On Pace For: 102-60
Magic Number: 72

This doesn't feel like a 102-win team, does it? Nor does it feel like a 10.5 game lead. Yet here we stand. This being the halfway mark, I though I'd try something a little different.

One of my responsibilities at work is financial projections. The head honchos want to have some idea what they can expect over the next year and beyond. Then much fun happens when reality doesn't match those projections. Back in January, using Dan Szymborski's ZiPS as an engine, I attempted a Cardinals projection (hitting here and pitching here). Let's see who's exceeded expectations and who will get called to the CFO's office. First the hitters:

Name           pOPS   OPS    pXR     XR     Var
Alomar#         651   000    4.1    0.0    -4.1
Cedeno#         685   372   11.7    0.4   -11.3
Diaz            571   515    7.8    2.9    -5.0
Eckstein        661   742   30.9   42.5    11.6
Edmonds*        990   948   53.6   47.3    -6.3
Gall            781   000    2.9    0.0    -2.9
Grudzielanek    717   732   24.2   37.3    13.1
Hart            697   000    5.8    0.0    -5.8
Luna            699   516   12.2    1.3   -10.9
Mabry*          812   696   19.6   15.9    -3.7
Mahoney         661   000    2.1    0.0    -2.1
McKay*          617   000    1.8    0.0    -1.8
Molina          673   669   22.6   25.0     2.4
Nunez#          655   766    2.1   23.8    21.7
Pujols         1094  1031   75.7   74.0    -1.7
Rolen           931   792   55.9   22.8   -33.1
Sanders         757   905   31.6   45.6    14.0
Schumaker*      663   000    2.2   -0.5    -2.7
Seabol          766   696    2.8    7.0     4.2
Taguchi         635   722    7.0   19.9    12.9
Walker*         793   844   32.0   36.2     4.2
Pitchers        429   460    5.0    6.5     1.5
TOTAL           783   776  413.6  407.8    -5.8

The Cardinals scored 420 runs in the real world, 6 six runs better than projected, but their run components say they should've scored six run less. In other words the projection was pretty good in aggregate, although the Cardinals had a "nonrecurring gain" of 12 runs, if you believe the model. Until a couple of weeks ago I might have thought their baserunning was worth something extra, but there have been a couple of baserunning blunders that changed my opinion.

At the individual level there are two sources of variance, playing time and playing quality. Grudzielanek, for example, is hitting close to his projection rate-wise, but he's got almost 50% more at-bats than my projection assumed (290 versus 200 in the first half). Seabol actually has been a little bit worse rate-wise, but has had about 3X playing time. In raw numbers the biggest winner here is Nunez, but enough of his gain is inflated by a playing time difference that I'll give my first half Overachievers Award to Sanders. Rolen gets the Underachiever Award. You know, we really could get on Rolen about him being selfish when he didn't go on a rehab assignment.

The pitchers get a little more complicated. Carpenter, for example, has thrown his hat into the Cy Young race, but he's actually given up more runs than I projected (39 versus 37) and the reason, of course, is that he's thrown 50% more innings than I assumed. So I got cute and made use of the "replacement level" device. I'll set 6 runs (total runs, not just earned runs) per 9 innings as replacement level. That's a little high, but since I'm looking at variances, that should be fine for my purposes. Here's how my projected versus actual "values over replacement pitchers" line up:

NAME             pERA    ERA   pVORP   VORP    Var
Ankiel           5.59   sigh    -0.3    0.0    0.3
Borland          4.00            1.3    0.0   -1.3
Cali             4.89  10.50     0.3   -4.0   -4.3
Carpenter        3.81   2.60    16.3   41.9   25.6
Eldred           4.57   1.00     3.0    5.0    2.0
Flores           4.75   3.60     0.3    1.7    1.3
Isringhausen     3.00   2.05     9.0   11.6    2.6
Jarvis                 13.50     0.0   -2.8   -2.8
Journell               10.38     0.0   -3.1   -3.1
King             3.66   2.22     7.0   10.2    3.2
Lincoln          4.08            5.0    0.0   -5.0
Marquis          4.28   4.11    12.7   12.7    0.0
Morris           4.13   3.31    11.7   19.8    8.1
Mulder           3.63   4.54    22.7   13.3   -9.3
Myers            4.39            2.3    0.0   -2.3
Pulsipher               6.75     0.0   -0.3   -0.3
Reyes,Al         4.09   1.89     5.0   15.2   10.2
Reyes,An         4.11            6.0    0.0   -6.0
Rust             4.64            0.3    0.0   -0.3
Suppan           4.52   4.34    11.3    6.6   -4.8
Tavarez          3.25   2.43     9.3   12.7    3.3
Thompson         4.44   1.99     0.3    9.1    8.8
White                   2.16     0.0    3.6    3.6
Wainwright       4.70            0.3    0.0   -0.3
TOTAL            4.09   3.54   124.0  153.0   29.0

The model predicted 361 runs allowed, compared to 327 actual. There were also 7.5 fewer innings pitched, so I compute +29 rather than +34 VORP. I found my VORP to be a decent proxy for a more respected VORP, if something from the Swedish Chef's vocabulary can be respected. Obviously the big winner here is Carpenter (duh), but aside from Carpenter the pitching has matched expectations. In particular, the 3M starters Mulder, Morris and Marquis net to zero. Al Reyes, the guy who couldn't find a major league job last summer, has a higher VORP than Mark Mulder. Stupid Spartan.

One little thing I noticed from this exercise is that the Cardinals have given up a lot of unearned runs, 44 to be precise. That's the 5th-most in baseball, and they have the highest UER/R ratio in all of baseball. I'll leave any allocation to the reader.

*****

On a completely unrelated note, congratulations are in order for Edmonds, Rolen, Eckstein, Pujols, Carpenter and Isringhausen. There are definitely problems with the selection process -- Beltran is more smooth than great and at least Andruw Jones hasn't popped into a GIDP recently -- but it's still a great honor.

Happy Independence Day. And, hey, let's be careful out there.