Using ZiPS, I crunched the numbers and forecast the Cardinals to score about 825 runs next season. Continuing on this process, how does the pitching stack up? Using ZiPS again, I came up with 720 runs allowed. Details of this computation follow in the rest of this post. The Pythagorean record for 825 runs scored and 720 runs allowed is 91-71.

There's an additional complication to pitching projections, since injuries affect (effect!) playing time so much. I don't know who the Cardinals will call up from Memphis when injuries inevitably strike, but odds are they'll take the best available pitchers. Just looking at the projections, not to mention the latest medical reports, Anthony Reyes right now is probably the first guy up (his AA stint in 2004 was downright Prior-esque). I've assumed a lot of 10 inning outings on the theory that the amalgamation somehow represents the potential downside for the 2005 pitching staff.

I've spent many sleepless nights trying to address one of the pitcher projections, leading me to wonder how difficult it must be to plan for the real world contingencies involving Rick Ankiel. ZiPS has him with a 6.59 ERA in 2005, and I ended up chopping a run off that. I'm not comfortable mucking with statistical projections, but this just seems like the most realistic worst-case scenario to me.

The total innings pitched is based on the average of the last three seasons. So here's how it all breaks down:

Pitcher         ERA       IP       RA
Ankiel         5.59       50       34
Borland        4.00       10        5
Cali           4.89       10        6
Carpenter      3.81      160       74
Eldred         4.57       60       33
Flores         4.75       10        6
Isringhausen   3.00       60       23
King           3.66       60       26
Lincoln        4.08       60       29
Marquis        4.28      170       88
Morris         4.13      140       70
Mulder         3.63      200       88
Myers          4.39       40       21
Reyes, Al      4.09       60       30
Reyes, An      4.11       75       37
Rust           4.64       10        6
Suppan         4.52      190      104
Tavarez        3.25       70       27
Thompson       4.44       10        5
Wainwright     4.70       10        6
Total          4.06    1,455      718

Using ZiPS I have 656 earned runs and 62 unearned runs. I'll guess the unearned runs are a little low and make the runs allowed 720. This group presents nice upside (the best four from Mulder, Carpenter, Morris, Ankiel, Reyes, Marquis and Suppan make for an impressive-sounding post-season rotation), but 91-71 is a disappointing result.