Don't Panic

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"Don't Panic." These are the words inscribed on the outside of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, but they might as well be inscribed on Dave Duncan's Guide to the Cardinals Bullpen.

I think it's safe to say that the Cards' starters have been carrying the bulk of the load for the first 27 games; what with Mulder's 10-inning complete game shutout versus the Rocket and the 'Stros, Carp's CG shutout of the Cubs, and even the bearded one is looking pretty sharp; but after a couple of recent bullpen meltdowns, I was starting to flashback to 2003.

But, no need to panic.....Yet.

Take a look at this...

This is the Cards' starting rotation through 27 games in 2005:

G
GS
W
L
CG
SHO
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
ERA
WHIP
K/9
27
27
16
6
2
2
178.34
163
71
61
12
45
120
3.08
1.17
6.06

And, the woeful bullpen through 27 games in 2005:

W
L
SV
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
ERA
WHIP
K/9
2
2
12
62.66
67
35
33
6
35
60
4.74
1.63
8.62

How does this compare to last year's 105 game winning squad at the same point?

2004 Cards' starting rotation through 27 games:

G
GS
W
L
CG
SHO
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
ERA
WHIP
K/9
27
27
8
10
1
0
169.34
156
88
82
30
59
97
4.36
1.27
5.16

2004 bullpen through 27 games:

W
L
SV
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
ERA
WHIP
K/9
6
3
4
80.00
83
50
44
8
41
58
4.95
1.55
6.52

The main difference? The starters couldn't get the job done and the bullpen wasn't being called on to save games, they were being called on to win them. The 2004 bullpen came into the game more often, their ERA was higher, their K/9 were lower, and not too many save situations there.

Now how about 2003?

2003 Cards' starting rotation through 27 games:

G
GS
W
L
CG
SHO
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
ERA
WHIP
K/9
27
27
11
7
2
0
171.67
160
76
69
20
63
104
3.62
1.30
5.45

2003 bullpen through 27 games:

W
L
SV
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
ERA
WHIP
K/9
4
5
4
83.33
79
44
43
16
40
60
4.64
1.43
6.48

Remember these are the glory days of Simontacchi, Tomko and Stephenson... Yet, the bullpen ERA is lower than the 2005 bullpen.

Now a lot of the 2005 worries can be attributed three guys. One of them, Jason Isringhausen, who was pitching lights out before suffering a strained right abdominal muscle, is on the DL and should be back next week. Thankfully the other two, Jimmy-James Journell and Carmen Cali were banished to the minors yesterday and will be replaced by Bill Im-Pulsipher and Brad Thompson (he of the 57 2/3 scoreless innings streak).

Anytime we can get rid of this line, we are improving our bullpen through subtraction:

C Cali/J Journell

G
W
L
SV
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
ERA
WHIP
K/9
9
0
1
0
7.33
13
11
10
4
9
7
12.28
3.00
0.95

 
Posted by Sean at May 6, 2005 02:35 PM
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I hope that's actually K/Inn instead of K/9...

I probably helped sow the seeds for this article by commenting unfavorably on the bullpen last week (Ray King in particular), but I'm far from panicking.

Pulsipher didn't do so well in his debut, but he didn't give up a run all spring. That's gotta count for something. Remember when Eldred made his comeback after a great spring (actually I don't remember what he did in spring, but it had to be good in order to make the team, right? maybe not, it was '03 after all.) and promptly posted an ERA of 135 after two appearances? He posted a 3.09 ERA from there on, and became one of our most reliable relievers, although that's not saying much.

Speaking of Eldred, I hear he's up and about, and perhaps getting close to playing again. Also, Izzy should only be gone another week or so.

By the way, 0.37 of that bullpen ERA from the first 27 games of '03 came from those first two appearances by Cal.

Posted by: John at May 6, 2005 03:08 PM

Am I missing something... why were there so many more innings total in 2003?

Posted by: Jeff at May 6, 2005 06:48 PM

Pulsipher's spring record is something. However it's not a lot and as far as I can tell, that's it. Everybody's rooting for him, but that's in part because the odds are against him.

I had a long post planned on Journell/Cali, because they were guys who back in February looked like they could go either way. It's bad news that they're back in Memphis while the right-handed version of Jeff Fassero (Kevin Jarvis) is still on the roster. They earned the demotion, but I hate to see question marks turn into worst-case scenarios.

Thompson's call-up could be a bad sign. Isringhausen should be back soon and presumably Thompson gets sent back to Memphis. He wasn't on the 40-man roster before yesterday, so the Cardinals could end up burning one of Thompson's option years so they could get Journell away a week early... or Isringhausen isn't coming back that soon. So they either think Journell's as hopeless as the numbers indicate or they think Izzy's not as healthy as claimed.

Posted by: Rob at May 6, 2005 07:08 PM

Apologies, for some reason I miscalculated by about 40 innings when I did the 2003 bullpen numbers... I've changed that and the K/9 innings stats.

Posted by: Sean at May 6, 2005 09:11 PM

I'M PANICKING!!!!!
I'M PANICKING!!!!!
I'M PANICKING!!!!!
I'M PANICKING!!!!!
I'M PANICKING!!!!!
I'M PANICKING!!!!!
I'M PANICKING!!!!!
AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: TOLAXOR at May 7, 2005 04:02 PM