Kiko Calero
« First Prediction for NL Central | Main | Larkin? »Kiko Calero was part of the package that went to Oakland for Mark Mulder. He's the overlooked part of the package, mostly because he was underutilized in St. Louis. Who is Kiko Calero and what will he become in Oakland?
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Calero was a Minor League Free agent signed by the Cardinals out of the Royals system.
In 2002 he threw 125.2 innings in the PCL (Omaha for the Royals) and put up the following line: 48ER, 109K's, 35 BB, ERA of 3.44.
By Ratio:
K/BB 3.11
K/9: 7.7
BB/9: 2.5
HR/9: .79
The year before in the Texas League he put up similar numbers (with an ERA of 3.33):
K/9: 6.8
BB/9: 3.7
HR/9: .72
He was showing improvement as he moved through levels and he was striking out a good number of batters and walking very few. At this point he projects to a solid reliever at least.
In 2003 Kiko struck out 51 batters in 38.1 innings at the Major League level for the Cardinals. He started one game and looked great. Then he hurt his knee in Chicago and was out for the year. In 2004 Kiko was back as a reliever and struck out 47 in 45.1 walking only 10 (4.7 K/BB ration). At this point it's worth comparing Kiko to a few other relievers:
Player Innings K BB HR K/9 BB/9 HR/9 King 62 40 24 1 5.81 3.48 .15 Kline 50.1 35 17 3 6.26 3.04 .54 Isringhausen 75.1 71 23 5 8.48 2.75 .60 Calero 45.1 47 10 5 9.33 1.99 .99
Why did Calero only pitch 45 innings? He struck out more and walked fewer than every other reliever on that list. He gave up more home runs than the others true (look at Kings HR/9, thats one home run allowed last year), but in every other measureable respect he was much better than the rest of the Cardinals relievers. Looking at his appearences shows 9 gaps of 3 days or longer on his season. Tony wasn't using him for stretches at a time, instead running Kline and King out until both were exhausted at the end of the year.
Why? The only reason I can see is that he just wasn't "Tony's Guy", he hadn't managed to get that Steve Kline sheen of acceptance that made Tony comfortable running him out there.
I've said for a long time that Calero would make a fantastic closer: He has no platoon split, he strikes out a lot of batters, and he can go for multiple innings. Oakland is the kind of organization that could see that and turn Calero into a closer, then trade him away at the deadline for something shiny. With the Cardinals though, Kiko never had a chance to break out of Tonys preconcieved notion of what he was. Now that he's free of the Cardinals strict bullpen pecking order Calero will flourish. Remember this post a year from now when Kikos the star reliever of the A's.
Posted by Josh at January 4, 2005 11:29 AMI couldn't agree more. I always thought Kiko looked great, and had some powerful numbers, especially in the strikeout department. I didn't realize just how underutilized he was. I guess this is just one more reason I don't understand Tony LaRussa. And don't get me wrong, that's not to say I think he should be gone, because I don't think there are many better than him, but he can be frustrating at times because his moves don't always make sense.
Posted by: John at January 4, 2005 01:31 PMI'm pretty sure Calero was given a shot at the Cardinals on the insistence of Mike Matheny. It's surprising when you look back and see how few IP Calero had, but I doubt it's a matter of bad blood between him and LaRussa and more an issue of the setup roles that LaRussa wanted him to pitch in.
Posted by: Liam at January 4, 2005 01:33 PMCalero started the 2004 season in the minors, rehabbing from his leg injury the year before, and was recalled in early May. He also spent time on the DL from August 7 to September 3. Missing two months would pretty much explain the low number of innings.
Posted by: Steve T. at January 4, 2005 01:58 PMKline missed a month too, and he still got in 67 games. Ray King got in 86 games. Calero got in 41.
Even accounting for the missed time Calero was held out a lot. But you're right it's not as bad as it looks.
Posted by: josh at January 4, 2005 02:27 PMLook at the innings, Josh. Those two lefties had defined roles as guys who were supposed to come in and get one or two lefties at a time. Calero's job was to come in a little earlier, usually.
Given the 105 wins posted in 2004, it's hard for me to question LaRussa's usage pattern of his pitching staff.
