Frequent SABR-L contributor Dan Fox has been sorting through play-by-play data looking at baserunning. His conclusion is that there's a minor, but discernible, advantage when including baserunning in player evaluation, maybe worth ten runs at the extremes. Another article from Dan (dig the Andy Van Slyke quote) suggests that one of the many reasons the Cubs underperformed in 2004 was baserunning.

Baseball Analysts has a preview of the 2005 NL Central. Nothing earth-shattering here as they expect it to run Cardinals-Cubs-everyone else, but it's a good read. I haven't crunched the numbers completely to my satisfaction, but the few ZiPS-Diamond Mind simulations I've run agree with this, though the Brewers look a little better than people seem to expect. One other little thing I want to point out about the article is that Jeff Suppan probaby didn't pitch over his head last year. ERA+ isn't a perfect stat, but it's a good starting point and from 1999 to 2004 Suppan's ERA+'s go like this: 109, 103, 112, 97, 105, 100. After this past offseason (Eric Milton = $25 million) we should expect the Cards to pick up Suppan's option for 2006, unless he goes Morris on us.

Speaking of Suppan, he pitched two scoreless innings in yesterday's spring training game. The Cardinals shutout the Marlins, but for my money the most amazing thing about the boxscore is the attendance. Yesterday 7,053 people attended the Cards' spring training game after 7,438 showed on Friday. I hear a lot about the decline of baseball, but those are the kinds of crowds the old St. Louis Browns drew during the regular season.