It's Always Something
« So Good | Main | Welcome Back, Mike »I'd rather continue saying nice things about So Taguchi or shout "Hallelujah" at the return of Yadier Molina. Instead, though, I find myself pondering this:
The mood of a Schopenhauer or a Nietzsche... though often an ennobling sadness, is almost as often only peevishness running away with the bit between its teeth. The sallies of the two German authors remind one, half the time, of the sick shriekings of two dying rats.
William James
No, not that William James, this one. While to the best of my knowledge Nietzsche and Schopenhauer never wrote about baseball, the shoe fits for people who whine about managers. Jason Marquis's recent wild ride has me worked up, so I'll have to try pretty hard to avoid rat sounds.
Let's look at some numbers, going back to SD-132:
Date Opp RA IP 7/27 SDG 1 8.0 8/1 FLA 2 5.0 8/6 ATL 2 5.0 8/12 CHC 2 6.0 8/18 ARI 3 7.0 TOTAL 10 31.0
This mythical pitcher is giving you 6 innings per start and giving up two runs. I'll add that he's been helping himself with the bat. Of course this mythical pitcher is Jason Marquis if you lop off the last inning of his recent outings. Unless it's Chris Carpenter's turn, you'll take that from your starting pitcher. Here's what we've got instead:
Date Opp RA IP 7/27 SDG 2 8.1 8/1 FLA 6 6.0 8/6 ATL 6 5.0+ 8/12 CHC 3 7.0 8/18 ARI 6 7.2 TOTAL 23 34.0
That's a 6.09 ERA, as all the runs were earned. One other thing you need to know is that except for the Florida game the Cardinals either trailed or were tied going into Jason's last inning. There are sample size caveats yadda yadda yadda, but it seems one of three things must be true:
(1) LaRussa doesn't know when Marquis is gassed.
(2) LaRussa's on a cold streak with his handling with Marquis.
(3) LaRussa's desperate to get Marquis a shot at a win.
I'm thinking it's the third choice. I'm not a pitch count zealot, Marquis isn't that young any more and he has a nice track record for health. He also got screwed by Joe West tonight (maybe, although my view was obstructed by Tom Pagnozzi and his kid). So I'm not hitting the panic button, screaming about LaRussa ruining poor Marquis. No, it's the desperate part that bothers me. If the "W" is that important to Marquis, then somebody on this veteran-laden team needs to go to him and say "Sorry about the lack of run support, but that's no excuse for putting yourself in front of the team. You're good for 100 pitches, six or seven innings, three trips through the lineup. The bullpen can take over from there." As with Scott Rolen's ill-fated return, this is where Mike Matheny might be missed.
Posted by Rob at August 19, 2005 12:20 AMCheck out the bit I did at Viva El Birdos on Suppan earlier in the year - it's the exact same thing. Suppan in his last +-inning of work had an astronomical ERA, but if you lopped it off, he had a 3.0-ish ERA. A MUCH better pitcher. With a bullpen as good as the Cards have, this shouldn't be happening with the starters. I just wish I could figure out a statistical means of saying when a pitcher is done, and should be pulled. Is it when he loses velocity? (Marquis doesn't really have a huge dropoff at the end of his outings). Does he lose movement? etc.
Posted by: Vincent at August 19, 2005 08:41 AMCheck the declining K rate:
Marquis's last 12 starts (in which he's 1-9) he's had strikeout totals above two just three times, and has had games of 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, and 2 strikeouts. Last year his K rate was a healthy 6.2 per 9, and he carried almost exactly a 2-to-1 K to BB ratio.
In 2005 his K rate is barely above 4 per 9, and his K/BB ratio is a sickly 1.2-to-1. With all the baserunners he puts on and with the lack of strikeouts, as well as his mysterious drop in GB/FB ratio (more than two grounders per fly in 2004, just 1.5-to-1 in 2005), it's no wonder he's in a funk.
Whatever happened to his hard sinker? Through his first 5 starts in April Marquis was 3-1 with a 1.80 gb/fb and 6.8 K/9; since then he's got a 1.53 gb/fb and just 3.4 K/9...
lack of ability...or head case? I think it's the latter.
Posted by: salvo at August 19, 2005 09:54 AMNice post. One additional factor, I think is Marquis's astounding hitting. If I'm not mistaken, during this stretch, there have been a couple of occasions where LaRussa let Marquis hit for himself in a late-inning situation that would have called for a pinch-hitter if, say, Mark Mulder, had been due up. Then, for the reasons Rob so eloquently described, LaRussa then sent a gassed Marquis back to the mound to get shelled.
Three comments:
1. If it is reason #3, it's another sad reflection on how stats dictate managerial decisions (see also Saves), and a sign that TLR's not as good a manager as many believe. Again, if.
2. How different is Marquis (or earlier, Suppan) from any other SP in this regard (less effective after x inning)? The 6-7th innings typically coincide with the lineup's third time around, which indicates that Marquis is just good enough to fool batters twice, but that they're onto him in their third PA. Rather than an inning cutoff, perhaps a batter plate-appearance cap is needed.
3. Greg, I think that's happened, but TLR's also left Marquis in to bat, then replaced him in the next half a couple times (to my memory, anyway).
Posted by: pip72 at August 19, 2005 01:44 PMVincent, that's a nice point on Suppan. I suppose possibility #4 is that TLR's protecting his pen. I'm not sure one game's stats have much prospective value, but I'm also not sure TLR goes on much more than stats, sometimes for the worse. I do like pip's idea about batters faced in point #2. Dr. Mike Marshall and Craig Wright have said something similar, I think.
Salvo, I don't know the source of Marquis's problems, but what bothers me right now is that LaRussa seems to have only one idea for solving them. It doesn't seem to be working either.
Posted by: Rob at August 19, 2005 06:45 PM