Thoughts on the Weekend

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The games over the weekend and the series against the Red Sox have engendered a great many impressions within my head. Unfortunately they don't have any universal theme to tie them together except that they were prompted by the games over the last week. So here's a list:

Huzzahs all around for Scott Seabol. Salvo stole my thunder. Minor league veterans don't make a lot of money and they don't show up on SportsCenter. Dreams of a day like Scott Seabol had today is why they tolerate the bus rides and Myron Noodleman.

There's a game on Monday though.

The Yankees and Red Sox look like mediocre ball clubs. In his 2005 Handbook, Bill James discussed the phenomenon that the Red Sox always seem to underperform compared to their more granular stats. That was even the case during last year's dream season, as they "should" have won 106 instead of 98 games during the regular season. Maybe that wouldn't be the case if they didn't field a softball team. Same goes for the Yankees in 2005. I'm sure both teams looked great when they did more sophisticated versions of this, but they're prime examples of how little things like defense, baserunning and general decision-making can drag a team down.

The Yankees' and Red Sox' problems can be captured in two similar little plays over the weekend: (1) With two outs and runners on first and second, David Ortiz struck out against our favorite nutcase, but the ball rolled to the backstop. Ortiz never even left the batter's box, so the inning ended with an uncontested 2-3 rather than Manny Ramirez coming up with the bases loaded. (2) Tony Womack struck out today, and when the ball trickled away just a bit from Yadier, Womack strolled back to the dugout without even the slightest move towards first. Yes, it's hot and humid, it's June in Busch and Womack has maybe a 1% chance of reaching base. However that's not the Tony Womack I came to know and tolerate in 2004, the man who seemingly ran out every little ground ball like he was on a mission from God. Both the Yankees and Red Sox looked too cool out there and they can't get away with it without overwhelming talent, which they don't have. I'll go so far as to claim Jeter isn't immune, since that silly jump throw is more about style points than effectiveness. This leads to...

I almost liked seeing the Cubs win their series against the Sox. Much as I'd enjoy the Cardinals burying the rest of the division, it wasn't that long ago they called it the Comedy Central. In the unlikely even they're paying attention back east, a strong message has been sent that the important rivalry is in the NL Central this year.

Jeff Luhnow's last name rhymes with Bruno. That's what I learned during the umpire-replacement delay today. Luhnow was so relentlessly positive that I suspect he came from "Up With People" rather than McKinsey & Co.

The Mulder trade looks bad, but the strategy behind it looks good. First some comparisons:

Pitcher    IP    ERA    R  K/9  BB/9  HR/9 OPS-A
Mulder    83.2  4.30   43  5.4  2.7   0.75  739
Haren     80.0  4.28   47  6.6  3.3   0.90  701
WW 2004   83.2  4.18   41  6.2  2.8   0.95  742

That last row is Woody Williams's 2004 line pro-rated over Mulder's 2005 innings pitched. Mulder's replicating Woody's 2004 performance and really so is Danny Haren. Mulder evidently is healthy as we aren't seeing the September 2004 version of Mulder. That silver lining doesn't justify the loss of Daric Barton obviously.

Today's game however had me thinking of the differences between the old prudent man rule and the new prudent man rule. In the olden days fund managers weren't allowed to invest in certain assets even if they enhanced the portfolio. For example derivatives were sometimes prohibited because they were deemed too risky, even though in combination with the assets in the existing portfolio some derivatives may have reduced overall risk. We like to think we're more enlightened today.

Here's the bridge: The objectives of the "fund" Walt Jocketty manages changed from a year ago. Last year he needed innings eaters to avoid a 2003-style meltdown, while this year he needed a topflight starter, somebody who can matchup against Pedro or Santana in the post-season. So WJ re-signed Morris, who was a great starter not that long ago, and he exercised the option on, and talked extension with, Chris Carpenter, who was fabulous last year. Jocketty also held onto Anthony Reyes, the one pitcher on the farm who could go Josh Beckett on the Yankees or Nationals, even though Reyes comes with a big injury risk and the Cardinals could've use him in a trade to fill middle infield holes. There was a chance that none of these guys would be quite that good however, so he added a 4th pitcher in Mulder with upside (and risk).

