60 Games In -- Who's Hot and Who's Not

« Whole Lot of Championships | Main | 06/10/2005 »

On Pace For: 105-57
Magic Number: 97

During the last 20 games the Cubs, powered by a 7-game winning streak went 14-6... and didn't gain a darn thing against the Cardinals. Meanwhile the Brewers have faded to fourth place behind the Pirates. While more sophisticated accounting has the Cubs and the Cardinals in a virtual heat, making up seven games is a lot to ask of a club starting Mitre and Koronka.

On a different note, the Yankees -- whose record is a half-game behind the Pirates' record -- and the Red Sox don't look so good right now. The Braves are having their own troubles as well. The post-season in 2005 could look very different from 2004 and in my humble opinion that's a good thing. Now on with the show.

WHO'S HOT

Albert Pujols just keeps hitting, you don't need to know the numbers. The big development during the last three weeks is that the Cardinals drafted Albert's cousin. I can state with 99.9% certainty that Wil doesn't have the talent of Albert (although he was a higher draft pick), but the Cardinals probably have a better idea of the value of working with Albert than anyone else. This should be fun to watch.

Al Reyes has pitched 10.0 innings, allowing 0 R, 2 H and 2 BB against 9 K, moving his 2005 ERA down to 1.85. Alright, he also hit a couple of batters. If he gets fined and/or suspended, then he should employ the Danny Graves defense on appeal. As in "I'm a decent reliever who's had to bounce around the bus leagues to get a chance at a whopping $450 thousand salary in 2005. Danny Graves sucks and the Mets just signed him to a deal that guarantees him at least $500 thousand in 2006, and if pitches half as well as I'm pitching, he'll get freaking $5 million. You'd throw at batters too." Or maybe he should just use the Chewbacca Defense.

Yadier Molina hit 303/343/424 the previous twenty games. I guess that's hot.

WHO'S NOT

Sure, he hit over .300, but Einar Diaz has 9 at-bats the last twenty games. While the Cardinals have had a few off-days here and there, that's pushing young Yadier hard.

Mark Grudzielanek has slowed down, hitting 263/300/303 over the last twenty games. That's hardly earth-shattering and the defense is still sound, so I'm not complaining yet. If he plays a couple of good games this weekend, Grudzielanek could start in left field for the Yankees next year.

Mark Mulder has given up 15 ER in his last 22.2 IP. The 11/9/4 K/BB/HR over that span won't impress Voros McCracken. It's been a strange stretch for Mulder, as he gave up 4 runs in 5.2 innings against a terrible Royals offense -- your ace starter really isn't supposed to give up walks to Angel Berroa, Tony Graffanino and Emil Brown (twice) -- but he held the Rockies to two runs in 8 innings at Coors. For better and for worse the difference between Mulder and Dan Haren to this point has been negligible.

DOWN ON THE FARM

After lasting only one inning on June 3rd, the Cardinals apparently had top prospect Anthony Reyes skip a start. Uh-oh. On the brighter side, unless I'm missing somebody, Chris Gissell took over the lead in strikeouts for the Pacific Coast League tonight. Cal Eldred has pitched six scoreless innings at Springfield, which is darn good news. I really hope he's not rushing though.

Posted by Rob at June 11, 2005 02:41 AM
TrackBacks (Trackback URL: http://www.thebirdwatch.com/mt/bw-tb.pl/888)

An interesting breakdown. I do think the Flubs may make us sweat at some point, but that's about all. In fact, Prior and Wood coming back may end up hurting them more than helping. This winning streak they've been on has that "crap your pants and dive in" quality that may be killed when they have to go back to babying their ailing stars. I agree that the workload on Yadi is a bit over the top, but damn, that kid is a gunslinger. Still, I'd hate to see them just flat out wear him down. And I know what you mean about Mulder. When he's got his stuff he's awesome, but we're all starting to get that "Good Matty Mo/Bad Matty Mo" feeling about him. Thank Zeus Matty Mo is solid. We'll see which Mulder takes the hill today...Mr. Ace Groundball or Dr. Hang It In The Zone.

Posted by: rockin redbird at June 11, 2005 10:26 AM

Thanks for the analysis. It's always good to take stock around this time of year. Very good (and somewhat scary) point about Molina... let's give the kid a break.

I wouldn't take the BP numbers too seriously. EqA and EqR always seemed like kind of crude measures to me. And they don't take fielding into account, at least not directly.

Posted by: Jh at June 11, 2005 01:08 PM

Yeah, the standings are not the end of the discussion. Even then, I'm not falling into the trap of the gambler's fallacy. If the Cards and Cubs are pretty even, then the odds are very much in the Cards' favor.

Looks like Bad Mark Mulder showed up today.

Posted by: Rob at June 11, 2005 04:40 PM