Posted by: Steve T. at January 4, 2005 02:52 PMI should've posted the innings in that last post:
Kline - 50.1
King - 62.0
Calero - 45.1
Eldred - 67.0 (healthy all year)
Had Calero and Kline been healthy all year, I'm guessing their innings would have been right in line with those of King and Eldred.
Kiko hurt himself in KC on June 28. I know, I was there, and it was one of the single most painful moments of 2003 (and there were many, believe me).
Posted by: MO Boiler at January 4, 2005 02:57 PMSteve: Right so if you have one player whose going to get less innings because that's their role then you have to look at appearences because the innings won't match.
Example: Klines job is to get one batter out (we'll say). He makes 10 appearences. Calero is supposed to go 1 full inning.
If they were used with the same frequency then Calero would have 3 times as many innings as Kline. So you use appearences, the number of times the pitcher ran in from the bullpen. The number of times Tony put them in the game.
By that measure Calero was called on a lot less than King or Kline.
Your point: "Given the 105 wins posted in 2004, it's hard for me to question LaRussa's usage pattern of his pitching staff." has an important unstated assumption that the Cardinals were 105 win team. What if they had more talent than that? If Tony used better pitchers more often they would have won more games.
Posted by: josh at January 4, 2005 03:08 PMJeez, Josh, I thought we had determined that Calero spent two months on the DL. Otherwise, he would have been in 60+ games. Eldred was used in 52 games in a (somewhat) similar role.
As for the number of appearances vs. inings, I think it is fairly widespread that a LOOGY is going to have more appearances than a guy who is expected to pitch an inning or more per outing.
Your suggestion that the Cardinals may have had more talent than their 105 wins makes me think you're trying to pull my leg. In the history of baseball, there have been very few teams with more than 105 wins. To argue that they would have won more games had Tony used better pitchers more often ignores the increased chance of arm injury, fatigue, or the possibility that, knowing the strengths and weaknesses of his staff, he put guys in situations to succeed rather than fail.
Posted by: Steve T. at January 4, 2005 03:31 PMPart of the reason the two lefties got so many innings is because they are LEFTIES. Tony loves switching pitchers everytime the numbers say he should, so the lefties got in almost every game whenever a left handed hitter came up in a critical spot. I am a big Calero fan, but part of the reason I am not upset to see him go is that he is already 30 years old. He is NOT a prospect if he is thirty, he probably will not develop to be better than he is already. If he is used more he will put up better numbers, but for right now, for next year, and for five years from now, I'd rather have Mulder.
Posted by: Bob at January 4, 2005 05:57 PMI was under the impression that going 1 inning wasn't any different workload wise than going 1/3 of an inning. Because of the warm ups required.
"To argue that they would have won more games had Tony used better pitchers more often ignores the increased chance of arm injury"
But to say that the Cardinals won the absolute most games they could have is even worse because it's obvious that a better player playing would make a team win more games, while it's not obvious that the player would be an increased injury risk because of that playing time.
Posted by: josh at January 5, 2005 08:45 AMI love Kiko's picture I wonder how anybody got such of great shot with Kiko and Molina. The only thing that makes me happy about Kiko leaving is that now he'll be in the same organization as my brother is. St. Louis made a big mistake when they trade Kiko and Haren. Mulder it's not the same anymore and that's why the A's got ride of him. Haren is going to be a great starting pitcher and I don't believe Eldred can do the job Kiko did. This off season has been pretty bad for St. Louis, they sing a shortstop and gave him 10 million for three years and his arm is worse than my mother, and out of maybe 140 hits he had last year, I'm really not sure, 80 of those were bloopers. St. Louis got ride of Haren, Kiko, Kline, Barton (Prospect catcher) and he's going to be really good, trust me, for who? Mulder who couldn't win a game in the second half last year for nothing, whatever it's crazy and in top of that they didn't sing Edgar or Womack. They should off sing Larkin better and gave Luna more chances in short, he's definitely has better range than Eckstein and Luna will also cost a lot less and hitting wise Luna would probably be a lot better too, I mean a lot better. I think losing all those guys it's really going to hurt St. Louis this year, that's all I have to say.
Posted by: Gabriel Corchado at January 6, 2005 10:51 AM
