With returning outfield starters Reggie Sanders, Jim Edmonds, and Larry Walker beginning the season at ages 37, 34, and 38 respectively (Edmonds turns 35 on June 27, thus making 2005 his age-35 season), durability and age-related performance declines are going to be a major question for the Cardinals in 2005. In that regard, I thought it'd be appropriate to look at the precedents -- in the form of their age-based similar players, courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com -- to see what kind of production we can expect from that trio in the coming months.

Some notes before I begin:

First off, when I averaged OPS+ among all the players in each group, I weighted it based on plate appearances. Also, when I computed average games played and average plate appearances, I assumed the same number of players played in the first season in question as in the second. Thus, I used zero games/plate appearances for any players who retired in the second season -- unless there was a player that didn't play the first season in that group, in which case I left one blank on the spreadsheet. And finally, the Sanders and Edmonds photos are courtesy the Associated Press, while the Walker photo is courtesy the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

LF - Reggie Sanders
age 36 (2004): 135 G, 487 PA, .260/.315/.482, 105 OPS+
Career: .267/.344/.488, 117 OPS+

Reggie had a decent year in '04, for a player that only cost the team $2 million. He'll get a raise to $4 million in '05, so perhaps he'll feel obligated to increase his production a bit, no? Here are his ten most similar batters through age 36, with similarity scores as well as age 36 & 37 statistics:

1. Ray Lankford (944)
age 36 (2003): 0 G
age 37 (2004): 92 G, 235 PA, .255/.349/.425, 102 OPS+
2. Eric Davis (915)
age 36 (1998): 131 G, 508 PA, .327/.388/.582, 151 OPS+
age 37 (1999): 58 G, 223 PA, .257/.359/.403, 93 OPS+
3. Ron Gant (912)
age 36 (2001): 93 G, 292 PA, .258/.345/.452, 95 OPS+
age 37 (2002): 102 G, 353 PA, .262/.338/.489, 123 OPS+
4. Bill Nicholson (911)
age 36 (1951): 85 G, 196 PA, .241/.342/.459, 114 OPS+
age 37 (1952): 55 G, 106 PA, .273/.390/.511, 149 OPS+
5. Kirk Gibson (905)
age 36 (1993): 116 G, 454 PA, .261/.337/.432, 107 OPS+
age 37 (1994): 98 G*, 382 PA, .276/.358/.548, 130 OPS+ (* - team played 115 games)
6. Darryl Strawberry (896)
age 36 (1998): 101 G, 345 PA, .247/.354/.542, 131 OPS+
age 37 (1999): 24 G, 66 PA, .327/.514/.612, 194 OPS+
7. Ben Oglivie (896)
age 36 (1985): 101 G, 394 PA, .290/.354/.440, 117 OPS+
age 37 (1986): 103 G, 384 PA, .283/.334/.390, 95 OPS+
8. Bobby Thomson (893)
age 36 (1960): 43 G, 133 PA, .250/.308/.417, 92 OPS+
age 37 (1961): 0 G
9. David Justice (888)
age 36 (2002): 118 G, 471 PA, .266/.376/.410, 106 OPS+
age 37 (2003): 0 G
10. Rick Monday (886)
age 36 (1982): 104 G, 254 PA, .257/.372/.481, 109 OPS+
age 37 (1983): 99 G, 208 PA, .247/.351/.399, 73 OPS+

Averages:
age 36: 99 G, 339 PA, .273/.358/.474, 117 OPS+ (13 HR, 49 RBI)
age 37: 70 G, 217 PA, .268/.355/.458, 111 OPS+ (8 HR, 31 RBI)

Several of these players appear to have had injuries or not started during the seasons in question, which is to be expected given their ages. (This will become a common theme.) Sanders' age-36 season seems most similar to those of Gant, Gibson, and Oglivie. In their age-37 seasons, Gant stayed fairly consistent -- if not slightly improving -- both performance-wise and health-wise, Oglivie declined to a below-average hitter for the first time in thirteen years in what would would be his final season, and Gibson had an excellent year -- he likely would've finished with 30 HR provided the 1994 strike didn't happen, and he remained healthy. As far as the combined rate stats go, the decline wasn't terrible at all -- however, this group's sample sizes are slightly smaller than the other two to come.

Sanders has never been the kind of player to play 162 games; his career high is 140 with the Giants in 2002. However, this strikes me as being due to his one-dimensional nature as a player rather than any serious durability problems, since he's been between 126 and 140 games played six of the last seven seasons. So, it seems that if he continues that trend by staying healthy, he'll probably put up slightly better numbers than last season -- I'll throw out an optimistic guess of .270/.320/.490, with Reggie once again playing about 130 games as a starter/platoon partner with John Mabry. Unfortunately, if he's not healthy, then all hell could break loose (which is the case with Edmonds and Walker, as well) -- as evidenced by the .232/.302/.403 line he produced in 2000, when he only played 103 games due to injuries. Despite that risk, I'd still take the over on .800 for Reggie's 2005 OPS if I were a betting man.

