The Birdwatch: How Bad Is It Really?

How Bad Is It Really?

As I soon as I say the Morris news was good news, I read that MattyMo has kicked the Cardinals off the island. It's been that kind of offseason. I presume Rick Hummel got this from the horse's mouth and not a rumors site, so I'll offer best wishes to Morris. The same article promises that Ricardo Rincon will be joining the Cardinals shortly. Rincon's peripherals have gone into the toilet the last couple of years, but if John Hart ever takes over the Padres franchise, we could get Brian Giles for him.

Bernie Miklasz piled on. It's a bit unfair to blame the owners for the team's shortcomings four months before the next season's even started, but the signals are discouraging. With a new stadium going up, hardcore fans should be concerned that the Cardinals intend to move from a "great product/decent venue" model to a "decent product/great venue" model. One thing Miklasz could've added is that revenue sharing reflects spending on new stadia, which is to say the other 29 baseball owners effectively are paying part of the Busch III bill. Neil deMause has the details.

As if anticipating Miklasz's comments, Jocketty evidently had a press conference. "You'd like to think we've earned the benefit of the doubt," Jocketty says. On a more practical level, Jocketty's hinting that Luna will be the starting 2B in 2006. The way the Cardinals have handled 2B the previous two seasons and look to be handling it in 2006 got me thinking about something Chris Dial wrote three years ago. He found the difference between an average 2B and a replacement level 2B was pretty thin, and as he put it in the comments to his study, "Second base is probably the most over-paid position in baseball."

My final link, and a segue to some actual content, comes from Alan Schwarz at the New York Times. Says Mr. Schwarz:

Gardenhire’s optimism, not uncommon among managers and players, is rarely shared by the more statistically trained executives actually swinging these deals. Despite all the hype that trades and free-agent signings receive during December, individual signings, even astute ones, usually portend fewer victories than many people expect.

The converse is that players lost aren't as important as us whiners believe. So the question comes up, just how much have defections and trades hurt to this point? Well, let's crunch some numbers.

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Cardinals as a whole were 70.3 wins above replacement level in 2006. They lost the following players, their WARP1s, their batting outs and their innings pitched:

ROGER CEDENO       -0.8   51    0.0
EINAR DIAZ          0.2  105    0.0
CAL ELDRED          1.2    2   37.0
MARK GRUDZIELANEK   4.0  381    0.0
KEVIN JARVIS       -0.3    0    3.3
JIMMY JOURNELL     -0.4    0    4.3
RAY KING            1.8    0   40.0
JOHN MABRY          0.6  195    0.0
MATT MORRIS         2.7   60  192.7
ABRAHAM NUNEZ       2.4  311    0.0
BILL PULSIPHER      0.0    0    4.0
AL REYES            3.3    2   62.7
REGGIE SANDERS      3.5  218    0.0
JULIAN TAVAREZ      2.0    1   65.7
LARRY WALKER        3.3  227    0.0
GABE WHITE          0.2    0    8.3
TOTAL              23.7 1553  418.0

On the naive assumption that we can carry 2005 results directly to 2006, the Cardinals have lost about 24 wins from the 2005 team, so in my little rollforward they're presently sitting at 76+ wins. Of course we need to add some people on and give some returning players more playing time to make up those 1500 outs and 400 innings. I'll make some guesses at WARP1s, outs and innings:

GARY BENNETT      +0.3  +105   +0.0
LARRY BIGBIE      +2.5  +320   +0.0
DEIVI CRUZ        +1.8  +300   +0.0
HECTOR LUNA       +2.2  +240   +0.0
JUAN MATEO        +1.1    +0  +50.0
AARON MILES       +0.5  +100   +0.0
ANTHONY REYES     +2.2   +55 +180.0
RICARDO RINCON    +1.7    +0  +45.0
JOHN RODRIGUEZ    +1.5  +100   +0.0
ADAM WAINWRIGHT   +1.1    +5  +50.0
NON ENTITIES      +0.0  +325  +95.0
TOTAL            +14.9 +1550 +420.0

Playing time for Bennett, Bigbie and Cruz is basically determined by Einar, the 2005 outfielders and Nuñez. Their WARPs are then pro-rated according to career WARP per career outs. Miles used a similar pro-rata, but his projected playing time is roughly what Luna got in 2005. Luna's extra playing time is supposed to put him close to Grudzielanek, give or take, and I've assumed he'll match his career WARP per career out ratio. Reyes is supposed to match Morris, for better and for worse. I've guessed Wainwright and Mateo would be half a Suppan, which isn't as hard as it sounds, since Suppan gave up a bunch of unearned runs. Wainwright and Mateo (who's well-liked by ZiPS BTW) more or less form a proxy for whatever mediocre pitching the Cardinals add. Rodriguez got pro-rated to a larger role versus 2005, which admittedly is something of a guess.

You can see the various problems with these assumptions, but I don't see anything here grotesquely unreasonable. This isn't exactly a team in freefall. At 91 or so wins, they're probably the best team in the NL Central by a few games, and that's before any possible fine-tuning with the bullpen or in the outfield and before considering what a healthy Scott Rolen should add.

Posted by Rob at December 11, 2005 06:10 PM

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This makes sense... remember, folks, it is not possible to win (or lose) the World Series in December. Bernie will lay off unless the Cards get off to a slow start next season... IN APRIL!

Posted by: The Ol Goaler at December 11, 2005 11:14 PM

Rob,

Very nice read. I ejoyed it alot.

Sounds like things are quite as bad as alot of people believe. Plus, and I know alot of people who have followed this team closely for a long time know this, Walt isn't done.

