By the Iron_Throne

Two weeks ago, I covered Cardinals hitters and their draft positions in fantasy baseball. I found that the Cards hitters are mostly solid picks with little upside for where they will be drafted. However, in pitching, the Cards are a treasure seeker's goldmine. Roundly criticized for not being able to pitch last postseason, most of the starters will be going for less than they’re worth. Even though the Cardinals staff was the best in the NL, the value isn’t concentrated in easily draftable parts. While it’s super fantastic that the middle relief and bullpen was so great, outside of a closer and the top setup men, you rarely have any of those guys on your roster. What the Cards have is good value in their starters spread out over about six pitchers. But by drafting for value and not star power, you can fill out your fantasy staff.

Pitcher predictions will be in the form W/K/S/ERA/WHIP.

SP Mark Mulder is the lone exception to the starters being unknown. His face was in a lot of papers this off season, and will get a bump from being a “number one.” Facing pitchers two or three times a game should boost his Ks. Pitchers are always a more uncertain bet than hitters, but injured pitchers usually say stay away. He’ll most likely be a solid pick when he goes at the middle of the fourth round in your league, but you can get someone of equal value there who didn’t have a terrible second half or lose a year to a hip injury. The extra wins he’ll get in front of this lineup should almost make it worth it, but let someone else take the risk. Remember, if one of your top players goes down, you’ll be replacing him with someone who starts the season on the FA list. Leave risk for the mid rounds or other people. If he’s healthy he’ll give you 190 innings at 17/140/0/3.35/1.19.

SP Chris Carpenter will likely be forgotten by most people outside of Saint Louis, or discounted because of his season-ending injury along with his history. However, he was nearly healthy enough to pitch in the World Series, so he should be fine to start the season. A better health risk than Mulder in my opinion, he’ll repay your pick in W alone, and his K should justify his innings pitched. The well above average ERA and WHIP he should post will just be gravy. He’ll probably be a bargain when you take him in the ninth, but he’ll be under the radar enough that there’s no reason to take him earlier. He’ll go at least 200 innings, and be as good as Mulder at 18/160/0/3.45/1.20.

SP Jason Marquis is a medium risk, medium reward pitcher that at least will use your innings and not hurt your team, which is rarer for a SP than you might think. Don’t pay for him based on last year’s ERA, he was most likely having a career year. Expect him to add a little less than half a run to his ERA, but keep an eye on him if he falls to far. His WHIP was a concern last year, but will regress a bit, even with a shaky middle infield. With the least name recognition on the staff, he may fall farther than others on the team, but has a some upside and good win potential. He may be there in the eleventh, when a pick is merited, but don’t overreach. Another workhorse, look for 200 innings of 15/135/0/4.00/1.35.

SP Jeff Suppan will go for more than he’s worth, as the only thing of value he’ll bring is his lineup. With a better name than Marquis, he’ll get picked by someone before you get there, but his solid numbers last year are likely a fluke at 16/110/0/4.16/1.37 When last we saw the real Jeff Suppan, he was a league average pitcher, and now he’s two years older. With not much upside to speak of and few strikeouts, he’ll be a good placeholder while you look for hot rookies or whoever is starting against the Mariners that day. Take him in the fifteenth if you’re afraid of risks, but that pick would be better spent gambling on a rookie or someone who was injured last year. A pedestrian 210 innings of 15/115/0/4.40/1.35.

SP Matt Morris will also far farther than he should, and most who pick him up will immediately place him on the DL while his shoulder heals. He still struck out 5.9 batters per nine, and his 1.29 WHIP was better than his 4.72 ERA last year. His recovery timetable will be well publicized, slated now for early June, and his poor season will overcome his name recognition. He’ll go anywhere from the fifteenth round to undrafted, and if your league has two DL spots per team, he’s a solid eighteenth/nineteenth round pick. If he misses two months, he may struggle to even repay this investment, especially if he’s on a short leash when he gets back. But how often do you get good value in the nineteenth round? Mine usually are by the wayside before April is over. A midseason start means 110 innings, 9/90/0/3.90/1.25.

SP Rick Ankiel is the true gem of the staff. Even the sharpest managers are going to let him go, and when you pick him with your last pick you’ll hear uncontrollable laughter or sulfurous curses depending on how good your league is. Better than most young pitchers who have to fight to win a job out of middle relief, he’ll be handed a chance to show his stuff right out of the gate, even though he may be skipped a bit at first. Essentially risk free, you can leave him on the bench until he proves himself if you want, and if he flames out it won’t cost you anything but a roster spot. With a ceiling as high as Santana or Johnson, this is where being a Cardinals fan pays off. W he’ll get from the uniform, and he’s always had the Ks. You’ll get him and he could easily push you into contention. Of course he could also flame out and never be heard from again. But unlike Griffey he won’t cost you a dime. If you forget about him on draft day, he’ll still be there the next day once you realize you drafted the wrong Dan Kolb. I’m picking him to keep a rotation spot for the whole season, and put up 18/180/0/3.45/1.25 in 190 innings. Can’t beat that.

RP Jason Isringhausen has been one of the more overrated closers in fantasy the last couple of years, always finding a way to end up short on S for excellent teams. Last year was his first solid year picking up 47 wins while the Cards cruised to 105. Suffering the curse of the high scoring team, he’ll always have fewer S than a Gagne. He won’t get enough K to make a difference, and his ERA isn’t small enough to have a noticeable effect, so you’re only drafting his S. The Cards figure to be a great team again this year, and I haven’t heard anything about lingering injuries, so figure him for 3/75/40/3.50/1.20 in 65 games.

Middle relievers Julian Tavarez and Ray King are two great pitchers that have fantasy only if you have more lineup spots than inning pitched. If you can fit them in, they will give you good K for the innings they use, and higher W rates than even the best starters. Tavarez is coming along well after his disastrous NLCS, and should be the top setup man for Izzy and should step into his shoes should another injury befall him. King would also get some S from an Izzy injury and put up better rate stats than Tavarez. I generally don’t play in leagues that allow much room to fit in any but the topmost setup men, and neither King nor Tavarez have the 10+ K/9 needed. No other relief pitcher figures to have much fantasy impact this season, as the likes of Carmen Cali and Cal Eldred and the rest of the middle relievers won’t have the stats to make a dent, and no young pitchers like Wainwright look to be needed for the rotation this season.

So once again the Cards are a mixed bag on draft day, with name recognition causing inflation for everyone except for Rick Ankiel. The Cards look to be solid picks across the board with very little risk for the investment, and the bonus wins will keep roster fillers like Marquis and Suppan from burning you. If you spent your picks to take every one of the Cardinals you’d have a staff that would keep you in contention while leaving a lot of high picks to take your hitters.

the Iron_Throne