Goodbye, Edgar; Hello, David

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Welcome to The Birdwatch. I'm sure you, our reader, are well-versed as to the purpose of our new site by now, so I'll begin my first post by introducing myself. My name is Jeff Kissel; for the purposes of this blog, however, I'll be known as MO Boiler. I'm 23, a lifelong resident of St. Louis, and a recent graduate of Purdue University. I'm a frequent visitor at Busch Stadium throughout the summer -- I attended 22 games there in 2003, and 46 last season. (You might have seen me carrying around my trademark scorebook and clipboard.) And, for good measure, I also run the blog Pure Cardinal Obsession.

As far as the content of my first post goes, I'm going to profile the Cardinals' new shortstop, David Eckstein, and the events leading up to his acquisition. I'll continue the short series with a post sometime next week assessing the second base situation.

To begin their offseason, the Cardinals offered "incumbent" shortstop Edgar Renteria a contract of 4 years, $32 million -- only to be turned down in favor of a 4 year, $40 million offer by the Red Sox. Renteria, who completed the deal December 15, claimed the Sox were "more interested" in him than the Cardinals were at the bargaining table. Undaunted, the Cards thrust themselves back into the sellers' market in an effort to sign Orlando Cabrera. Cabrera ended up signing a 4 year, $32 million contract with the Angels on December 20. So, after losing out on Cabrera as well as Placido Polanco, who accepted arbitration with the Phillies on December 19, the Cardinals immediately went to work on acquiring David Eckstein, who was not tendered a contract offer by the Angels before the December 20 deadline for free agency. Thanks to some nifty communication, the Cards were able ink Eckstein to a 3 year, $10.25 million contract on December 23.

As far as performance goes, Eckstein has a reputation as a gritty, hard-nosed player who gets on base at a decent clip, but not much else with the bat, and doesn't hurt you defensively. His most similar batter at age 29 (according to Baseball-Reference.com) is Phil Rizzuto, the diminutive shortstop of the great Stengelian Yankee teams in the late 1940s and early 1950s -- indeed, a good comparison, although Eckstein isn't quite what Rizzuto was with the glove. Here are his 2002-04 statistics, followed by those of the other two initial candidates:

David Eckstein, 3 years, $10.25 million
Career statistics: 2520 PA, .278/.347/.353, 87 OPS+

Year Ag  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA    OBP   SLG   OPS  OPS+ 
2002 27 152  608  107  178  22  6   8   63  21 13  45  44  .293  .363  .388  .752  103
2003 28 120  452   59  114  22  1   3   31  16  5  36  45  .252  .325  .325  .651   79
2004 29 142  566   92  156  24  1   2   35  16  5  42  49  .276  .339  .332  .671   77

Orlando Cabrera, 4 years, $32 million
Career statistics: 3840 PA, .268/.316/.409, 83 OPS+

Year Ag  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA    OBP   SLG   OPS  OPS+ 
2002 27 153  563   64  148  43  1   7   56  25  7  48  53  .263  .321  .380  .701   84
2003 28 162  626   95  186  47  2  17   80  24  2  52  64  .297  .347  .460  .807   95
2004 29 161  618   74  163  38  3  10   62  16  4  39  54  .264  .306  .383  .689   79

Edgar Renteria, 4 years, $40 million
Career statistics: 5501 PA, .289/.346/.400, 96 OPS+

Year Ag  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA    OBP   SLG   OPS  OPS+ 
2002 26 152  544   77  166  36  2  11   83  22  7  49  57  .305  .364  .439  .803  116
2003 27 157  587   96  194  47  1  13  100  34  7  65  54  .330  .394  .480  .874  131
2004 28 149  586   84  168  37  0  10   72  17 11  39  78  .287  .327  .401  .728   90

Two thoughts: first, of the bunch, Renteria is clearly the best offensive player. And second, the gap between Eckstein and Cabrera isn't as large as some might think. Eckstein clearly serves one purpose as a leadoff hitter: to get on base, and his career OBP is the highest of the three. Unfortunately, his skills are extremely one-dimensional, but if placed in a leadoff role with Walker, Pujols, Rolen, and Edmonds behind him, that .347 career OBP would be adequate. If Eckstein can produce along the lines of .280/.350/.335 with solid defense, he just might be worth the money the Cardinals paid, given the shortstop market this offseason.

Oh yeah, what about that defense? Here's a table of fielding win shares from 2004 for players with 100+ games at SS (sorted by Innings per WS):

Player          Team     DefWS     G@SS     Inn@SS     Inn/WS     ZR
Guzman          Min      9.6       145      1304.7     135.9      0.823
Wilson,J        Pit      9.3       156      1355.7     145.8      0.859
Furcal          Atl      6.9       131      1134       164.3      0.804
Valentin        ChW      6.1       122      1025.3     168.1      0.878
Gonzalez        Fla      7.5       158      1351.7     180.2      0.862
Crosby          Oak      7.5       151      1356       180.8      0.87
Lugo            TB       6.7       143      1238       184.8      0.848
Jeter           NYY      7.2       154      1341.7     186.3      0.847
Counsell        Mil      5.8       129      1130.7     194.9      0.835
Izturis         LA       7.1       159      1386       195.2      0.881
Tejada          Bal      7.2       162      1421.7     197.5      0.861
Greene          SD       5.6       136      1189.7     212.4      0.847
Guillen         Det      5.2       135      1151       221.3      0.837
Young           Tex      5.8       158      1386.7     239.1      0.81
Cabrera         Mon/Bos  5.2       158      1358.7     261.3      0.838
Renteria        StL      4.9       149      1307.3     266.8      0.855
Berroa          KC       4.2       133      1143       272.1      0.778
Vizquel         Cle      4.5       147      1245       276.7      0.84
Eckstein        Ana      4.3       138      1191.7     277.1      0.859
Rollins         Phi      4.8       154      1376.7     286.8      0.858
Clayton         Col      4         144      1241       310.3      0.82
Cintron         Ari      3.4       133      1099       323.2      0.819

None of the three are near the top, and the difference between them is pretty small. If anything, compared to the other two, Eckstein seems to make up for a slightly smaller range by converting a slightly higher percentage of the balls he does get into outs. Among qualifying shortstops as noted above, Eckstein has finished in the top three in fielding percentage the past two seasons, and the top six in Zone Rating the past three seasons. Also, it should be noted that Eckstein's Angels had the third-lowest G/F ratio as well as the fourth-highest strikeout rate in MLB for the 2004 season, thus lessening the probability of their shortstop receiving fielding chances. That lack of chances could have contributed slightly to Eckstein's lower range factor. (Conversely, Renteria's Cardinals had the highest G/F in the league, and both of Cabrera's teams were in the top half.)

As a position, shortstop has transformed itself since the Ozzie Smith era, with players like Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Nomar Garciaparra catapulting into superstardom. Even less heralded players like Renteria, Rich Aurilia, or Carlos Guillen have put together excellent seasons. The price of performance has become that of a glamour position, and teams are (sometimes unnecessarily) paying it. Is Renteria worth $10 million a year? Probably not. Is Cabrera for $8 million a year? Definitely not. With the market the way it is this offseason, I'll take Eckstein for $3.4 million a season over either of them.

Posted by MO Boiler at January 1, 2005 11:34 AM
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Thanks to all of you involved in setting up this site. I'm looking forward to some intelligent discussion about our favorite team.

By the way, I would still prefer we sign Barry Larkin to play shortstop (while seeing if Luna can handle the job) with Eckstein playing second, a psotion for which he is much better suited.

Posted by: Steve T. at January 3, 2005 06:58 PM