Yeah, the sample sizes are meaningless, but it's time to start the shift from projections to actual. I can't do that Sagarin thing where early in the college basketball season he gives pre-season forecasts weight, so we'll have to make do.

Who's Hot?

Jason Marquis Let's see, 1.33 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 15/4 K/BB and only one flukish home run allowed in 20.1 innings. Today he mowed down the last 18 he faced and made Carlos Lee look as uncomfortable in the batter's box as Larry Walker facing Randy Johnson. I can't shake the feeling that Marquis is a nice, average pitcher experiencing some luck though. Today, for example, he only got a first-pitch strike against 14 of the 29 batters he faced; I'm not sure what exactly is good, but I'm pretty sure that's mediocre at best.

Jim Edmonds Edmonds is hitting 269/375/692, which isn't particularly impressive for him even if he is battling the flu. Originally this spot was to be occupied by Reggie Sanders, but he's got a .281 on-base percentage. Maybe David Eckstein's .419 OBP fits the bill, but the .324 SLG doesn't. Newsflash: Nobody's hitting really well.

Jason Isringhausen Nobody aside from Marquis is pitching that well either. But Isringhausen has converted all five save opportunities and has generally looked good out there. He's got seven appearances in ten games and that can't continue.

Who's Not?

Yadier Molina 1-for-29 with one walk. Tony Womack had a nasty slump like this around the All-Star Break, and Molina reminds me a little bit of Womack. They both have one real skill as hitters -- strikeout avoidance -- they don't draw walks, and they don't have power. They'll hit some line drives, but the outfielders should play them shallow enough to snag a few. The big difference of course is that Womack would reach base when he tapped a little bouncer to the left side, while as Ryan pointed out, Molina has almost no chance at infield singles. Obviously Molina's a better hitter than 034/067/034, but I'm starting to think we've got Mike Matheny II on our hands.

Mark Mulder Unless you've been stranded on a desert island you know about this one. My shoulder's worn out from beating another dead horse, so I'll take a different tack. Mulder's a groundball pitcher and the Conventional Wisdom says his shortstop tries to compensate for lack of physical talent through superior positioning. If Mulder's not hitting his spots, Eckstein doesn't have a chance. If Eckstein's due for a day off, then I'd give it to him on a day Mulder's starting.

Larry Walker Alan Schwarz had a column at the New York Times on the meaning of cold starts. There are various caveats that have to be considered, one of which is that old players generally do worse in April (and all other months) than their career numbers indicate. Another caveat is that players moving from a good-hitting environment to a poor one also decline. That's Larry Walker, although that doesn't fully explain his 206/289/324. I wasn't worried about Scott Rolen since he's seemed OK physically from the first day of spring training, but Walker has had various physical ailments and he's getting up there in years. While Walker will improve, the hopes of a 300/400/500-type season have dimmed.