Loss of Haren may hurt
« How Ugly is Our Bench? | Main | Spring time »In a Baseball Prospectus discussion on Monday, Elizabeth in Seattle asks BP author Jonah Keri what he thinks of some of the A's new pitchers:
Jonah Keri: Love Haren. Big strikeout rates, he'll have a more forgiving park--I'm writing an article in the neart future for our syndication partner, the New York Sun, and I can tell you that Haren will be on my list of 10 breakout players for 2005.
Isn't he a little high on the guy?
I mean, sure, Haren led the PCL in strikeouts (despite spending 2 months on the big-league roster) and had a 150-to-33 K/BB ratio. But you EXPECT that from a 6'5" 23-year-old. Isn't Keri forgetting about that emergency start when Haren was called up from Memphis for one game at Wrigley in June? The kid got lit up for 10 runs in 3-2/3 innings!!!
Although, gee, after coming back up for good in late July, Haren DID look pretty good:
Haren, all games except emergency start at Wrigley in June:
42.1ip... 35h....13 runs .... 32k/14bb .....2.76 era ...3hr.... 1.15 WHIP
And then Haren pitched 5 games in the postseason, allowing 2 runs in 8-1/3 innings.
Still, I'm sure LaRussa had to have questions about the rookie's guts after that debacle in Wrigley. While it might be nice to have a young, strong, cheap, quality arm locked up for the next few years, there's no substitute for a veteran pitcher who knows how to win games, and if trading Haren (and Calero, and Barton) is what it took to get a guy like that in Mark Mulder, then I'm sure Walt couldn't resist.
And I'm sorry if I'm living in the past, but here are Danny Haren's and Kiko Calero's combined spring stats so far this year:
21.2ip....15h...2 runs....15k/5bb...0hr... 0.83era.
And Mark Mulder:
14ip......19h....10 runs....8k/5bb...1hr.... 5.14era
Now, two of these three pitchers threw great the second half of last year, and one of them threw very poorly. So far, the same has held true this spring. Anyone want to bet that things will suddenly change once the regular season gets underway?
Posted by: salvo at March 23, 2005 01:56 PMI'll take that bet.
Don't get me wrong, I like Haren and Calero a lot. In fact, I think they were both fairly underrated. I wish we could have gotten Mulder without having to give up both of them, but I think it'll work out good enough for us in the end.
I wonder if the A's ever had any interest in Ankiel? Maybe Walt's kicking himself now for not sending him along instead of one of these guys. Not that I'm saying he should have. Back when the trade was made, most of us were finally starting to think Ankiel was going to be pitching (and pitching well) in the majors this year.
Posted by: John at March 23, 2005 06:12 PMOops. Looked like Haren just got the Birdwatch jinx.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=250323111
Posted by: Rob at March 23, 2005 07:51 PMMy god, think of the power at our hands if there is a Birdwatch jinx!!! It must, however, be exercised with wisdom and discretion.
Posted by: salvo at March 24, 2005 06:46 AMAnd now here, from his "breakout" article, is Keri's take on Danny Haren's upside for 2005:
Dan Haren, SP, Athletics
2004 46 IP, 4.50 EqERA
2005 proj. 160 IP, 4.41 EqERA
Forget building for the future for a moment. In snagging the 24-year-old Haren as part of the three-player package from the Cardinals for Mark Mulder, A’s GM Billy Beane may have found a pitcher who’ll outperform his departed co-ace. Haren has posted gaudy strikeout totals throughout his minor league career, a principal indicator of success for a pitching prospect. Combine Haren’s strong performance record with Mulder’s injury concerns and diminished performance last season, and this may be an instant upgrade.
Better still, Haren will cost millions less, allowing the A’s to spend elsewhere. The so-called rebuilding project in Oakland will happen much quicker than many think; the A’s could be playing meaningful baseball this September, especially if Haren comes through on his immense potential. With a humming fastball he regularly throws for strikes (150 K, 33 BB in 128 IP last year at Triple-A Memphis) and good enough off-speed stuff to keep the ball in the park, he could be huge in ’05.
Posted by: salvo at March 24, 2005 12:01 PMThis trade is definitely one people will be talking about for years to come. Calero and Haren are great pitchers, and it will surprise me if Calero doesn't at least get a chance to be a starter at some point in the future. But Mulder is good now. I think Jockety made a reasonable gamble to have all the pieces this year while Edmonds and Walker are healthy and not too old. If it pays off and the Birds dominate the NL like they should this year, I think it will have been worth making Oakland a perenial contender from '07-'10.
Posted by: Bill at March 25, 2005 02:18 PM