By the Iron_Throne

So I know it’s way too early to be planning for fantasy baseball, but it’s a little slow these days waiting for pitchers and catchers, so I thought I’d talk over where your favorite Cardinals fit. It’s always hard to be objective thinking about your favorite players, so the conventional wisdom is to just take a pass on them. I know I’ve gotten burned in the past, taking Edgar Renteria at the top of the third round in a 12 team ML universe just last year, or Matt Morris in the fifth. However, the flip side of this allows you to pick up players that may be able to contribute that other managers may not have heard of, or have forgotten. Andy Benes in 2003 when he came back was a tremendous boost down the stretch, and Albert Pujols was of course the best free agent pickup ever when I got him after seeing him thrash Randy Johnson in only his second game. So caution, and a bit of pessimism can temper the heart and cool the head, and let you get on with putting a championship team together. Since the Cardinals are coming off of a World Series appearance and have a reputation as a strong lineup, look for inflation to bump up your favorite hitter at least half a round or more.

In these predictions, I’m going mostly on the basis of a 5x5 twelve team ML universe league in a serpentine draft setup. I’ll do the hitters today, and the pitchers when I get back from Vegas. The predictions are in the form AVE/R/RBI/HR/SB.

C Mike Matheny is gone, but his legacy lives on. Yadier Molina doesn’t have much of a track record, but some of the projections I’ve seen for him would make the Optimists Association of America (OAOA) scoff. Not a threat to be valuable in any category, his youth and health can only hurt you, as being in your lineup a lot could be worse than an empty slot. Do not draft under any circumstances. Playing five days a week, .250/40/45/4/2.

1B Albert Pujols. The cream of the crop. No one no matter the lineup, no matter the league, no matter the home park he is going to put up the raw numbers. A four category player due to be taken in the top two or three picks in any league. The plantar fasciitis that didn’t slow him last year is still there, so he may miss a few more games than the most durable players. He’s shown very little variation in performance, and is still very young no matter his real age, so he’s a close to a lock as there is in fantasy baseball. His relatively low walk rate for someone of his power gives more weight to his already considerable average, and hitting behind Larry Walker for the whole season should be better than being behind Edgar Renteria. The biggest strike against him is that you can pick a first baseman up six rounds later to give you 80% of his value. But with no superstar close to his total value at one of the harder to fill positions such as shortstop or second base, and no sure thing at pitcher, you pick the best single player and turn your eyes to the second round. Playing 145 games, .335/115/130/49/3.

2B With Alomar signed to Tampa, Grudzielanek looks to have the second base job locked up. Tony LaRussa however, rarely hands a job to a player of Grudz’s talent (or contract) without some kind of competition. Look for the Cardinals to take a flyer on at least one other middle infielder, most likely a gritty veteran. Grudz’s skills have been all over the place in the past, and he’s leaving Wrigley where he’s hit well in the past. He figures to hit low in the order, with only Molina behind him, and to lose at least a start a week to Miscellaneous Middle Infielder to Be Named. Not really worth a look except as a low teen NL only or a very late round pick in MI leagues. Playing in about 125 games, .265/70/60/6/8.

3B Scott Rolen is the cream of the third base crop, but there are several third basemen who can give you a reasonable approximation of Scotty. Reputation as a complete player can inflate the cost of a fantasy player, but fantasy managers get no value from his glove. I don’t believe that last year represented a leap forward for Scott, so don’t look for him to compete for the RBI title again. Look more for the numbers he put up in 2003 and before with the Cardinals. He’s a solid mid third round to early fourth round pick in ML but a good late first round pick in NL only as the NL third basemen are a thin bunch. Playing in 155 games, he’ll go .290/100/110/28/7.

