Goodbye, T-Dub; Hello, Grudz

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The Cardinals signed a shortstop. Now, they've signed a second baseman. Let's see who this Mark Grudzielanek fellow really is, and what led to the Cardinals acquiring him.

In March 2004, with the spring-training auditions of Marlon Anderson and Bo Hart not going as well as they had hoped, the Cards traded minor-league pitcher Matt Duff to the Red Sox to acquire Tony Womack as their starting second baseman. Womack did not fit into the Red Sox's plans, but despite having just had Tommy John surgery (not to mention a .226/.251/.307 line in 2003), the Cardinals immediately slated him as their starting second baseman and leadoff hitter.

What followed was six months of all anyone could've asked for; Womack hit .307/.349/.385 with 26 SB as the Cards' leadoff man. The only negatives to his 2004 season were slightly below-average defense, and a poor postseason -- though the latter was not exclusively Tony's problem. So, fresh off a career year and having just turned 35, Womack signed a 2-year, $4 million contract with the Yankees -- before the Cardinals could even offer him arbitration.

The free agent market for second basemen this offseason wasn't quite as publicized as that for shortstops, since Jeff Kent was the only bona-fide star, with other solid additions Todd Walker and Placido Polanco also available. Walker quickly re-signed with the Cubs for 1 year, $2.5 million, Kent signed with the Dodgers for 2 years, $17 million, and Polanco suprisingly ended up accepting the Phillies' arbitration offer. At that point, only fairly slim pickings remained in the free agent pool: Miguel Cairo, Grudzielanek, Pokey Reese, Roberto Alomar, and the recently non-tendered Alex Cora were pretty much the only starter-quality players left on the market.

It's safe to say that if this were 2001, Robby Alomar would be your man. But something strange happened when Alomar became a Met in 2002: he suddenly transformed into his father. So, when the Cardinals reportedly were coming to terms with Robby on a 1 year, $500k (plus incentives) contract, everyone was a little skeptical. That deal apparently fell through, however, and Grudzielanek ended up signing with the club one week ago today.

Grudzielanek's past four seasons:

Year Ag  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  OPS+
2001 31 133  539   83  146  21  3  13   55   4  4  28  83  .271  .317  .393  .710   91
2002 32 150  536   56  145  23  0   9   50   4  1  22  89  .271  .301  .364  .665   82
2003 33 121  481   73  151  38  1   3   38   6  2  30  64  .314  .366  .416  .782  105
2004 34  81  257   32   79  12  1   6   23   1  1  15  32  .307  .347  .432  .779   96

After an awful 2002, Grudz (with Eric Karros) was traded to the Cubs for Todd Hundley in a mutual salary dump. He (and Karros) then proceeded to put together a surprisingly productive 2003 as the Cubs' starting second baseman, helping lead them to the NL Central division title, while Hundley crashed and burned as a second-stint Dodger. In 2004, Grudz missed most of the first half of the season, but put together a decent second half while platooning with Walker.

Grudzielanek's 2005 ZIPS projection (thanks to BTF and Dan Szymborksi):

AB   R    H   2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
412  52  117  24  1   6  48  22  57   3  .284  .326  .391  .717

That's as a Cub, so it might be tweaked a little for park effects somewhere else (I don't know where else to find any of these), but if he provides .290/.330/.400 as a Cardinal while batting (likely) seventh in the lineup, I'm not one to complain. Defensively, Grudz has a .983 career FP at 2B, compared to the league average of .982. Coincidental or not, what I believe he'll be next year is around league average -- or slightly better than Womack was in 2004.

To me, the thing about Grudzielanek that makes him a good pickup for the Cardinals is the fact that he's a decent player for very cheap. His base salary for 2005 is $1 million, with $500k in incentives. With signings like Eckstein and Grudzielanek, and also the Mulder trade, the Cardinals have retooled for 2005 with a substantial amount of financial flexibility, allowing them to make a midseason trade for any big names who might become available at that time.

Other Grudzielanek signing links here and here.

Note: Sorry for the delay in publishing this; I've been a little busy.

Posted by MO Boiler at January 14, 2005 02:54 PM
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Great piece, MO.

Posted by: Sean at January 15, 2005 09:36 PM