Just Bad Matt
« Not With A Bang | Main | Durable Goods »
As the Cardinals plan their postseason pitching rotation, three of the four pieces seem to be in place, as Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder and Jeff Suppan have all pitched very well in the second half and seem capable of providing the two things you need from your postseason starters: innings and effectiveness.
It’s that last spot that is causing consternation among Cardinal followers: Morris or Marquis?
Inspired by yesterday’s outing, and trying to remember the last time Matt Morris gave his team seven good innings (it was a little more than three weeks---or five starts---ago, against the Pirates on Aug. 25), I was perusing his game logs and found that despite his 10-1 record through July 4, he’s only had one stretch all year, covering eight starts in June and July, in which he’s consistently combined innings and effectiveness.
Without that stretch, Morris has actually been less effective in 2005 than the sore-armed slinger of 2004 who needed shoulder surgery immediately after the season:
Year GS IP H R ER K BB HR HR/9 K/9 RA/9 ERA WHIP H/9 BB/9
2004 32 202 205 116 106 131 56 35 1.56 5.84 5.17 4.72 1.29 9.13 2.50
6/6-7/18 2005 8 53 49 17 14 31 7 2 0.33 5.26 2.89 2.37 1.06 8.32 1.19
Rest of 2005 20 124.2 146 76 67 76 31 16 1.16 5.49 5.49 4.83 1.37 10.54 1.80
Now I don’t want to be accused of “cherry-picking” here; any season can be examined by removing hot or cold chunks to make it appear drastically better or worse than it actually was (e.g. “...if you take away his four worst games, he actually has a 3.53 era!”).
But in examining the numbers above, we’re talking about approximately 50 total weeks of pitching in 2004 and 2005, and isolating one 8-start stretch that seems completely at odds with the totals accrued in the other 52 starts. For a magical stretch this summer Morris’s unusually low walk and hit rates combined with a ridiculously low home-run rate to produce an ERA that was just half of what he’s put up during the rest of the past two seasons. Put this 8-start period in context, however, and it’s clear that Morris has pretty much sucked for two years.
And going into October, it would seem like a good thing to have starters who are not only on a roll, but also who aren’t likely to put you in a hole. Over the past 60 days, here’s how the starters have fared in not only pitching well (I’ll use the “quality start” definition of at least 6 ip and no more than 3 runs allowed), but also in NOT pitching badly (I’ll use a minimum of 5 runs allowed as a “bad start”):
Total Good Bad
Carpenter 11 9 0
Mulder 10 7 1
Suppan 12 6 0
Marquis 11 5 5
Morris 11 2 4
It’s nice to see that the top three have had one bad (5+ run) start between them in the last two or so months. And while Marquis’s 5 “bad” starts have to make you nervous, two positives are that he’s also thrown well frequently, and he’s thrown well recently: 5 earned runs allowed in his last four starts, covering 32 innings.
When you take sentiment out of the equation, and all the attendant intangibles like veteran presence, etc., it’s hard to make any kind of case for Morris to be in the postseason rotation. He’s been the one pitcher least likely, by far, to throw a decent game, something you can’t afford to indulge in during the must-win atmosphere of October.
It is interesting to recall Morris’s lone 9-inning complete game of the season: back on June 6, “Good” Matt threw 9 against the World Champion Red Sox, allowing one run on four hits—by far his best game of the season. Will he get another chance to throw a similar game against them in October?
Like everybody else I've been thinking about this one a lot, and there are two basic arguments for Morris. First is that his career has been better than Marquis's. The problem with that is obvious, that this just isn't the same pitcher as what we saw in 2001. The second argument is the Great Man concept, that somehow the 2001 Morris will return, and he'll rise to the occasion. It sounds like mystical bunk to me, but I guess the best example would be Kirk Gibson against LaRussa's A's in 1988.
On a completely different note, everything I've read indicates that Morris will be gone after the season. Marquis probably will be back, which means there's a very good political reason to give him the start.
Posted by: Rob at September 17, 2005 01:56 PMBefore we judge Morris too harshly, I think it is fair to point out the struggles he has had against the Cubs:
GS CG GF W L Sv Sho IP H R ER HR BB K HBP BK WP ERA Win Pct. K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB
4 0 0 0 4 0 0 21 2/3 34 19 18 7 5 10 1 0 0 7.48 .000 4.2 2.1 2.91 2.00
Boy, do they have his number. And, barring an anti-miracle, they won't be in the postseason. Take away _those_ four games and he's been pretty good. Marquis, on the other hand, is randomly bad, which terrifies me. And I keep thinking about what Derrick Lowe did in the playoffs last year when given a farewell chance. . .
Posted by: bill at September 17, 2005 05:02 PM...except that Gibson was the 1988 Most Valuable Player... although hobbled, he was still coming off a great regular season in which he played in 150 games...
Morris has, for the most part, sucked for two years. Do we really need to be down 3-0 in the first inning against the Padres?
Posted by: salvo at September 17, 2005 05:06 PMEven if you do "cherry-pick" those 4 Cubs starts from Morris' larger, non-good-streak pitching over the course of the season, you're still left with a pitcher with a 4.19 era in more than 100 innings...again, AFTER you've removed four bad starts... that's just not a very effective pitcher.
I'd much rather go with Marquis---assuming he keeps it up for the next three starts---and keep him on a short leash just to see if he's having one of his effective starts, the kind he's been turning in over the last few weeks.
Morris HASN'T been turning in effective starts over the last few weeks, not against the Cubs or against anybody else.
Posted by: salvo at September 17, 2005 06:13 PMI'm certainly not defending Morris, salvo. I do think LaRussa thinks that way though, especially if his recent gushing over a young Cal Eldred is any indication.
The thing that really bothers me about Morris isn't so much that he's reverted to 2004 as it is the Cardinals don't seem to know how to fix him. Duncan was pretty insistent that he understood Mulder's problems, and since Mulder started throwing inside more during the Rockies game, Mulder's pitched well. Marquis was struggling and the Cardinals were convinced that he wasn't throwing enough sinkers. Then Marquis starts throwing more sinkers and voila he's throwing complete games. When they're doing strange things like having Morris throw to batters between starts, then it sounds like they're guessing.
Posted by: Rob at September 17, 2005 11:28 PM"It is interesting to recall Morris’s lone 9-inning complete game of the season: back on June 6, “Good” Matt threw 9 against the World Champion Red Sox, allowing one run on four hits—by far his best game of the season. Will he get another chance to throw a similar game against them in October?"
Ah, I'm glad I was in attendance at that June 6 game. Obviously, my being there inspired him. So if he's in the postseason rotation, y'all want to take up a collection to make sure I can attend all the games he pitches?
;-)
Posted by: Len Cleavelin at September 18, 2005 10:11 AMGood post, salvo, and good point about the "tinkering", Rob.
What a tough decision - and just because one pitches well or poorly in the playoffs doesn't mean the other wouldn't do the same.
While there's something that frightens me a little about starting Marquis in the WS, I think he deserves to be the #4 man as we enter the playoffs. If he looks bad in the LDS or LCS, I have no problem with yanking him for Morris in the WS (knock on wood).
Posted by: Matt at September 19, 2005 09:52 PMYour sack needs a beard drawn on it.
And I won't be able to watch any game Morris starts in the post-season, unless we're up three games to none.
Posted by: Scottius Maximus at September 20, 2005 06:47 AM