SS David Eckstein looks to be a mundane but safe pick at shortstop. He’ll play a lot of games, hit a lot of balls, and very few of them will go all that far. Not really a stolen base threat anymore, he figures to run enough in the first two or three months to be on a 20-25 SB pace. But something about LaRussa says that stealing before the All-Star break is OK, but verboten after. His slightly over league average OBP at the top of a good lineup figures to get him some R, but you should never pay for R, everybody gets them but nobody really excels at it like the do in the other categories. You probably won’t be able to draft Eckstein, as someone will take him before the thirteenth round where he deserves to go. However, he has an everyday job, which is far more valuable in NL only leagues, and should go at better than half that. Getting the start every day, look for 158 games, and .265/105/30/2/12.

OF Reggie Sanders is one of those players that the savvy figure to try and take a late flyer on based on his every-other-year stats. My gut tells me that the every-other-year guys stop their pattern eventually, so look out. He’ll split his job with John Mabry and whatever else Tony has on his bench, so five starts a week is the most you can hope for barring an injury or a huge year. Not really a threat to hit thirty HR with the split playing time, his low OBP and the guys behind him will make him a bit of a liability in R, to go with an AVE that won’t help your team. Don’t get blinded by the HR, the small losses you’ll take in the other categories will hurt more than he can help. That being said, a late round flyer can pay off like it did in 2003, but someone else will most likely overdraft him based on lineup and history. A modern day Ron Gant, he’ll get about 125 games, and go .250/60/75/22/15.

OF Jim Edmonds is always been a favorite of mine, since he’s mostly been undervalued during his time with the Cards due to a perceived injury problem. He’s no more prone to catastrophic injury than any other player, and his counting stats easily justify his draft position even if he doesn’t play 150+ games. If you don’t play with CF, then his defense will only drive up his cost and lower his playing time, as he always seems to miss a game here or there from running into walls or diving for balls. You can’t expect 40+ HR from him every year, so pencil in more like 35. As a Cardinal fan, Jim is more valuable to you than to other managers, as the Post usually tells you when he’s sitting out, so you can shuffle in a backup if you’re in a daily league. He worth a mid sixth round pick to most people, and a mid fifth if you read the Post Dispatch every morning. His playing time can be a bit bi-modal, but I’m betting on 145 games and .290/90/100/35/4.

OF Larry Walker is a risky pick for more reasons than injury or leaving Colorado. Most of his value these days is tied up in OBP, and unless your league plays that, you’ll only see it in the halo effect it has on his R. The bottom of the Cardinals order looks dismal, so his RBI outlook is not good, and his power decline has been masked by Coors field. Don’t draft him looking for 30 HR or a .330 AVE and you won’t be disappointed. His risk level is high, but so is his ceiling. He didn’t play a full season last year, so he’ll get lost in some rankings. He could go as high as the sixth round in some leagues, or fall into the thirteenth. A tenth round pick should be a good balance of risk and reward, but don’t leave yourself without a backup plan. I’m betting on some nagging injuries to bring his games played down a bit to around 130, so .300/95/85/23/10.

Bench players: There are no sleepers on the bench like rookies looking for playing time or journeymen who might bust out. John Mabry revived his career last season, and his .296/.363/.504 would from last year would look great as a full timer, but he’s been let go a lot of times in the past and won’t be able to get the full time job or a repeat performance. Cedeno is little more than a reserve with no chance of getting the job even with a major injury to a starter. Taguchi figures to get some games even without a serious injury to Edmonds, but even a full time job won’t make him valuable enough to keep on your roster. Einar Diaz could get serious reps behind the plate if Molina struggles, but doesn’t figure to hit any better (or really any worse given his track record). I’m betting the Hector Luna will start the season in AAA to get more seasoning, and will only break camp with the team if either of the two starters have poor springs.

So far, the Cards hitters have been poor prospects for drafting. The Cards hitters are all well known, and suffer from World Series inflation, and even the best picks like Rolen and Edmonds can only repay your investment. Only Pujols looks to be a solid pick regardless of inflation, only because he can’t be drafted higher than first. The Cards don’t have an rookies or young players that figure to bust out, so for the most part what you see is what you get. However, in pitching, the Cards are a treasure seekers goldmine. Roundly criticized for not being able to pitch last postseason, most of the starters will be going for less than they’re worth.

the Iron_Throne