SABR Rattlings

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Pip at Fungoes has a nifty chart up that compresses a whole lot of baseball into a 3x5 note card. How did the Cardinals win 100 games? They had no glaring weaknesses -- they and Atlanta were the only NL teams without D's, and the Braves had a C- grade -- and they only had two minor weak spots, at catcher and with their #2 starter. Pip used Win Shares, which I suspect undervalues Yadier's defense, although the Cardinals obviously had some problems with their backups. Win Shares says Jason Marquis was the #2 starter, which probably results in a lot of "Huh?!? Oh, yeah" exclamations.

This method for evaluating pitchers has some awkward consequences, as Chris Carpenter only gets a "B", while Matt Morris somehow gets an "A". In hindsight, you'd like see of those #5 pitcher Win Shares shifted to 3B or the outfield for post-season purposes, but back in December there was no way to know the Cardinals' front five would be good for 160 starts. Actually the ideal destination for added quality would've been the #2 starter's spot. Too bad the distribution of good luck wasn't more skewed. Jocketty correctly identified the Cardinals' post-season need, just Mulder didn't get the job done in 2005.

My other piece of news comes from the SABR Bulletin. Have you seen those Google ads about becoming a baseball scout? If you're a baseball fan, there's an obvious appeal. In fact the ads remind me a little of those MMF schemes, as if they're too good to be true. Longtime scout Bill Clark confirms my suspicion:

What advice would you give to someone who wants to be a scout?

Don’t. And I’ve told several people that. Until you have your future in your own hands, don’t. Don’t be caught up miasma of glory that goes with being a big-league scout. It’s nice to sit in a ball park and say, "I’m a major league scout." But then you come home to find out that you don’t have a job and your family now is in jeopardy.

I guess I'll stick to my TAS reports for another few years then.

Posted by Rob at November 21, 2005 06:16 PM
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