More on Eckstein
« Screwy Lefties | Main | Dodgers 9, Cardinals 8 »I had to put this up front so people would see it, because it's too interesting to keep burried in a comment. L Boros over at Curveblog noticed something interesting about David Eckstein:
david eckstein hits from behind in the count too much
Read the whole thing for context and conclusions.
Posted by Josh at May 10, 2005 11:25 AMI hate to be obtuse about this, but watching the games it's pretty obvious that Eckstein almost always makes the pitcher throw him a strike before he swings at anything. Then he swings. A lot. It is part of his Hrabosky-endorsed "seeing a lot of pitches as the leadoff man."
I think a more interesting point than that he hits well when someone throws him such a fat first-pitch strike he can't resist would be to see if the batters after him in a lineup benefit from him "showing" more of the pitcher's pitches. Don't know how I'd do that, though.
bill, i think what's interesting is that eckstein takes this approach to an extreme that very few (if any) other players do. lots of hitters around the majors are patient, and lots tend to lay off the first pitch and/or first strike; but eck'n seems to be in a class by himself in this regard.
Posted by: l boros at May 10, 2005 12:14 PMRUnning up the pitcher's pitch count is a valuable commodity in a leadoff man, one that's not really quantifible, as far as I can tell, with stats.
Seeing this you also might think that power pitchers, the Oswalt's etc., would be Eck's downfall. But, he's .281/.349/.361/.710 against what ESPN's stats people classify as power pitchers.
Posted by: ryan vb at May 10, 2005 12:42 PMquick n dirty check on the value of eck as leadoff guy: from 2002-04 angels scored 4.98 runs a game with him in the leadoff hole, 4.78 with other leadoff men. the "other leadoff" data set is small (only 78 games) so i have no idea if that represents a statistically meaningful number . . . if it is meaningful, it suggests that eck is worth about 30 extra runs over a full season. not shabby
Posted by: l boros at May 10, 2005 01:12 PMi think david eckstein is cool
Posted by: fitz at May 10, 2005 01:37 PMOne thing to remember about some of the numbers thrown around in that article: EVERY hitter has "above-average" stats when you add up their production on a "0-0 count"; the only way that you have "production" on a 0-0 count is if the ball is put into play; if the pitch is swung at and missed it doesn't count against your production (as opposed to "production" with a 2-strike count, in which swinging and missing negatively affects your numbers).
Posted by: salvo at May 10, 2005 05:55 PMfair point salvo, but i don't see how swings and misses (or foul balls) can explain the entire gap betw eckstein and the field. his pctage of at-bts that conclude on the 1st strike is just too much lower than ev'yone else's that i checked
eckstein 12 pct
womack 15 pct
cora 19 pct
pierre 24 pct
rollins 26 pct
renteria 29 pct
polanco 30 pct
i also accept your point about 0-0 counts. but my point is the converse: every hitter's stats are BELOW average once the pitcher's got a strike on you. yet because eckstein's hitting strategy is to take the 1st strike 95 pct of the time, he hits from behind in the count far more often than most players.
what i want to know is: 1) given this handicap, how does eck do as well as he does? and 2) does this approach help the team (eg, by running up pitch counts) or hurt the team (by lowering eckstein's ba/obp)? or is it a wash?
Posted by: l boros at May 10, 2005 06:28 PMAnyone in Seattle (including myself) that watches Ichiro hit on a regular basis will tell you that "he loves to hit with two strikes".
He always seems to be spoiling pitches, hitting deep into the count, waiting to slap one just over the shortstop's head.
So I ran the numbers on him, thinking that if anyone had Eck beat on the hitting behind in the count thing, it's gotta be Ichiro. Well, not only is that not true, but Ichiro doesn't actually hit with two strikes any more than anyone else analyzed so far.
ab on 1-0 / 2-0: 334 (16 pct)
ab on 0-1 / 0-2: 310 (15 pct)
ab on 1st strike: 643 (32 pct)
ab behind in count: 598 (29 pct)
Surprising, I think. Just for grits and shiggles, I also looked at his OPS in those situations. Nothing out of the ordinary compared to any other player; he hits poorly with two strikes.
I guess I won't say "he loves to hit with two strikes" anymore. ;)
Sorry I'm late to this discussion. Just thought it was worth noting that Eck's stats this year when batting way behind in the count are astounding (I don't think this has been mentioned yet... sorry if I'm repeating):
when count is 0-2, .563 BA
after an 0-2 count, .429 BA
Granted these are small sample sizes, but it does tell you something about his approach at the plate.
Posted by: Jon at May 15, 2005 06:32 PM