Although the Mulder trade itself is not a happy story, the rotation as a whole is very promising. One of these guys is looking like an ace or maybe an ace-lite, another is looking very solid assuming he can get catch up to his sabermetric stats, one is down on the farm pitching well when he does pitch, and the last is a groundball analogue to Woody Williams in 2004. If you want to feel good about the trade, then flip Mulder and Morris or Mulder and Carpenter. The order of the names doesn't change the evaluation of the overall strategy. All that said...

La Russa may be getting protective of Mulder. Mulder's recent problems started about the time Rolen went to the DL and while you can't blame the two Emil Brown walks and the Robinson Cano walk (after getting ahead 0-2) on the 3B, for a groundball pitcher it's something to think about. I assume that's why Abraham Nunez started on Saturday rather than Scott Seabol, even though for his career Nunez has hit 218/301/268 as a right-handed batter. While I'm keenly aware of the value of defense, against Randy Johnson that's punting on second down. That lineup looked awkward and Nunez's error just made the decision look even stranger.

The Cardinals have a roster imbalance. While Cal Eldred didn't pitch, he was back on the roster today. I don't want to preach about perspective, so let's just say that's great news.

That meant someone had to go, and the Cardinals think highly enough of Brad Thompson that they're ending the Gabe White Era after only 8+ innings; compare that to the bouncing around Mike Crudale took while Luther Hackman remained on the roster in 2002. White's lack of work was the result of reliable starting pitching as the Cardinals currently are 27th in baseball in bullpen innings with a 400 inning pace for the season. The Cardinals are struggling to find uses for seven relievers, while John Mabry's start yesterday against the Unit drove home the value of an extra bat. It would be beyond classless to drop Eldred and I'd hate to see Thompson or Flores shipped back to Memphis, but I'm not looking forward to So Taguchi starting against Ted Lilly either.

Jason Giambi is a bloated David Eckstein at the plate. How can anyone hit 234/383/340? I'll bet the scouting report catches up with him in a month.

Posted by Rob at June 12, 2005 11:14 PM
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I thought you could only attempt to advance to 1st on a wild-pitch strikeout if 1st was unoccupied....

Nice series of observations. I've had the same feeling as you about Mulder: since his fourth start of the year---you know, the 10-inning shutout, which came on the heels of his 8-inning, 2-hit, no-earned-run outing---he's carrying a bloated 4.94 era in 54.2 ip (with 80 baserunners, nearly a 1.5 WHIP). He looked so good in those two earlier starts, but he really seems to be struggling now almost every time out. He has the fewest non-crappy starts on the team (I don't say "quality start" because 3 runs in 6 innings isn't "quality"; it's just "non-crappy"), and he seems to be a fine middle- to back-of-the-rotation guy, but please, this guy is not an Ace.

Posted by: salvo at June 13, 2005 06:21 AM

The "advance on dropped third strike" rule has two parts: (1) *With less than two outs and first base unoccupied*, the batter must be tagged out or thrown out at first; (2) *With two outs*, the same applies, even if first base is occupied.

TSF

Posted by: TedSimmonsFan at June 13, 2005 12:53 PM

Well I'll be a monkey's uncle. I always thought you could run only with first base open. Thanks for the clarification.

Posted by: salvo at June 13, 2005 01:50 PM

Don't remember the game in Philly last year where Izzy threw a WP with the bases loaded, and Matheny gunned down the runner at first to end the game?

Posted by: MO Boiler at June 13, 2005 08:29 PM

I'd like to add dittos to points 2 and 3, since they both are helping the O's stay in front even though they've played pretty crappy lately.

Posted by: MO Boiler at June 13, 2005 08:31 PM