Getting cocky

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It's only mid-June, yes. And a lot can happen in the long summer months ahead. But, right now, is there any team in the National League who can challenge the Cardinals? Let's take a look.

Obviously, the Cardinals have the best record in the NL through yesterday evening (6/17). They also have far and away the best run differential in not only the NL, but all of MLB. That's thanks to their leading the NL in both runs scored and runs allowed.

Here's the records matched with Pythagorean records and run differentials (indicators of future performance) for the National League:

Team            W-L   Pct  RS  RA  +/-   Pyth  
St. Louis      42-24 .636 339 266 (+73) 41-25
Washington     39-28 .582 269 277 ( -8) 33-34
Philadelphia   38-30 .559 329 317 (+12) 35-33
San Diego      36-31 .537 302 296 ( +6) 34-33
Atlanta        35-32 .522 306 270 (+36) 38-29
Chicago        34-31 .523 309 284 (+25) 35-30
Arizona        35-33 .515 321 373 (-52) 29-39
Florida        33-31 .516 290 267 (+23) 35-29
Los Angeles    33-33 .500 308 322 (-14) 32-34
New York       33-34 .493 289 282 ( +7) 34-33
Pittsburgh     30-35 .462 277 284 ( -7) 32-33
Milwaukee      29-37 .439 278 275 ( +3) 33-33
San Francisco  28-37 .431 291 346 (-55) 27-38
Houston        27-38 .415 239 278 (-39) 28-37
Cincinnati     26-41 .388 330 391 (-61) 28-39
Colorado       22-43 .338 297 379 (-82) 25-40

Clearly, the cream has risen to the top. But the biggest thing that this table proves is that the Cards' massive lead over the next-best run differential teams in the league. They're 7½ games ahead of the Cubs and Braves, and 8 ahead of the Marlins -- none of whom have a Pythagorean record within 3½ games of the Cards anyway!

Much has been made of the Cards' lineup, but the pitchering staff has carried the team thus far. The staff leads the NL with a 3.61 ERA by a healthy margin over the Marlins, and has the league lead in WHIP, as well. Both are despite being far behind the gaudy strikeout numbers posted by the Cubs -- they rank 9th in the league in K/9. The bullpen has been stingy, converting 27 of 31 save opportunities, and allowing an ERA of 3.37, which is a full run less than the NL median. The reason for all this success? Once again, as in 2004, the Cards have by far the best ground/fly ratio in the league. I repeat: by far. And if that keeps up...

Even if the hitters continue to struggle, there's no reason to believe that their success won't continue through the rest of the season into October. And with nobody else in the NL appearing to mount a serious challenge, let's hope the Cards can cruise to the pennant this year, allowing them to focus more on winning those final four games.

Posted by MO Boiler at June 18, 2005 05:05 PM
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I think it's interesting that the Cubs with Prior and Wood are probably the second-best team in the league this year. And it looks like four of the five best teams in baseball are in the central divisions!

Posted by: Rob at June 18, 2005 11:00 PM

Go figure. Especially with the Indians coming on real strong all of a sudden.

Posted by: MO Boiler at June 20, 2005 04:59 PM