He is notorious for coming up with moves that we never expected. I wouldn't put it past him to do the same this year.

Keep up the good work.

Posted by: Bobby B at December 12, 2005 12:47 AM

ROB,

VERY GOOD ARTICLE, THANK YOU!!!

I LIKED WHAT ROTO AUTHORITY HAD TO SAY ABOUT THE MORRIS SIGNING:

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2005/11/fantasy_basebal_2.html

I DON'T THINK HIS PROJECTIONS (INCLUDING INJURY) ARE GOING TO BE TOO FAR OFF....

Posted by: TOLAXOR at December 12, 2005 05:07 AM

RotoAuthority sounds rough on Morris to me. I really do think he ran out of gas and will be fine with a winter's worth of rest. I don't blame the Cards for not sharing my optimism.

Posted by: Rob at December 12, 2005 06:23 AM

Yeah, nice article. I know some famous person is known for saying this, but I believe it, Don't overpay for mediocrity. Our rotation should be fine without Morris. (I liked Morris, he has decent talent but continues to develop as a mental pitcher and is a real competitor, but we don't need him at $7mill.)

And our team should be fine too. We probably won't be as good on paper as last year, but with a healthy Rolen we'll still be on top of the Central heap.

Fans are getting freaked out by the big moves made by Toronto and Mets, etc, especially losing Burnett to Tor, but if those teams' risky and expensive moves DO pay off, they'll maybe be as good as the Cards.

I also like your position on 2b. I'd much rather put 2 mill into the bullpen than 2b. Looks like we just signed Rincon, who should play well against lefties.

Let's hope we continue to see a series of "filling in the cracks" moves by Jock. He's always done that really well.

We should hear about an OFer soon too, eh?

Posted by: Ryan at December 12, 2005 12:03 PM

Your second-base remark is aptly illustrated by the Birds' own experience over the past several years: Vina goes down to injury in 2003, Bo Hart steps in just fine and we don't miss a beat.

Then the Birds pick up Womack for the league minimum in '04, and he does just fine.

Then the Birds pick up Grudz for the realtive bargain of $1mil, and he does just fine. Were he to have been injured last year instead of Rolen, then we can see that Abe Nunez (what was he, $700K?) could have filled in at 2b and done just fine.

Now for 2006 we've got Luna, who will, I'm pretty confident, step in for around the minimum and do just fine.

It'd be one thing if the Birds had been used to having a perennial All Star, like Jeff Kent or an in-his-prime Craig Biggio, manning the keytsone. But they've been able to cheaply maintain their 2b performance for a number of years because cheap, average 2b aren't too hard to find, apprently.

That's why I'm not too woriied about losing Grudz, and I think Luna will be just as good, if not better.

Posted by: salvo at December 12, 2005 12:20 PM

Does anyone know if the Cards still pursuing Dotel or Looper? Haven't heard anything about that for awhile.

Posted by: Fitz at December 12, 2005 01:31 PM

They both have been offered two year deals but other than that i haven't heard anything. Just that they are both mulling over their options.

Posted by: Zach at December 12, 2005 02:26 PM

Heaven forbid Cruz gets as many ABs as Nunez did last year...

Posted by: MO Boiler at December 12, 2005 05:29 PM

Yes, I think I was conservative by giving Cruz that much playing time. If he plays in the outfield then those numbers may turn negative though. Thinking about it some more, Cruz being the backup shortstop probably means Luna's intended for starting 2B.

I'm not sure I let LaRussa have two backup middle infielders if I'm Jocketty.

Posted by: Rob at December 12, 2005 06:55 PM

Well St. Louis Cards fans how now does it feel that nobody wants to play for the Cardinals anymore and the league hated Tony LaRussa. I remember when LaRussa was with the White Sox and Oakland, he had a few years that impressed me, but he is a cheating, rude, slob.
I just can't figure out why Matt Morris didn't want to come back, why A.J. Burnett said no to Walt Jockitchy, Larry Walker gone, Reggie Sanders gone, Mark Grudzielanek gone, Ray King gone, Julian Travarez gone, and who else is gone and wants to leave. I think Jimmy 'Boy' Edmonds wants to say goodbye. So now all you have left is the corner infield position players, Scott Rolen and Albert Pooholes.

Posted by: Jerry Pelka at December 13, 2005 11:43 AM

Gotta love Cub fans. How many games did you guys win last year? Good luck with Juan Pierre, I'm sure he is the answer to your prayers. Have you guys cleaned up all that cork on the field yet that exploded out of Sammy's bat? Just checking, good luck this year!

Posted by: Paul O at December 13, 2005 12:49 PM

Jerry, straight up, you're a moron. Here are the reasons those players aren't playing for the Cards this year:

1) Morris: money.
2) Burnett: money.
3) Walker: age.
4) Reggie: money.
5) Grudzy: money.
6) King: complained about not pitching in the playoffs, he was expendable, so Walt traded him.
7) Tavarez: money.

I won't even address Edmonds because clearly you made that up.

There you go. I'm not unhappy that our GM doesn't want to overpay for mediocrity, and I don't want my team saddled with a 5y/$55M contract for a pitcher with a history of elbow and mental problems. And hey, standing pat with a great core of players beats the hell out of panicking and giving 3-year contracts to crappy relievers with one good season to their names! I'll take our organization and front office over yours any day! Have fun with Dusty, Neifi, and a bunch of underachieving, injured starters next year.

Posted by: JeffW at December 13, 2005 06:55 PM

Posted by: IcCQTxSevB at December 18, 2005 03:05 PM