Joe Sheehan, a Baseball Prospectus author who still doesn't think last year's Cardinals were for real, is at it again:

I was asked last week to name a team I think is on the rise and one I think is ready for a fall. It's a standard spring topic, but one that this year is interesting because of the sheer number of teams who seem to be jumping into each category. I think the Blue Jays, Orioles, Mets and Reds are all in for big jumps from their 2004 performances, while the Yankees, Braves, Cardinals and Giants all look to me to be aging and unlikely to continue their recent success.

One of these years---say, in 2013, when Albert has an extended DL stint---the Cardinals will finish below .500 and Sheehan will say "HA! I told you so!"

Throughout 2004, when the Cardinals were on pace early to win over 100 games, there was Joe Sheehan over at Baseball Prospectus (sorry, no links---subscription site) reminding everyone that it's a long season and the Birds would come fluttering back to earth.

I suppose he got his vindication when they ran into destiny's darlings in the World Series, but still, this is a team that led the league both in runs scored, with 855, and in fewest runs allowed, with 659. I mean, they had to be doing something right...

And now, because of all their old players, once again Sheehan looks at the Cardinals' roster and sees a team unlikely to be good (or at least, "unlikely to continue their recent sucess"). Now, by "recent success," if he means "105 wins," well that's a no-brainer. But if he means that the Cardinals are a good candidate to drop below 90 wins, well, that's just crazy talk.

Of 14 position players likely to make the roster, I count 10--including 6 of 8 starters---that will be 30 or older on opening day.

The pitchers aren't as long in the tooth, as the oldest starters are 30 (Matt Morris turns 31 in August) and Mulder (27), Marquis (26), and Ankiel (25) are still relatively youthful. Cal Eldred is the lone pen graybeard at 37, while Jason Isringhausen, Ray King and Julian Tavarez are all 31 or 32.

So who are these old players upon whom the Cardinals success lies? Let's examine these dinosaurs and see how they might reasonably be expected to fare in 2005. (As we all know, players get injured, and older players may get injured more frequently, but I'm not going to say "Player X is due for an injury this year, now that he's 35"—unless there's a reason to think that may be the case.). Players listed in age order:

Larry Walker, 38
Contribution to '04 success: Limited, in that he joined team in August and only played in 27% of team's games.
Prognosis for '05: Even if the injury-prone Walker misses 2/3 of the season with injuries, he'll play in more than last year's total of 44 games, meaning his contribution should exceed last year's. His 1.013 OPS after joining the Cardinals (6 NL players had higher OPS for the season) last year proves that he's still a force.
Good chance for improvement.

Reggie Sanders, 37
Contribution to '04 success: Moderate. He started 112 games in the outfield, and ranked 9th among NL RFers in Value Over Replacement Player, continuing his decade-long odd/even production cycle in which his OPS in even years is about 150 points lower than in odd years.
Prognosis for '05: If he keeps his remarkable pattern intact, Sanders would perform along the lines of his 2003 season (.285/.345/.567), which would be fantastic. But he is now 37, and as we all know, 37-year-olds are in decline. So let's assume that any age-related decline in Sanders---who is still in great shape---is offset by his odd-year performance boost, and it's a wash.
Expect more of the same, as other than age, no evidence to suggest fall-off.

So Taguchi, turns 36 in July
Contribution to '04 success: Minimal. Did get 36 starts, or about one-fifth of a season's worth, in the outfield. He's a fifth outfielder.
Prognosis for '05: Can't see a huge swing one way or the other, and it won't matter too much regardless.
Expect more of the same.

Jim Edmonds, turns 35 at end of June
Contribution to '04 success: Huge. Set career high in OPS while playing Gold Glove defense and making over 140 starts.
Prognosis for '05: People like Sheehan and Will Carroll have been predicting a prolonged DL visit for Edmonds for years now, yet, despite the occasional aches and pains, he's averaged 147 games a year as a Cardinal and has missed more than 18 games once. Though he is 34 now, almost 35, one needs to expect a decline someday, but Edmonds has only seemed to get better with age.
Expect more of the same.

