .271  .315  .382   100    11.6 
Luna           .281  .342  .357   200    24.3 
Pujols         .347  .435  .659   600   151.4 
Rolen          .295  .393  .538   550   111.9 
Seabol         .271  .321  .445    40     5.6 
Cedeno#        .265  .322  .363   200    23.3 
Edmonds*       .287  .402  .588   475   107.2 
Gall           .280  .337  .444    40     5.8 
Mabry*         .278  .343  .469   250    39.2 
Sanders        .245  .310  .447   450    63.3 
Taguchi        .248  .289  .346   150    14.0 
Walker*        .254  .361  .432   400    64.0 
Nunez#         .245  .311  .344    40     4.2 
Schumaker*     .267  .330  .333    40     4.3 
Eckstein       .265  .333  .328   550    61.9 
Grudzielanek   .284  .326  .391   400    48.4 
Alomar#        .240  .317  .334    75     8.3 
Diaz           .224  .273  .298   200    15.6 
Pitchers       .175  .206  .223   325    10.0 

Those are my guesses for the pitchers. Add them all up and you get 832 runs. The aggregate AB-H is 4,055 compared to a mean of 4,044 over the past three years, so let's call it 830 runs. As a team that's about 273/349/436, which is a little more OBP and 24 points less SLG than the Cardinals had in 2004.

There are a couple of caveats to this exercise. First, Alomar's on the list, even though it's only 50 at-bats; as long as Cody McKay doesn't get those 50 at-bats, that probably makes this projection a little low (yes, Alomar's been that bad). Second, the Luna projection is probably high, since Szymborski evidently believes Luna's only 23. Finally, I had to use Grudzielanek's Wrigley projection, which probably is a little high, and Eckstein's Anaheim/Los Angeles/Los Angeles of Anaheim hit-by-pitches, which maybe is a little low. So maybe the total should be closer to 825, although presumably Taguchi or McKay will get less playing time if they struggle that much. These calculations aren't that precise anyway.

As something of an aside, I'd guess Walker and Eckstein beat those projections. The Sanders projection is a little scary, but it's justifiable. I hope we'll see the real Jeff Suppan at the plate, the one that Thom Brennaman kept insisting hit .270 in 2004.

Edit: As Flynn noted, I missed Einar Diaz, who was with the Expos last year. Goodness, he's worse than Matheny with the stick. Today's PD makes it sound a tad more likely that Alomar will make the team, so I gave him a few more at-bats, mostly at Hart's expense. Add 'em up and get 827 runs, so with the Luna and Grudz comments still in mind, I'll estimate 825 runs scored.