Over/Under

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ESPN.com Insider (subscription required) has unveiled its All-Underrated and All-Overrated Teams for current major leaguers, and Rob Neyer has chipped in with his All-time All-Underrated/Overrated Teams.

Surprisingly/not surprisingly, these lists include some former and current Cardinals.

Apparently there isn't anyone currently on the Cards' roster that is underrated; after all it's not likely that someone playing in the 21st biggest market, whether they are on the best team in baseball or not, will be overlooked (may I nominate the Cards Bench?); but there are a couple on the overrated side.

All-Overrated (Current)

Larry Walker (!)
2005 Stats

G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
K
SB
CS
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
21
76
15
19
5
0
2
8
11
17
0
0
0.250
0.352
0.395
0.747

This from Gary Gillette:

Larry Walker was once a great player. Never quite as good as everyone thought, but pretty damn good, nonetheless. But Walker's golden-boy status was based on his being an all-around player who could field and throw with the best in the game. His bat speed has now declined – no surprise given that he's 38 – as well as his range. Plus, there's that nagging injury history that can't be ignored. How many times has Walker played 150 games in a season in his career? Once in 14 full seasons. When was the last time that Walker had 600 plate appearances in a season? 1997. To deserve a reputation like Walker's, a player needs to be in the lineup every day, year after year.

Huh. And I thought Mullethead's reputation was that he was a 5-time All-Star, 7-time Gold Glove winner, 3-time batting champion and one-time MVP.

Mike Matheny
2005 Stats

G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
K
SB
CS
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
22
79
9
19
7
0
3
13
7
17
0
0
0.241
0.307
0.443
0.750
Again, Gillette:
No-hit, good-field catchers are a baseball tradition dating back to the days when stealing bases actually mattered. The Giants' Mike Matheny continues that tradition in an era when catcher defense is not really important. Here is a guy who has averaged a pathetic .239 with five homers per year over his 10 full seasons; his career OBP is sub-.300; he doesn't have gap power, can't run even by catcher standards, and should be a career backup. His defense, no matter how good, comes nowhere close to making up for that laundry list of deficiencies – and his defense is overrated, too.

I would agree with Gillette, except Yadier Molina's .190 average and 3 errors aren't exactly making me forget Catch-22. Now, Gillette edited The 2005 ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia, which doesn't seem to have the same cachet as Baseball Prospectus, but it's a book with pages in it, so I'll cut him some slack.

All-Time Underrated

Ted Simmons
Lifetime Stats

G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
BA
OBP
SLG
2456
8680
1074
2472
483
47
248
1389
21
33
855
694
0.285
0.348
0.437
Quoth, Neyer:
Let me describe a nameless player: "decent defensive catcher, eight-time All-Star with 2,472 career hits, No. 1 among players who spent most of their careers behind the plate." Sound like a Hall of Famer to you? I haven't even mentioned nameless player's power; his 778 extra-base hits rank behind only Carlton Fisk among catchers. As I suspect you've suspected, this player does have a name, and it's Ted Simmons.

Simmons lost eligibility for election to the Hall of Fame in 1994 by not getting enough votes (17 to be exact) to stay on the ballot. He is eligible for the Hall via election by the Veterans Committee should one of the 25 candidates in 2005 drop off (Dick Allen, Bobby Bonds, Ken Boyer, Rocky Colavito, Wes Ferrell, Curt Flood, Joe Gordon, Gil Hodges, Elston Howard, Jim Kaat, Mickey Lolich, Sparky Lyle, Marty Marion, Roger Maris, Carl Mays, Minnie Minoso, Thurman Munson, Don Newcombe, Tony Oliva, Vada Pinson, Ron Santo, Luis Tiant, Joe Torre, Maury Wills, Smoky Joe Wood).

Reggie Smith
Lifetime Stats

G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
BA
OBP
SLG
1987
7033
1123
2020
363
57
314
1092
137
86
890
1030
0.287
0.366
0.489
For 11 seasons – 1968 through 1978 – Smith ranked as one of the game's best players, year in and year out. In 1982, his last season, Smith batted .284 with 18 homers in only 349 at-bats. He was 37, obviously had plenty of good baseball left in him, and finished his career with two seasons in Japan.

Smith had two good years with the Birds in 1974 and 1975 (batting .306, averaging 21 HR, 88 RBI, .894 OPS), before beingtraded in the middle of one crappy one in '76 to the Dodgers for Joe Ferguson, Bob Detherage, and Fred Tisdale.

Neyer's list also includes former Cardinals, Will Clark and Dan Quisenberry who both contributed their share of memorable moments, including a push to the playoffs in 2000 for Clark and the closing out of the Herzog years for Quiz.

All-Time Overrated

Bruce Sutter
Lifetime Stats

W L G GS CG SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA
68 71 661 0 0 300 1042.1 879 370 328 77 309 861 2.83

Neyer wrote a column back in January dissing Sutter's HOF eligibility (Bruce's vote total rose from 301 votes in 2004 to 344 in 2005) primarily based on Neyer's Kansas City inferiority complex - thereby Quisenberry's inclusion on the All-Time Underrated.