Mark Grudzielanek, turns 35 at end of June
Position's contribution to '04 success: Moderate. Grudz replaces Tony Womack, whose career year in 2004 represented no more than an average year among NL 2B.
Prognosis for '05: Injuries limited Grudz to a half-season in 2004, so this recent history may be of concern. In two seasons with the Cubs, he was around a .780 OPS, which exceeds the 2004 production of both Womack (.734) and the departed Edgar Renteria (.728). But, those two seasons followed three sub-par years for the Dodgers.
The 2B position shouldn't expect a huge swing one way or the other.

John Mabry, 34
contribution to '04 success: Fair. Bench player made 62 starts at four positions, and had outstanding .296/.363/.506 line, his 2nd .800+ OPS season in 3 years after a career of never sniffing it.
Prognosis for '05: A guy like Mabry---old, slow, and without a recent history of sustained excellence---seems like a prime candidate for a decline.
Expect a decline.

Einar Diaz, 32
Position's contribution to '04 success: Fair. As the back-up catcher, Diaz replaces Yadier Molina, who is the new starter for 2005. Molina started nearly a quarter of the team's games and out-hit Matheny, providing great value off the bench.
Prognosis for '05: While Molina is better offensively than last year's starter, the same cannot be said for Diaz, who is a miserable hitter, providing almost nothing with the bat: he's had an OPS below .600 in 2 of the past 3 seasons.
Expect a decline from the back-up catcher postion.

Roger Cedeno, 30 (31 in August)
Contribution to '04 success: Minimal. Performance may have exceeded expectations, but when all is said and done he's a fourth outfielder who had a .702 OPS after a .698 OPS in 2003 with the Mets.
Prognosis for '05: He's still just 30, and though it's not like he's been a world-beater the last several years, there's no reason to expect him to fall off a cliff.
Expect more of the same.

David Eckstein, 30
Position's contribution to '04 success: Moderate. Replaces Gold Glover and All Star Edgar Renteria, who fell off quite a bit from huge 2003. Doesn't walk much, has no power, and while steady afield, there are concerns about range and arm strength.
Prognosis for '05: Has had an OPS between .650–.712 in 3 of 4 ML seasons, and the average of that range represents a fair drop-off from Renteria's production. Plus, he looks like he's throwing his shoulder out with every throw, which may suggest an injury waiting to happen.
Expect a decline at shortstop.

Scott Rolen, 30
contribution to '04 success: Huge. Career year with .314/.409/.598 line. Achy knee, then strained calf, affected him down the stretch and in the postseason.
Prognosis for '05: Rolen's knee is a concern that could land him on the DL for an extended period. If healthy, he should be among the best in the league at his position, but 2004 may have been a peak that will be hard to duplicate.
Expect a decline, but still a player among best at his position.

Addressing Sheehan's point about a "fall," one must look at where production is likely to drop off from its 2004 levels, and I just don't see that many scary areas. Sure, of the 10 players 30 or older listed above I see a chance for decline in four of them, but two are those four are bench players, another is coming off a career year (Rolen), and the fourth is David Eckstein, who, while admittedly a downgrade from Renteria, is filling a hole that had a .728 OPS last year---hardly giant shoes. Walker's and Sanders's age, and Walker's history may be cause for some concern, but the corner outfield spots were two of the weaker spots in the lineup in 2004.

If Rolen plays 140+ games, the Cardinals will be considerably better than league average at 3B, and by the same token, they can expect continued best-in-league performance from two positions (1b-Pujols, and CF-Edmonds)---which no other team in the league can say---and decent, league-average-or-better production from 3 or 4 other positions (c-Molina, 2b-Grudz, lf-Sanders, rf-Walker).

So it seems as if Sheehan's assessment must come down to assuming injuries for 2005, and after the Cardinals' extremely lucky 2004 in that department, they may as due as any team. Still, that seems a strange reasoning—they'll probably get hurt—to count the Cardinals out for 2005.