Time For some Over-analysis and second-guessing

« What they said | Main | The perfect pitcher »

Why not?

Here are some random thoughts, I'd like to hear what all you experts out there think.

**At this point in time, would anyone rather have Danny Haren than Mark Mulder? [no]

**Is there anyone who, regardless of their price or age, would still rather have Matheny over Molina? In fact, is Molina the most under-rated player on our team? [no, yes - i love this kid's grit and grin]

**I love Eck, Jed and Puj as our 1,2,3 hitters. Eck is the only choice for leadoff. Edmonds high OBP, low GIDP and power threat make him a perfect 2nd (although I could hear arguments for cleanup), and of course you have Puj batting 3rd for the exact reason we saw last night. Who bats 4th? Larry Walker? I have the sinking feeling Walker is a bluff right now. He's seeing the ball fine, but he is getting absolutely no sting on his contact. But if not L-Dubs at cleanup, who? [Walker's worth the bluff, keep him at 4]

**Should Reggie Sanders be in the starting lineup? Can he hit Oswalt? Is his LF defense valuable? [I say bench him. Try Rodriguez or Taguchi.]

**Do we all like batting the pitcher 9th? [I say yes.]

**Who plays 3rd, Luna or Mabry? [I say Luna.]

**OK, I need to go back to it, is there any way that Pujol's HR was only 412 feet? [looked more like 512 ft.]

**Will there be a more exciting place to be in the universe than Busch Stadium on Wednesday night?

**That was definitely a balk by Pettite. Even so, sending the runner? Good decision? [no.]

**Although it was obvious Carp was fading and that Berkman is the Stros best hitter, I can't fault LaRussa for leaving him in. That HR was weak and wouldn't have happened in Busch or most other parks.

**Should we hire a different artist to sculpt Pujols's statue than the one who did Musial's? [yes.]

Posted by Ryan at October 18, 2005 06:37 PM
TrackBacks (Trackback URL: http://www.thebirdwatch.com/mt/bw-tb.pl/1011)

**Is there anyone who, regardless of their price or age, would still rather have Matheny over Molina? In fact, is Molina the most under-rated player on our team? [no, yes - i love this kid's grit and grin]

- No, and in fact, when we get to game 7, Molina needs to be hitting 6th against Clemens. He's had success in the past (.333), and is probably our best weapon in the bottom half of the order right now, since Grudz decided not to wake up until last night. Molina and Eck are probably my favorite players to watch right now in all of baseball.

**Should Reggie Sanders be in the starting lineup? Can he hit Oswalt? Is his LF defense valuable? [I say bench him. Try Rodriguez or Taguchi.]

- No way, man - he HAS to be in there. Sanders in his career is .286 with a HR, 2B and 4 RBI against Oswalt, not too shabby. He has to play on Wednesday night - and if I'm TLR, he's batting 5th. I don't trust Rodriguez yet in this kind of game. Gotta have the experience in there. And Taguchi is the speed/glove off the bench, gotta hold on to him.

My lineup for Wednesday:
Eck, Jed, Albert, Sanders, Walker, Molina, Grudz, Luna, Mulder

**Do we all like batting the pitcher 9th? [I say yes.]

- Duh.

**Who plays 3rd, Luna or Mabry? [I say Luna.]

- Mabry has terrible numbers against Oswalt. Gotta start Luna and save Mabry for a pinch-hit/defensive sub. He's too valuable with his defensive flexibility.

**OK, I need to go back to it, is there any way that Pujol's HR was only 412 feet? [looked more like 512 ft.]

- It was at least 150 ft. longer than Fatty's.

**Will there be a more exciting place to be in the universe than Busch Stadium on Wednesday night?

- No.

**That was definitely a balk by Pettite. Even so, sending the runner? Good decision?

- Well, I'll say that having followed TLR for my entire life, I'm not surprised by it one bit. But you can't make two outs on the bases like that in October. So probably not the best move.

**Although it was obvious Carp was fading and that Berkman is the Stros best hitter, I can't fault LaRussa for leaving him in. That HR was weak and wouldn't have happened in Busch or most other parks.

- Couldn't have said it better myself. Besides, do you really want Tavarez out there giving that up? I'll take the exhausted best pitcher in the league any day over anyone fresh in the Cards' pen.

**Should we hire a different artist to sculpt Pujols's statue than the one who did Musial's? [yes.]

- Oh, this is only the beginning. I can feel it.

Posted by: Aaron at October 18, 2005 07:01 PM

1) Also no. Unless he sucks tomorrow.

2) Matheny had a career year offensively out in the San Fran, but Yady wasn't so bad himself, especially after the slow start. He'll be around a while.

