Goodbye, Edgar; Hello, David
« The Mark Mulder Trade; Trading Tomorrow for a Better Today | Main | "Good field, no hit." »Welcome to The Birdwatch. I'm sure you, our reader, are well-versed as to the purpose of our new site by now, so I'll begin my first post by introducing myself. My name is Jeff Kissel; for the purposes of this blog, however, I'll be known as MO Boiler. I'm 23, a lifelong resident of St. Louis, and a recent graduate of Purdue University. I'm a frequent visitor at Busch Stadium throughout the summer -- I attended 22 games there in 2003, and 46 last season. (You might have seen me carrying around my trademark scorebook and clipboard.) And, for good measure, I also run the blog Pure Cardinal Obsession.
As far as the content of my first post goes, I'm going to profile the Cardinals' new shortstop, David Eckstein, and the events leading up to his acquisition. I'll continue the short series with a post sometime next week assessing the second base situation.
To begin their offseason, the Cardinals offered "incumbent" shortstop Edgar Renteria a contract of 4 years, $32 million -- only to be turned down in favor of a 4 year, $40 million offer by the Red Sox. Renteria, who completed the deal December 15, claimed the Sox were "more interested" in him than the Cardinals were at the bargaining table. Undaunted, the Cards thrust themselves back into the sellers' market in an effort to sign Orlando Cabrera. Cabrera ended up signing a 4 year, $32 million contract with the Angels on December 20. So, after losing out on Cabrera as well as Placido Polanco, who accepted arbitration with the Phillies on December 19, the Cardinals immediately went to work on acquiring David Eckstein, who was not tendered a contract offer by the Angels before the December 20 deadline for free agency. Thanks to some nifty communication, the Cards were able ink Eckstein to a 3 year, $10.25 million contract on December 23.
As far as performance goes, Eckstein has a reputation as a gritty, hard-nosed player who gets on base at a decent clip, but not much else with the bat, and doesn't hurt you defensively. His most similar batter at age 29 (according to Baseball-Reference.com) is Phil Rizzuto, the diminutive shortstop of the great Stengelian Yankee teams in the late 1940s and early 1950s -- indeed, a good comparison, although Eckstein isn't quite what Rizzuto was with the glove. Here are his 2002-04 statistics, followed by those of the other two initial candidates:
David Eckstein, 3 years, $10.25 million
Career statistics: 2520 PA, .278/.347/.353, 87 OPS+
Year Ag G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 2002 27 152 608 107 178 22 6 8 63 21 13 45 44 .293 .363 .388 .752 103 2003 28 120 452 59 114 22 1 3 31 16 5 36 45 .252 .325 .325 .651 79 2004 29 142 566 92 156 24 1 2 35 16 5 42 49 .276 .339 .332 .671 77
Orlando Cabrera, 4 years, $32 million
Career statistics: 3840 PA, .268/.316/.409, 83 OPS+
Year Ag G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 2002 27 153 563 64 148 43 1 7 56 25 7 48 53 .263 .321 .380 .701 84 2003 28 162 626 95 186 47 2 17 80 24 2 52 64 .297 .347 .460 .807 95 2004 29 161 618 74 163 38 3 10 62 16 4 39 54 .264 .306 .383 .689 79
Edgar Renteria, 4 years, $40 million
Career statistics: 5501 PA, .289/.346/.400, 96 OPS+
Year Ag G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 2002 26 152 544 77 166 36 2 11 83 22 7 49 57 .305 .364 .439 .803 116 2003 27 157 587 96 194 47 1 13 100 34 7 65 54 .330 .394 .480 .874 131 2004 28 149 586 84 168 37 0 10 72 17 11 39 78 .287 .327 .401 .728 90
Two thoughts: first, of the bunch, Renteria is clearly the best offensive player. And second, the gap between Eckstein and Cabrera isn't as large as some might think. Eckstein clearly serves one purpose as a leadoff hitter: to get on base, and his career OBP is the highest of the three. Unfortunately, his skills are extremely one-dimensional, but if placed in a leadoff role with Walker, Pujols, Rolen, and Edmonds behind him, that .347 career OBP would be adequate. If Eckstein can produce along the lines of .280/.350/.335 with solid defense, he just might be worth the money the Cardinals paid, given the shortstop market this offseason.
Oh yeah, what about that defense? Here's a table of fielding win shares from 2004 for players with 100+ games at SS (sorted by Innings per WS):
Player Team DefWS G@SS Inn@SS Inn/WS ZR Guzman Min 9.6 145 1304.7 135.9 0.823 Wilson,J Pit 9.3 156 1355.7 145.8 0.859 Furcal Atl 6.9 131 1134 164.3 0.804 Valentin ChW 6.1 122 1025.3 168.1 0.878 Gonzalez Fla 7.5 158 1351.7 180.2 0.862 Crosby Oak 7.5 151 1356 180.8 0.87 Lugo TB 6.7 143 1238 184.8 0.848 Jeter NYY 7.2 154 1341.7 186.3 0.847 Counsell Mil 5.8 129 1130.7 194.9 0.835 Izturis LA 7.1 159 1386 195.2 0.881 Tejada Bal 7.2 162 1421.7 197.5 0.861 Greene SD 5.6 136 1189.7 212.4 0.847 Guillen Det 5.2 135 1151 221.3 0.837 Young Tex 5.8 158 1386.7 239.1 0.81 Cabrera Mon/Bos 5.2 158 1358.7 261.3 0.838 Renteria StL 4.9 149 1307.3 266.8 0.855 Berroa KC 4.2 133 1143 272.1 0.778 Vizquel Cle 4.5 147 1245 276.7 0.84 Eckstein Ana 4.3 138 1191.7 277.1 0.859 Rollins Phi 4.8 154 1376.7 286.8 0.858 Clayton Col 4 144 1241 310.3 0.82 Cintron Ari 3.4 133 1099 323.2 0.819
None of the three are near the top, and the difference between them is pretty small. If anything, compared to the other two, Eckstein seems to make up for a slightly smaller range by converting a slightly higher percentage of the balls he does get into outs. Among qualifying shortstops as noted above, Eckstein has finished in the top three in fielding percentage the past two seasons, and the top six in Zone Rating the past three seasons. Also, it should be noted that Eckstein's Angels had the third-lowest G/F ratio as well as the fourth-highest strikeout rate in MLB for the 2004 season, thus lessening the probability of their shortstop receiving fielding chances. That lack of chances could have contributed slightly to Eckstein's lower range factor. (Conversely, Renteria's Cardinals had the highest G/F in the league, and both of Cabrera's teams were in the top half.)
As a position, shortstop has transformed itself since the Ozzie Smith era, with players like Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Nomar Garciaparra catapulting into superstardom. Even less heralded players like Renteria, Rich Aurilia, or Carlos Guillen have put together excellent seasons. The price of performance has become that of a glamour position, and teams are (sometimes unnecessarily) paying it. Is Renteria worth $10 million a year? Probably not. Is Cabrera for $8 million a year? Definitely not. With the market the way it is this offseason, I'll take Eckstein for $3.4 million a season over either of them.
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Thanks to all of you involved in setting up this site. I'm looking forward to some intelligent discussion about our favorite team.
By the way, I would still prefer we sign Barry Larkin to play shortstop (while seeing if Luna can handle the job) with Eckstein playing second, a psotion for which he is much better suited.
Posted by: Steve T. at January 3, 2005 06:58 PM