CF - Jim Edmonds
age 34 (2004): 153 G, PA, .301/.418/.643, 173 OPS+
Career: .294/.384/.544, 138 OPS+

Before I go any further, I have to admit that I absolutely worship James Patrick Edmonds. I'll even go to the lengths of calling it a man-crush. The guy plays his guts out with a flair for the dramatic, and to top it all off, he's damn good, too. He is coming off his best season in a Cardinal uniform, not to mention of his career, in 2004. However, Jimmy's season will likely be remembered most by his 12th-inning walkoff home run (pictured above) in Game 6 of the NLCS and his single-handedly keeping the Cards within reach in Game 7's early stages with a ridiculous diving catch the very next evening. Since joining the Cardinals in 2000, he's reinvented himself from enigma to potential future Hall of Famer with five consecutive excellent seasons. Here are Jimmy's ten most similar batters through age 34, again with similarity scores and age 34 and 35 statistics:

1. Tim Salmon (915)
age 34 (2003): 148 G, 621 PA, .275/.374/.464, 127 OPS+
age 35 (2004): 60 G, 206 PA, .253/.306/.323, 65 OPS+
2. Ellis Burks (899)
age 34 (1999): 120 G, 469 PA, .282/.394/.569, 153 OPS+
age 35 (2000): 122 G, 458 PA, .344/.419/.606, 166 OPS+
3. Fred Lynn (895)
age 34 (1986): 112 G, 456 PA, .287/.371/.499, 136 OPS+
age 35 (1987): 111 G, 438 PA, .253/.320/.487, 113 OPS+
4. Larry Doby (890)
age 34 (1958): 89 G, 276 PA, .283/.348/.490, 131 OPS+
age 35 (1959): 39 G, 124 PA, .230/.290/.301, 62 OPS+
5. David Justice (888)
age 34 (2000): 146 G, 605 PA, .286/.377/.584, 136 OPS+
age 35 (2001): 111 G, 439 PA, .241/.333/.430, 100 OPS+
6. Wally Berger (885)
age 34 (1940): 22 G, 47 PA, .302/.362/.419, 118 OPS+
age 35 (1941): 0 G
7. Hack Wilson (884)
age 34 (1934): 74 G, 235 PA, .245/.383/.365, 104 OPS+
age 35 (1935): 0 G
8. Larry Walker (881)
age 34 (2001): 142 G, 601 PA, .350/.449/.662, 160 OPS+
age 35 (2002): 136 G, 553 PA, .338/.421/.602, 146 OPS+
9. Willie Stargell (877)
age 34 (1974): 140 G, 605 PA, .301/.401/.537, 168 OPS+
age 35 (1975): 124 G, 526 PA, .295/.375/.516, 147 OPS+
10. Mo Vaughn (876)
age 34 (2002): 139 G, 558 PA, .259/.349/.456, 116 OPS+
age 35 (2003): 27 G, 96 PA, .190/.323/.329, 72 OPS+

Averages:
age 34: 113 G, 447 PA, .289/.386/.526, 139 OPS+ (22 HR, 72 RBI)
age 35: 73 G, 284 PA, .286/.365/.499, 125 OPS+ (12 HR, 45 RBI)

Jimmy's age-34 season was better than anyone on this list, but it most closely resembles those of Walker and Stargell. Both of them remained fairly healthy in their age-35 season and produced good, if not spectacular numbers -- although a slight decline from the previous year. Burks' age-34 season was also close, however, and he proceeded to have a monster year at age 35, hitting .344. The other side of the coin, however, shows Lynn and Justice, who had fairly significant dropoffs in production at 35. And finally, there's the recent cases of Salmon and Vaughn, both of whom completely fell apart between these two seasons. Vaughn retired after 2003, while Salmon will try to make a comeback in 2005. The average rate statistics for Edmonds' similar players do fall off more significantly than Sanders'; however, Edmonds had a better age 36 season than all of them, and appears to still be in his prime, so even if he does lose 14 points in OPS+, he'll still be an elite player.

Edmonds' durability was a question as an Angel, but he's managed to record at least 137 games played and 531 plate appearances every year since coming to St. Louis. I'd say that as long as he doesn't try to play through a major injury like during the second half of 2003, he'll do better than Walker and Stargell did at 35, by putting up at least .280/.390/.580 or so.