3) I agree with your lineup. Sanders cleanup is fine against lefties, but it's risky against righties. Larry's too much of a slap hitter right now, though, so it hurts, but he's looked better the past few games. And there's nobody else, really. So Pujols can be a beast without anybody hitting effectively behind him, although if Eck and Edmonds keep getting on ahead of him like yesterday, there'll be so many baserunners, someone has to score.

4) If anything, Reggie goes down for J-Rod. But he was hot in the first four games of the postseason, and that wasn't long ago, so I say keep him in the lineup.

5) Um... yeah?

6) Luna. He's not significantly worse hitter than Nunez, and not a whole lot worse on defense, which Mabry is. If 1-7 hit alright, I don't mind giving away a spot in the order.

7) It may very well have been 412. It would have been out of any park, though. And since that wall is such a joke, any ball hit hard enough to get out of a normal ballpark that direction will look like a moon shot in Houston.

8) Um, no way.

9) I don't disagree terribly with sending the runner. They'd been 2-for-2 so far. With no outs, though, it's a risky call.

10) I don't disagree with Carp staying in either. He got us there, and as our ace, it was his game to lose. Plus, he was cruising through the 5th and 6th. Berkman's ball would've been a ringing double most other places, which probably would've given them the lead nonetheless, but yeah, it was definitely a cheap home run. Perhaps Reggie throwing out Ensberg at second directly thereafter was a bigger play than we realize.

11) Yeah, the big Musial statue is pretty scary.

Posted by: MO Boiler at October 18, 2005 07:01 PM

If Nunez is healthy, start Nunez. Carp got us there. I'll reply in-depth after 10.

Posted by: Daniel at October 18, 2005 07:12 PM

- No way, man - he HAS to be in there. Sanders in his career is .286 with a HR, 2B and 4 RBI against Oswalt, not too shabby. He has to play on Wednesday night - and if I'm TLR, he's batting 5th. I don't trust Rodriguez yet in this kind of game. Gotta have the experience in there. And Taguchi is the speed/glove off the bench, gotta hold on to him.

But he was hot in the first four games of the postseason, and that wasn't long ago, so I say keep him in the lineup.

**He was hot against *San Diego* and before he almost knocked himself unconscious for a moderately difficult fly ball. He has looked clueless at the plate since. I like his veteran presence and the fact he can punish big mistake pitches with power. But, i think his defense is suspect, his health is suspect and he's generally ineffective against really good pitching. If the rest of the lineup were hitting the ball, I'd say leave him in. But our guys have had trouble even making contact this series. To bench him is a controversial point, I know, but no matter what, I would not bat him 4th.

And why don't you "trust Rodriquez"? He jacked a ball 418 feet (deeper, apparently than Pujol's HR) for an out the other night. He's not a green rookie.

Posted by: Ryan at October 18, 2005 07:19 PM

Haren over Mulder right now? No. Haren, Calero, Barton over Mulder? Yes.

Yady over Mike? Yes, and I was fine with Matheny, sort of a light-hitting Tom Pagnozzi (check their numbers with the Cards, Pags OPS is about 15 points higher, plus better AVG.)

Ecky, Jimmy, and Albert? Fine with me.

Reggie? No, for some reason, I say go with the Gooch. I just have this sense he'll do something big.

Pitcher 9th? uh-huh.

Mabry or Luna? NO JOHN MABRY! None, bring me Chris Duncan, or Seabol, I don't care, I just don't want Mabry. Better yet, designate Marquis as "position player" get Anthony Reyes (I know it's too late for this, just dreaming).

Albert's HR? HR distance > 412 feet.

Busch Stadium? Real loud, unless Mulder bombs in the first.

Balk? Missed it. Sending Ecky? Yes, I'm always a fan of running baseball. Screw "station to station".

Blame Carp? Hell no. It was a cheapo HR, probably wouldn't have even happened if Luna hadn't forgotten how to field. If they had lost, Carp would not have been on my blame list.

Albert's statue? Who cares? Just make the damn thing large and fierce looking, like that statue Bender had on "Futurama". Flames shooting from the eyes, loud voice booming "REMEMBER ME!" Yes sir, Mr. Pujols!

Posted by: CalvinPitt at October 18, 2005 07:56 PM

The case can be made to start JRod against the righty Oswalt, but I still think you have to go with the proven guys like SAnders.

Posted by: ryan vb at October 18, 2005 08:55 PM

The case can be made to start JRod against the righty Oswalt, but I still think you have to go with the proven guys like SAnders.

Posted by: ryan vb at October 18, 2005 08:56 PM

Now, for my more in-depth reply as promised...

Mulder's numbers are better with St. Louis than Haren's are with Oakland. Mulder gave up less homers this year than Haren. Mulder needs to pitch like he did against the Padres and we have to have the run support that the Astros are usually lacking.

