With the recent Sosa trade and subsequent Burnitz signing, the Cubs appear to be done this off-season. So how do they stack up? I'm projecting the Cubs score about 785 runs next season, basically the same as their 789 tallies in 2004. I've also got them giving up about 695 runs in 2005, 30 runs worse than in 2004 (the Cubs underperformed their Pythagorean by 5 games in 2003). That's a Pythagorean of about 90 wins, or a game behind my similar quick and dirty projection for the Cardinals.

The error bars around these kinds of projections are probably 5-6 games and that's if you have perfect information, which I don't. From where I sit, the Cards and Cubs are statistically even. (You might want to visit here before continuing.)

I could give a big list of caveats -- Will Dusty really give Dubois 300 at-bats? How much will Nomar's defense hurt? Can the young starters stay healthy? Etc. -- but I'll keep it short and say this is for entertainment purposes only. Here are the particulars; note that I've hedged a tad with the innings for the Cubs' Big Four starters:

Name            AVG   OBP   SLG    AB      XR
Barrett        .278  .338  .463   400    59.8 
Blanco         .201  .258  .343   150    12.5 
Burnitz        .232  .311  .461   450    64.9 
Cedeno         .228  .269  .313    25     2.1 
DuBois         .272  .345  .500   300    50.1 
Garciaparra    .288  .339  .487   550    86.4 
Hairston Jr.   .286  .354  .387   400    54.3 
Hollandsworth  .266  .333  .432   400    54.8 
Jackson        .244  .301  .367    25     2.7 
Kelton         .242  .305  .415   100    12.7 
Kopitzke       .217  .271  .261    25     1.6 
Lee            .280  .375  .512   600   113.2 
Lewis          .262  .321  .383    25     3.0 
Macias         .239  .276  .347   150    13.5 
Patterson      .275  .320  .449   600    85.3 
Perez          .238  .273  .313   100     7.8 
Ramirez        .287  .346  .522   550    94.8 
Reyes          .295  .335  .440    25     3.4 
Walker         .278  .341  .419   400    55.2 
Pitchers       .162  .186  .227   325     7.4
Total          .264  .328  .440 5,600   785.6

Name                   ERA     IP        RA
Borowski              3.63     60      25.8
Dempster              5.11     60      37.4
Farnsworth            4.16     60      30.4
Fox                   4.86     30      17.8
Guzman                4.83     30      17.4
Hawkins               3.12     60      22.3
Leicester             5.45     45      30.0
Maddux                3.98    190      92.3
Mitre                 4.50     45      24.5
Prior                 2.79    190      64.4
Remlinger             4.34     60      32.1
Rusch                 4.22    160      82.0
Wellemeyer            5.00     30      18.1
Williamson            3.97     60      28.5
Wood                  3.91    190      90.9
Zambrano              3.52    190      80.8
Total                 3.92  1,460     694.7