True, the Cardinals only have 4 stolen bases, but I'm a fan of this team's not needlessly using up their precious 27 outs, saving the bunts and stolen bases for situations in which playing for ONE RUN is critical. To lose a runner (or an out) in, say, the fourth inning with the heart of the lineup due to bat is just plain stupid, considering their on-base skills and power potential.

This is a team that can stun opponents with the big inning--the consecutive extra-base hits, the 3-run homer---as well as manufacture runs, but the problem with "manufacturing runs" (a euphemism for bunting and running) is the price the strategy exacts by costing opportunities for the big inning. It's great when you're down by 1 late; but it's not so great when you're down by 3 late (as yesterday).

The Cardinals this year have the fewest caught stealing (1) and the fewest sac bunts (5) in the league, and compared to a team like Arizona (5 caught stealing, 15 sac bunts), the Birds have saved themselves a HALF-GAME's worth of outs. To be fair to AZ, 8 of their 15 sacs are by pitchers, but still, that's 7 sacs by non-pitchers, compared to two (both by Molina) for the Birds.

The end result for Arizona? While it has has a better OBP (.343, 5th best) than the Cardinals (.324, 12th best), and a better slugging percentage (.428, 6th, compared to .418. 9th), they score fewer runs per game, 4.55 to the Birds' 4.85.

Is that a bit of a stretch? Linking these numbers like this and showing direct causation?

I agree with your desires, saving our outs, in general. But, specifically, with Yadier "the Out" Molina at the plate, what is the best use of his appearance? Is it to try to drive a runner home from 2nd?

It's easier to hit a 2 run homer than a 3 run homer (or to score 2 runs any way -- in craps terms, "easy" -- than 3 runs easy). If you get one run out of that situation, you decrease the threshold of "Big Enough Inning" for your guns that are right around the lineup corner as well as you increase the liklihood it will happen, even though you give up the immediate out.

If you can generate 1 run out of the Catcher/Pitcher end of the lineup and in doing so, needing one less run from your front end, sweet, do it, even in the 7th.

In this particular case, I think I would've let Molina swing away. Sure he's about as likely to make an out as the pitcher is, but moving that runner over to 3rd for the pitcher isn't doing much good anyway, so why not give Molina a chance to get a decent base hit and drive in the runner?

Also, in a recent article on stltoday.com, Tony said he's trying to show confidence in Yadier. Asking him to bunt a runner over for the pitcher does *not* accomplish that goal.

Good points.

I didn't see the way it went down, so I'm guessing for some of this. Another question, why not pinch hit for the pitcher then? Is our bullpen now that weak without Izzy? And how many outs were there when molina got up?

Ryan, I know my post implied causation, but my larger point was about the type of ball I think the Cardinals should play, and Arizona became my example only because they had the largest number of CS+SAC, and I wanted to show how many more outs a team has already given up compared to the Cardinals. It was merely convenient in the context of this example that, despite having a higher OPS, Arizona is a lower-scoring team.

In the Molina case yesterday, I either have him swing away or else I pinch-hit. With a runner in scoring position already and down by three, you have to score three times before you get 9 outs (or 8 outs, if you bunt). Scoring-probablity tables show that a team's projected runs scored with runner on 2nd, 0 out is about 20-25% higher than with runner on 3rd, 1 out.

BUT if you want to score JUST ONE RUN---say, to tie a game, or to win---then the bunt in that situation is the right play, as it increases the odds of simply SCORING, if only ONE RUN. But, in our case, when we had to score multiple runs to tie, that bunt decreased our chances of doing just that.

These probabilities don't take the hitter into account (they assume an "average hitter"), and we all know that, right now, Molina falls something short of average. So probably, in that situation, a pinch-hitter would have been the best strategy...

But also, if Tony's thinking long-term, maybe the right move is to leave Molina in there to take his hacks, show the kid he has confidence in him, and even if he strikes out or pops up, and we go one to lose, in the long run it's OK because Tony's saying "you're my guy" and you may not have produced there, but neither did Albert twice with runners on, so it's not the end of the world.

salvo, your points are well taken, and the contrast you drew between Arizona's numbers are valid, especially when speaking in general. I wasn't trying to stick you on it, just raising the other side.

I guess as to the confidence point, you could argue that it's better to set a guy up to contribute (sac bunt) than to set him up to fail, and unfortunately, in my opinion, asking molina to be an rbi guy in a pivotal situation by swinging away with a runner on 2nd (not 3rd, where a pop up or weak grounder would be fine) sounds like a failure in progress. At least at this point in the season.

It's one of those things where the specifics of the situation may call for a contradiction to the general rule.

As Bill Murray might say, baby steps to producing runs from your rookie catcher. And phrasing it as 9 (or implicitly 8) outs left is scary, you're right, but really it means that the top of our lineup will have at least one chance to get it done, regardless of what Molina does. That cirlces me back to my point, if you can narrow the gap to 2 with your C/P or pinch hitter at the 8 and/or 9 spot, sounds fine to me.

I'm assuming by your answers there were 0 outs when Molina was up?

Yes, there was 0 out in the Molina at-bat.

I think you make a good case for having Molina bunt, especially since my pet tables show the odds of getting at least one run increase with a successful bunt (although chances for a multi-run inning lessen). Then, if we do score at least the one run (which we did), the thumpers have two innings in which to score two runs after Yadier has made his own small, yet significant offensive contribution.

One thing I have to remember about these scoring tables is that they average out all the situations; but in reality, having your 7-8-9 hitters batting is very different thanhaving your 1-2-3 guys up, and what makes the most sense for one group may not be the smart thing to do with the other.

I'll remember that the next time I have the urge to scream at my TV (even though I'll probably end up screaming at it anyway).

not yelling at the tv is not an option during baseball season!

Scream on!