I like Molina's numbers but Matheny did have better numbers this season. However, I think we found our long-term catcher in Yadier Molina. He is underated.

Keep the same top 4 in the line-up.

While I like Reggie, he has not been up to par since the injury. I agree: JRod or Taguchi.

Yes, stay at 9th.

Go with Luna unless Abraham Nunez is healthy enough to play.

If the roof was down, I'd say it's in the Pacific Ocean. However, because the roof was up, it was 412 feet, it would have been longer.

No, Busch is the place to be.

No.

Carp was fading but only in Houston.

Yes.

Posted by: Daniel at October 18, 2005 09:24 PM

1. Mulder > Haren, Calero, and Barton

2. Yadi > Matheny

3. Keep the top 4 the same.

4. I say you gotta play Reggie. Use all your bullets.

5. Yeah, the pitcher should hit 9th.

6. I say Nunez plays third.

7. Pujols HR was 412 when it hit the wall, and I'm pretty sure it had just barely started to decline at the time.

8. Busch fo sho.

9. no opinion.

10. You definitely keep Carp out there. In any other park, that Berkman HR was a double and would've tied the game.

11. Let's worry about other stuff before we worry about Pujols' 2025 statue.

Posted by: at October 18, 2005 10:38 PM

Post-Dispatch is reporting that Nunez will start in Game 6. How does that change the lineup?

My answers:

1. Mulder over Haren. No doubt about it. He hung with Oswalt in Game 1 (only 1 earned run) and gives us the best chance of shutting down the Astros tomorrow. Plus, I like turning Berkman around to his right.

2. Molina over Matheny. His defense has been amazing and has had a hot bat to boot. Plus he cost us next to nothing, allowing money to be spent on guys like Eck and Grudz. The most underrated player on the team is Izzy (though he drives me crazy).

3. I'd keep Walker in 4th to keep it righty-lefty. Plus, I've got a feeling he's going to come though in a big way tomorrow night. He hits Oswalt well historically.

4. Sanders stays in. He also hits Oswalt well and if he's healthy enough to play, he should be in there. Plus, as a previous poster pointed out, we need to keep Rodriguez and Gooch on the bench for speed, etc. We can always double switch him out later.

5. Pitcher ninth, of course. Even if it was Marquis.

6. Nunez at third. See above. Otherwise start Mabry (Luna has looked horrible at the plate and at least Mabry has faced Oswalt before).

7. 412 feet is such a crock. No one believes it.

8. Wish I could be at Busch but I'll be here in DC watching the game. Said my goodbyes over Memorial Day (though I do have stadium seats coming after the season is over!).

9. Sending Eckstein was the right decision. The Cards obviously had Pettitte's number and were taking advantage of it. Bad no call by the ump (but who's really surprised?).

10. I like the Musial statue. The real question is, is he holding a bat or is he pointing at the sky?

Posted by: dccardsfan at October 18, 2005 11:57 PM

"Albert's statue? Who cares? Just make the damn thing large and fierce looking, like that statue Bender had on "Futurama". Flames shooting from the eyes, loud voice booming "REMEMBER ME!" Yes sir, Mr. Pujols!"

I totally said that to my roommate when he came back after the game was over and we commenced watching the highlight 10,000 times. I also said that the only the home run gets any better is if the entire stadium collapsed because of it, and the last man standing on the rubble was Pujols, in a Captain Morgan-type stance with his bat in hand.

Damn gimmick park.

Posted by: Aaron at October 19, 2005 02:28 AM

My only quibble might be with 3). I know it's tantamount to blasphemy, since without Jimmy in the 2-spot, The Homer wouldn't have happened (btw, does that homer need some kind of name?), but his career stats really, really favor him batting 5th. Maybe Larry could bat 2nd; his eye is just as good as Jed's, methinks. That puts Reggie in cleanup, which ordinarily would be okay, but since coming back he's looked a little off. So maybe the 1-2-3 hitters stay where they are. Whatever the lineup, we need to string a few hits ('n walks) TOGETHER tonight.

Posted by: Hummingbird at October 19, 2005 06:30 AM

Sorry for not answering these questions in order, just how the fractured mind works.

I think Jimmy and Walker are almost interchangeable at this point. Both are seeing the ball well and can get on base, both have big time power potential, niether have hit much this season and postseason. Nevertheless, you keep Jimmy in that 2 spot and you might well get a HR or 2B from him, bringing Eck home for an early run.

Where's Barton going to play for the Cards? First is out. Catcher is out. Move him to 3B, nope. OF, maybe, but if he doesn't adjust to the position well, the Cards won't suffer defensive liabilities. I'm glad they got Mulder (Haren and Calero should have been sufficient) but even if they didn't I still would argue to swap him for blue chip prospects at another position.

