Joe Sheehan over at Baseball Prospectus has an article today (still free, as of today, anyway) about teams coming back to earth and playing to their ultimate skill level, using the Washington Nationals as a case in point.

The Nationals used a ridiculous record in 1-run games to leap out to a big lead early in the NL East, but the tables turned and they've since gone something like 0-9 (I haven't paid close enough attention) in their last nine 1-run games and now find themselves in freefall within their division.

Sheehan suggests that it's more instructive to look at a team's record in all games EXCEPT 1-one games to get a gauge of their "true" talent level...

So, how do the Birds look when viewed through the multi-run-difference ledger?

St. Louis       50-18 .735
Chicago (A)     46-25 .648
Cleveland       39-26 .600
Atlanta         43-30 .589
Los Angeles (A) 40-28 .588
Toronto         47-35 .573
Oakland         44-34 .564
Boston          46-36 .561
Florida         42-33 .560
Houston         42-35 .545
New York (A)    44-38 .537
New York (N)    42-37 .532
Philadelphia    42-37 .532
Minnesota       34-30 .531
Washington      32-31 .508
Texas           35-35 .507
Baltimore       43-42 .506
Detroit         38-38 .500

Not bad, huh?

And it's easy to figure out why 11 of 14 AL teams are at .500 or better in these games, compared to only 7 of 16 NL clubs: it's because the Cardinals are kicking all the NL teams' asses.