Break in the Action
« Rolen Out Of The ASG | Main | 07/12/2005 »I've been trying to decide whether the Cardinals really need another outfielder -- I mean, Jim Edmonds, Reggie Sanders and Larry Walker have EqA's of .311, .300 and .295 -- and whether John Rodriguez's 15-homer month means he could fill that hypothetical need. However I couldn't come up with a satisfactory answer, so I started asking silly questions Retrosheet can answer.
For example, do you know who led the Cardinals in called strikes last year? This one surprised me:
BATTER CALLED STRIKES Tony Womack 540 Albert Pujols 397 Edgar Renteria 387 Jim Edmonds 383 Scott Rolen 372
Can that be right? How about swinging strikes?
BATTER SWINGING STRIKES Jim Edmonds 323 Reggie Sanders 276 Scott Rolen 186 Mike Matheny 169 Edgar Renteria 146 John Mabry 145
That one I can believe. Pujols comes in at 134. Here's balls taken, excluding intentional balls and pitchouts:
BATTER BALLS Jim Edmonds 1052 Albert Pujols 987 Scott Rolen 958 Edgar Renteria 829 Tony Womack 826
And finally foul balls, excluding foul bunts:
BATTER FOUL BALLS Scott Rolen 441 Jim Edmonds 424 Albert Pujols 384 Tony Womack 370 Edgar Renteria 362
Retrosheet has an additional 25 foul bunts for Womack. The Cardinals had two eight-foul at-bats in 2004, one from Womack and the other from Cody McKay.
Another "can that be right?" is that Retrosheet only shows 13 pickoff attempts by Cardinal catchers all season long in 2004. Only two were successful as far as I can tell, one on 6/30 and the other on 9/30.
Three more days until Cardinals pitchers and catchers report.
Posted by Rob at July 12, 2005 04:41 AMI'M HAVING SERIOUS DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT STL WILL TRADE FOR A WALKER REPLACEMENT....
IT'S A SELLERS MARKET, AND WALKER WOULD HAVE TO HAVE AN ABYSMAL JULY FOR THEM TO MOVE, I'M THINKING...
FURTHER MORE - I'M BETTING LARUSSA WOULD USE HIS "SLOPPY WORK HABITS" VETO ON AUSTIN KEARNS....
HOPEFULLY JEFF AND MGL WILL PREVENT US FROM "REWARDING" REGGIE SANDERS WITH A BIG CONTRACT NEXT SEASON IF HE KEEPS UP HIS OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION THIS YEAR....
BTW- IF YOU HAVEN'T SEEN IT, OVER ON PRIMER, MGL DID A PROJECTION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR FOR EACH PLAYER, AND THEN RAN 1000 SEASON SIMULATIONS - THE RESULT OF WHICH WAS STL REACHING THE PLAYOFFS 1000 TIMES, LOL!!!!
Posted by: TOLAXOR at July 12, 2005 06:21 AMYes, it looks like we can expect significant dropoff from the corners in 2006. That's all the more reason to hope Mulder gets his act together.
Posted by: Rob at July 12, 2005 12:47 PMCool lists. If you add those numbers up, is that basically the number of pitches seen by each player, minus the pitch that gets put in play?
So does that mean that Jim Edmonds is contributing the most to Opposing Pitcher Fatigue? Looks like it's not even close.
And yeah, unless the cards are working on a deal to fill their longer term needs in OF, I don't see the need for a second half stop-gap.
Ahhhh, the power of simulations....
Posted by: Ryan at July 12, 2005 02:47 PMTOLAXOR, how about a link to the article about the 1,000 for 1,000 simulation? I tried to find it but was unsuccessful.
TSF
Posted by: TedSimmonsFan at July 12, 2005 03:40 PMIt's nice to see T-Dub get his props. His 2004 season was nothing short of remarkable.
I don't think we need another outfielder at this moment, barring a more serious injury -- Mabry and Taguchi are fine on the bench. La Russa knows how to rest his guys, and you know that Walker, Edmonds, and Sanders will be prepared come October.
The key question is whether it will be less costly overall to the organization if we acquire an outfielder to start next year before this year's trading deadline, or wait until the offseason. I'm always in favor of spending a little extra money rather than trading away solid prospects. Lord knows we'll be able to afford it with the new ballpark. Anyone know what the OF free agent crop looks like? I know Carlos Lee may be out there (if the Brewers don't re-sign him before season's end), but other than him, I'm drawing a blank.
Posted by: MO Boiler at July 12, 2005 04:54 PMWow, if we pick up Carlos Lee for next year, we'll be so good that I could play OF for the Cards at league minimum and we'd still take the pennant. Of course, I would donate my salary to TBW for site maintenance and an annual pig roast.
As a Cardinal, the only contribution I can promise is to top the lists of Called Strikes and Swinging Strikes.
Posted by: Ryan at July 12, 2005 05:44 PM"If you add those numbers up, is that basically the number of pitches seen by each player, minus the pitch that gets put in play?"
I checked against ESPN's stats for Edmonds, and including balls in play, it's close but I'm missing ~50 pitches. Evidently that's HBPs, bunt fouls, intentional balls and the like.
Posted by: Rob at July 12, 2005 07:50 PM