Now for some real blashpemy, I'd be more inclined to move Rolen for a younger, healthier CF in a couple years when Jimmy hangs up the cleats.

Posted by: ryan vb at October 19, 2005 08:19 AM

I fully meant "blasphemy." You've got to type fast when you spend a good part of the work day posting comments in Card blogs.

Be aggressive with Roy and get to him early. His young mind might not recover till next season.

Posted by: ryan vb at October 19, 2005 08:22 AM

Mulder ~= Haren

See if you can figure out who has which numbers:

BB/9: 3.11 vs. 2.20
K/9: 4.93 vs. 6.76
HR/9: 0.87 vs. 1.08
ERA: 3.75 vs. 3.73
RA+: 1.11 vs. 1.13
IP/Start: 6.4 vs. 6.4
VORP: 33.7 vs. 39.5

So the guy that walks fewer batters, strikes out more, gives up a few more homers, but had essentially the same performance in terms of runs and innings was ... Danny Haren.

I'd call it essentially a push in terms of "who do I want on the mound right now?"

Posted by: Jason at October 19, 2005 11:54 AM

**At this point in time, would anyone rather have Danny Haren than Mark Mulder?

[TSF] Mulder is part of the staff that didn't miss a start this season until TLR intentionally started Anthony Reyes to give them a little extra rest. Mulder is a key piece of what got us here. Would Haren? Don't know, don't care. Mulder's the guy.

**Is there anyone who, regardless of their price or age, would still rather have Matheny over Molina? In fact, is Molina the most under-rated player on our team?

[TSF] Gonna sound repetitive here, but Yady Yady Yady is the catcher that, for the most part, handled the staff throughout this 100-win season. He is a key component of what got us here. Someone should look up record with Molina behind the plate and without. (I would but I don't know where, and I'm too busy blog-commenting to search for it myself.) Molina is part of what got us here -- I go with Yady. I think it's a tossup between M-Grud and Yady as to who is most underrated.

**I love Eck, Jed and Puj as our 1,2,3 hitters. Eck is the only choice for leadoff. Edmonds high OBP, low GIDP and power threat make him a perfect 2nd (although I could hear arguments for cleanup), and of course you have Puj batting 3rd for the exact reason we saw last night. Who bats 4th? Larry Walker? I have the sinking feeling Walker is a bluff right now. He's seeing the ball fine, but he is getting absolutely no sting on his contact. But if not L-Dubs at cleanup, who?

[TSF] Tonight, against a righty, it will be Walker. Should it be? Prior to the start of the postseason, I liked Nunez at 2, Edmonds at 4, and Walker at 6. Now, maybe move M-Grud in at #2. Of course, the way the 9th played out Monday night, we probably shouldn't tinker too much. TLR knows what he's doing.

**Should Reggie Sanders be in the starting lineup? Can he hit Oswalt? Is his LF defense valuable?

[TSF] Yes, yes, and not as much as his bat.

**Do we all like batting the pitcher 9th?

[TSF] I assumed this was just the control question, to make sure that the person answering the questions was sane, so my answer is "Bismarck, North Dakota".

**Who plays 3rd, Luna or Mabry?

[TSF] All the pregame writing says Nunez. If not A-O, I go with Luna. Mabry's not as good there, and he's a better pinch hitter.

**OK, I need to go back to it, is there any way that Pujol's HR was only 412 feet?

[TSF] Apparently the Astros players were ragging Lidge that it almost hit the plane. No word on whether they did that on takeoff from Houston or landing in St. Louis.

**Will there be a more exciting place to be in the universe than Busch Stadium on Wednesday night?

[TSF] Busch Stadium on Thursday night. :-)

**That was definitely a balk by Pettite. Even so, sending the runner? Good decision?

[TSF] Has Ausmus thrown anybody out stealing in this series? My quick read of the box scores says no. And yes, Pettitte has picked off a bunch of runners, but if they allow him to move his shoulder toward home and then throw to first, he's gonna pick off a lot more. I don't have a problem with that call by TLR.

**Although it was obvious Carp was fading and that Berkman is the Stros best hitter, I can't fault LaRussa for leaving him in. That HR was weak and wouldn't have happened in Busch or most other parks.

[TSF] Yeah, but we've got to remember that (well, not any more this season, but you know what I mean) and not give them pitches that can be lifted into the blankety-blank Crawford box seats.

**Should we hire a different artist to sculpt Pujols's statue than the one who did Musial's?

[TSF] There's plenty of time to worry about the statue. Albert's already said that his HR tonight will be bigger than his home run in game 5.

Later,
TSF

Posted by: TedSimmonsFan at October 19, 2005 02:44 PM