Story of the Year?

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Curveblog

the defense is an enormous concern. pinto and chronicles' range/run estimates may have limitations, but they provide an excellent starting point for understanding what may be the 2005 cardinals' make-or-break issue.

K Rates for Cardinal Starters next year:

Player      k/9
Mulder      5.58
Carpenter   7.52
Marquis     6.17
Morris      5.84
Suppan      5.27

The Cardinals were second in the majors in total chances last year. The Cardinals are very dependent on their defense and they will be again next year. The consesus (pulled from curvblog) is that Eckstien alone will cost the Cardinals 18-30 runs next year.

It will be an interesting year.

Posted by Josh at February 8, 2005 05:27 PM
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I wouldn't call it a consensus so much as a concern. MGL's UZR and Tom Tippett's Diamond Mind ranking say Eckstein should be at least average in 2005. Maybe they're missing something that Pinto's picking up, but it could be the other way as well.

Posted by: Rob at February 8, 2005 08:05 PM

What's with the site width? It's way wider than my browser window, which hasn't been the case until I got back from out of town today.

Posted by: MO Boiler at February 8, 2005 10:02 PM

that's a fair comment, rob. pinto's method for measuring defense isn't the only one out there, and even he would concede it's not perfect. the thing that got me started on eckstein in the first place was his range factor in 2004 ---- a meager 3.83 per 9 innings, which was a nightmarish 0.75 below the league average. eckstein's range factor has been below league average every year, but 0.75 off the pace? that's nearly a play a game. he was 29 yrs old last season --- could be he lost a step off what was already barely adequate range.

it will bear watching, that's for sure. here's a link to pinto's data

Posted by: l boros at February 8, 2005 10:09 PM


link to pinto didn't work . . . . what the f, it's http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/008292.php

Posted by: l boros at February 8, 2005 10:11 PM

Eck's range factor is below average but the Angels have had a flyball staff, something like 28th in the majors in GB/FB ratio in 2004, according to ESPN.com. ESPN also says Eck led MLB SS in ZR in 2003, which is A-OK IMHO.

Posted by: Rob at February 9, 2005 11:30 AM


the point about gb/fb ratio is well taken, but i ask again: 0.75 plays per 9 below average?

Posted by: l boros at February 9, 2005 02:27 PM

Rob,

And the '04 Angels were towards the top (can't remember exactly where) in strikeouts, too.

Posted by: MO Boiler at February 11, 2005 05:13 PM