Does anybody want to reasonably argue that Dan Quisenberry's not anything like a Hall of Famer, but that Bruce Sutter is a Hall of Famer? I mean, I'm sure there's a case to be made for Sutter. It's just that I still haven't seen it.

If Sutter's vote total continues to rise as it has over the past 5 years, he is likely to be elected in 2006 when the list of first time players includes such luminaries as Alex Fernandez, Gregg Jefferies, Lance Johnson, and Mickey Morandini. Yes Orel Hershiser, Will Clark and Gary Gaetti are on next year's list, too, but doubtful they will take votes away from Sutter.

Sidebar

Back to my parenthetical about nominating the Cards' Bench for Most Underrated, I wasn't joking. Aside from what can best be described as a pathetic performance thus far by Róger Cedeño and John Mabry's slow start (although that homer Monday made me a lot forgiving), the Cards bench is performing much better than I expected.

Here's the bench batting stats through today:

G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
K
SB
CS
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
12
144
17
39
7
1
5
25
12
12
2
1
0.271
0.329
0.389
0.718

Here's the bench stats through today minus Cedeño:

G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
K
SB
CS
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
11
114
15
34
6
1
5
20
11
9
2
0
0.298
0.360
0.500
0.860

Not too shabby. Underrated, even.

Posted by Sean at May 5, 2005 04:42 PM
TrackBacks (Trackback URL: http://www.thebirdwatch.com/mt/bw-tb.pl/826)

"His defense, no matter how good, comes nowhere close to making up for that laundry list of deficiencies – and his defense is overrated, too."

While I'm not a Matheny fan, I have to wonder how much Gillette watched Matheny, because Matheny's defense was pretty darn good.

I have a hard time getting over my biases WRT So Taguchi, but he's been dealing in 2005. He's not going to end the season with a 1000 OPS, but a good defensive OF with a 750 OPS is pretty useful, especially since he and Edmonds swing from the opposite side of the plate.

Posted by: Rob at May 5, 2005 06:55 PM

Ray Lankford wouldn't be bad on that underrated list. And Jim Edmonds should definitely be on it, he's had a ridiculous peak and yet outside of his web gems on Baseball Tonight nobody cares.

Posted by: Dan at May 5, 2005 07:11 PM

A couple of times I posted to a Primer thread about catcher defense---specifically, just how good Matheny was at corralling pitches---and both times I was roundly pooh-poohed, as evertone said that ANY catcher on a ML roster can do that, and someone who happens to do it a little better than the rest---say, Matheny---will save his team maybe a base every week or two. And thus, there's no excuse for keeping a good-defensive-reputation cathcer on the roster if he can't hit.

I disagreed then, l and I disagree now. I watch a ton of baseball (MLB Extra Innings is the best $150 I spend every year) and I see so many balls get by catchers for passed balls and wild pitches (Einar Diaz had two get past him in his first start) that I believe Matheny, or a similar defensive catcher, would block.

I don't know that they're necessarily worth a starting spot, but a good-field no-hit catcher on a team with an otherwise stacked offense is a luxury the Birds can afford.

And I still think that Molina looks better at the plate than Matheny ever did. I'll bet he outhits Math by at least 20 points in 2005, after spotting him a month and a 80-point lead.

Posted by: salvo at May 5, 2005 08:00 PM

salvo, I second your points about defensive catchers in otherwise stacked lineups.

It's always tricky talking HOF status. I remember watching Sutter pitch when I was a kid. His stuff was so nasty and batters would just be clueless. Maybe I'm just nostalgic and still seeing it through kid eyes, but it seems to me taht for no brief moment in time, Bruce Sutter was a dominating force, his career stats be dammed (I don't even know what they mean, does anyone else have a good feel for career relief pitcher stat lines?).

Then take a guy like Raphael Palmeiro, a guy who has incredible career numbers and by most accounts seems a shoe in for Cooperstown (especially if Viagra builds a wing there), yet when was he ever a dominating force in baseball? Whether I picked a good example or not, where do people leave room for that type of competition level that may not show up in the stats?

PLus I have Larry Walker on a fantasy team, so I hope he perks up soon...

Posted by: Ryan at May 6, 2005 02:24 AM

The thing about Walker is that he can't really be considered overrated anymore now that he plays for the Cards. Since coming here, he's never been hyped at a level with Pujols, Edmonds or Rolen (not even Renteria in '04). He's a great player, one step down from Edmonds in the OF and a great number two hitter in the lineup, especially for a manager that likes a player who can hit homers in that spot.

Even before that, he was probably the best player on the Rockies, the Rockies.

Posted by: RyanVB at May 6, 2005 08:25 AM

My father told me about Sutter, how until it dropped, his 80 mph splitter looked like his 80 mph fastball. He said it was great to watch hitters just stand there and stare at the fastball, afraid to swing because they were sure it was the splitter, and the bottom was about to drop out of it at any second.

As for Palmiero vs. Sutter in the Hall of Fame, I like Bill Simmons' idea about the 5-level HOF. He said level 1 was for borderline guys, either those who were dominant for a short period of time (Sutter, for example), or the really good, rarely great for a long period of time (Palmiero). They had different career paths, but both probably merit inclusion.

Posted by: CalvinPitt at May 6, 2005 12:08 PM