RF - Larry Walker
age 37 (2004): 82 G, 316 PA, .298/.424/.589, 152 OPS+
Career: .314/.401/.568, 140 OPS+

Larry was hurt for most of the first half of the 2004 season, but came back to put together a solid half-season and an excellent postseason, his first since 1995. He was traded from the Rockies to the Cardinals in the beginning of August, and his bat survived the drop to sea level without too much of a problem -- his OPS+ before the trade was 160; after the trade, it was 146. Not a catastrophic dropoff by any means. However, the fact remains that he's coming off an injury that kept him out those several months last season, which could affect his performance in addition to costing him games. So here are Larry's ten most similar batters through age 37, again with similarity scores and age 37 and 38 statistics:

1. Ellis Burks (891)
age 37 (2002): 138 G, 570 PA, .301/.362/.541, 134 OPS+
age 38 (2003): 55 G, 228 PA, .263/.360/.419, 112 OPS+
2. Chuck Klein (880)
age 37 (1942): 14 G, 14 PA, .071/.071/.071, -57 OPS+
age 38 (1943): 12 G, 20 PA, .100/.100/.100, -41 OPS+
3. Duke Snider (876)
age 37 (1964): 91 G, 189 PA, .210/.302/.323, 75 OPS+
age 38 (1965): 0 G
4. Willie Stargell (843)
age 37 (1977): 63 G, 222 PA, .274/.383/.548, 144 OPS+
age 38 (1978): 122 G, 450 PA, .295/.382/.567, 158 OPS+
5. Johnny Mize (837)
age 37 (1950): 90 G, 305 PA, .277/.351/.595, 142 OPS+
age 38 (1951): 113 G, 372 PA, .259/.339/.398, 102 OPS+
6. Reggie Smith (833)
age 37 (1982): 106 G, 398 PA, .284/.364/.470, 133 OPS+
age 38 (1983): 0 G
7. Earl Averill (822)
age 37 (1939): 111 G, 425 PA, .264/.353/.464, 102 OPS+
age 38 (1940): 64 G, 124 PA, .280/.309/.381, 71 OPS+
8. Dave Winfield (821)
age 37 (1989): 0 G
age 38 (1990): 132 G, 537 PA, .267/.338/.453, 122 OPS+
9. Dave Parker (820)
age 37 (1988): 101 G, 411 PA, .257/.314/.406, 103 OPS+
age 38 (1989): 144 G, 600 PA, .264/.308/.432, 111 OPS+
10. Fred Lynn (814)
age 37 (1989): 117 G, 406 PA, .241/.328/.371, 99 OPS+
age 38 (1990): 90 G, 223 PA, .240/.315/.357, 85 OPS+

Averages:
age 37: 92 G, 327 PA, .267/.345/.468, 117 OPS+ (14 HR, 49 RBI)
age 38: 81 G, 284 PA, .266/.336/.441, 115 OPS+ (11 HR, 44 RBI)

Klein, Snider, and Averill all played in a different era where most players were retired by this age, and thus probably aren't applicable to our situation. The two players who had age-37 seasons similar to Walker's are Mize and that man Stargell, again. I'll consider Winfield as similar, also, since he lost his entire age-37 season to injury. The three offer a spectrum similar to that of Sanders' comparables. Stargell played most of a full season and hit better at 38 than 37, and Winfield played most of a full season at a decent level at 38, but Mize, despite recording more plate appearances, lost nearly 200 points of slugging percentage. Other worrisome signs include Burks and Lynn, who became part-time players at 38 due to injuries and lack of production. The average rate stats decline a little bit -- more in the raw numbers than the park-adjusted OPS+, however, which is a good sign for Walker.

Larry, to me, is going to be the toughest Cardinal outfielder to read in 2005, both health-wise and production-wise. He's had two seasons in the past five where he hasn't played 100 games, but he also had a season in which he played 143 games but only slugged .476 as a Rockie (2003). His numbers as a Cardinal were very good (.280/.393/.560), and hopefully will stay that way if he's healthy. I'll go out on a limb and say that, when Larry plays and hits second, ahead of Pujols-Rolen-Edmonds, I don't see why he can't do at least .280/.380/.580 once more. The biggest key for him, though, will be playing 120+ games -- because Mabry isn't going to do .280/.380/.550. Mabry may have another solid season, but last year's career year for him of .296/.363/.504 doesn't even sniff at what Walker might do if healthy.

I wasn't sure what I'd get from this exercise, other than a lot of numbers running through my head. But I think it proved to me that despite the age of the Cardinal outfield, if they're able to remain healthy (which I'm confident/hopeful that they will do), their production shouldn't decline much. And that's a good sign, given that the Cards could use big years out of all three of them.