Projected Standings

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Nate Silver has crunched all the PECOTA numbers and concludes that the Cards are a 92-70 team and the Cubs are an 89-73 team. Naturally I'm inclined to agree. Of course a year ago PECOTA had the Cubs and Astros about three games ahead of the Cardinals.

Perhaps more amazing is PECOTA's projection for the NL MVP race: (1) Pujols, (2) Edmonds, (3) Rolen, (4) Bonds. Bonds has more impressive rate stats, but playing time looks to be an issue. That would earn a "duh" in light of recent events, but PECOTA apparently wasn't aware of Bonds's rehab problems.

Even more amazing is Diamond Mind's projected record for your 2005 St. Louis Cardinals: 103-59. Holy... Diamond Mind has the Cardinals winning the division 99 times out of 100, finishing 20 games ahead of the Cubs. For what it's worth, DM was one of the few, the proud, who picked the Cards to win the NL Central in 2004. Both PECOTA and DM expect 70-80 wins for the rest of the division. They also both project a tight NL West and Atlanta losing out to Philadelphia. I do wonder if the game-to-game nature of Diamond Mind's projections is picking something up about the Cardinals that Pythagoreans miss.

OK, I'm ready for the real thing. Four more wins!

Posted by Rob at March 29, 2005 08:31 PM
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if this is a 103-win team . . . . well it says more about how low the n.l. has sunk than anything else. 98 or 99 i can see, if it all breaks right --- ie if rolen's knee, albert's foot, morris's shoulder, mulder's hip, etc etc all behave themselves; and if age doesn't turn one of the outfielders into a drag on the offense; and if ray king can pitch another 80 games effectively . . . . .

put me down for 93-69.

and yeh, i do like those phils

Posted by: l boros at March 29, 2005 11:15 PM

Atlanta losing out to the Phillies? As much as I'm sick and tired of the Braves (damn Turner TV Empire, I can't switch a channel on my TV without flipping past a Braves game, it seems) that's what we were all saying this time last year, right?

I know the Braves have to fall sometime, but I still won't believe it til the last out of the regular season....

Posted by: Len Cleavelin at March 30, 2005 09:13 AM