I don't know what to think of the first two -- at this point, it's a toss-up, since the Cubs likely underachieved last year, and the Cardinals, despite being defending NL champs, certainly have a few issues. Houston, though, when you remove Beltran, Kent, and Clemens, definitely looks to be a solid third. So I'll agree with that part.

Right now, about the only prediction I'm really ready to voice is that the Cards *aren't* going to win 105 games this season; I'm too firm a believer in regression to the mean for that. I will be hoping, however, that the regression isn't enough to knock us out of first place.

A little too premature...

Considering the Cubs are still trying to get rid of Sosa (with him, no way are they first... he's too much of a distraction for this team - he and Dusty can not coexist), the Astros don't know whether they'll have Beltran OR Clemens back (plus they're getting kinda old), and the Reds and Brewers figure to be better, I think the only thing you can do is pencil the Cards in for at least competing for the wild card.

Yeah, Until Beltran and Clemens are settled you can't say anything about the Astro's (much less that they'll be any good).

The Cubs had a lot of injury problems last year, but I'm not convinced their offense can carry them.

I'd say any of those three teams could win it, but the Cardinals have to be favored.

Huh????

As of January, the Cubs have holes in LF, RF, and closer. Now, they'll likely try to DO something about that between now and the start of spring training... but they haven't yet!

It's too early to handicap the races... especially since NO ONE will keep the same lineups from now until the trading deadline!

I'd like to go on record that the Astros are going to crash this season. They've lost a lot of players (there is no way that Beltran re-signs by Saturday, and without him Clemens isn't coming back) and are left with a core that is old (Bagwell, Biggio) or injured (Berkman). Oswalt, with his injury history, and Dotel aren't enough to win, and they let one of their few upside players walk in Wade Miller.

I'd like to go on record that the Astros are going to crash this season. They've lost a lot of players (there is no way that Beltran re-signs by Saturday, and without him Clemens isn't coming back) and are left with a core that is old (Bagwell, Biggio) or injured (Berkman). Oswalt, with his injury history, and Dotel aren't enough to win, and they let one of their few upside players walk in Wade Miller.

Isn't Dotel pitching for Oakland?

Sorry, "Lidge."

That's crazy talk. I agree the Stros will crash as well, unless they sign Beltran and Clemens, in which case they'll still struggle to contend for the wild card.

Why all the props to the Cubs? AGAIN! On paper, the Cubs rotation might be slightly better than ours, but that's even debatable. Overall, I'd say that through 9 innings, our pitching is better. Our lineup is clearly better even though we've lost Renteria and they've picked up Nomore. They're trying to dump Sosa, they lost Alou, and Ramirez and Patterson remain consistency question marks.

I do think this year will be more of a dog fight, but on paper, we have to be the favorites coming in as of this moment.

Cincy should be tougher as well. Even the lowly Brewers have made some moves, and if they get a closer, they could finish ahead of a depleted Houston.

How can you pick a team starting Todd Hollandsworth to win the division?

I'd pick the Cubs if it was confirmed that Prior, Wood, and Zambrano would each be available for 240 innings. As it stands now, they have players as likely to regress as the Cards do. (Ramirez, Barrett, Rusch, Maddux, Zambrano...)

If the Astros do not sign Beltran, and therefore Clemens retires, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Brew Crew or Reds slip ahead of Houston. Considering Berkman will miss at least a month, no more Kent, NO more Miller, who knows if Pettite will stay healthy, and at the same time the other teams in the NL Central are young, talented, and ready to put up a fight.

At this point the Cards have to be favored, but the Cubs could still make some deals to change that by April.

At this point I'm less interested in the finish than in how the Cubs will deal with Sosa. They can't keep him and with that poison pill vesting option they really can't trade him. That leaves an outright release... or maybe waiting for him to fail a steroids test so they can Giambi him.

I have to agree with everyone else.

Cubs - they've lost Alou (who led the team in win shares in 2004) and Clement (arguably their 2nd best pitcher last year.) Those two have been replaced with? Nothing.

Prior and Wood getting healthy is an upgrade, Nomar all year should be an upgrade. However - if they end up with Jeromy Burnitz in left field and Sosa in right, along with no bullpen and Rusch in the rotation? How are they going to gain 16 games on the Cardinals even if the Cardinals regress by 10?

Yes - the Astros are about to be a train wreck. 3 pitchers (Pettitte, Oswalt, and Lidge) and just 1 hitter I really like (Berkman.) Biggio and Bagwell continue to slide.

I recently wrote an article about how I feel that Cards will repeat as NL Central Champs: http://jonfitzgerald.blogspot.com/2004/12/cardinals_31.html