A Stats Dump
« How Bad Is It Really? | Main | Mr. Looper »Before the stats dump, I have a true story to tell. I was visiting my mom over the weekend and got to watch her feed the birds. She puts out peanuts, and she does it often enough that birds swoop down and take all the nuts within a few minutes. Then I noticed all the swooping birds were blue jays, and when I mentioned that to my mom, she said "Yeah. The blue jays take most of them. Occasionally a cardinal will sneak in and get one." I thought I was safe at my mom's.
Here are a few projections courtesy the 2006 Bill James Handbook, all projections for the player's last team. Seven guys who won't be Cardinals:
Milton Bradley 267 / 352 / 430 (sorry, Fitz) Luis Castillo 304 / 385 / 370 Mark Loretta 299 / 369 / 400 AJ Burnett 3.46 ERA Kiko Calero 2.99 ERA Ray King 3.48 ERA Matt Morris 3.82 ERA
Seven guys who will be Cardinals:
Larry Bigbie 263 / 333 / 391 Hector Luna 254 / 320 / 351 Aaron Miles 300 / 335 / 403 John Rodriguez 248 / 323 / 453 Chris Carpenter 3.74 ERA Jason Marquis 4.43 ERA (3.43 ERA without curveball) Ricardo Rincon 3.72 ERA
Yes, the Cardinals traded for a corner outfielder Bill James thinks would've slugged .391 playing half his games at Coors. Maybe it really is that bad. The computers didn't show a lot of love for Carpenter a year ago either. Seven guys who are still on the fence:
Chris Denorfia 301 / 367 / 490 see here Juan Encarnacion 265 / 323 / 430 D'Angelo Jimenez 261 / 356 / 376 Craig Monroe 283 / 335 / 469 Kevin Millwood 3.60 ERA Felix Rodriguez 3.80 ERA Jarrod Washburn 3.96 ERA
If D'Angelo Jimenez makes that projection, I'll buy Ray King a lifetime supply of hamburgers. The Reds still have an outfield quandary, although I assume Denorfia starts the season at Louisville.
Posted by Rob at December 13, 2005 09:56 PMYeah, we didn't get Bradley, which is dissapointing, despite the fact that Jocketty and Cardinals fans in general had absolutely no interest in him.
As a plus, we didn't sacrifice the rest of the decade by signing AJ Burnett or Matt Morris. Wish we had gotten Giles though.
Posted by: Fitz at December 13, 2005 11:28 PMInteresting that you included Craig Monroe's numbers in the last list, even though he's two years away from free agency (I think). His name came up in the comments at VeB earlier today and so I looked him up. Sort of a slightly better, significantly cheaper Jacque Jones at the plate, with decent power and poor strike-zone judgement.
Did you have a trade in mind? As great of a season John Rodriguez had, especially the poise he showed in his NLCS/Cuzzi-game AB replacing Jim Edmonds, it figures that he'll fall back to his minor-league mediocrity. His stock is high, his clock is fully wound, and we've already got a lefty outfielding platoon-mate in Bigbie.
Or did you figure we could have him for less, seeing the Tigers gave 2/$16mil to a 41-year-old Kenny Rogers?
Posted by: Liam at December 13, 2005 11:43 PMI LOOKED INTO MONROE BACK IN NOVEMBER, TAKE A LOOK AT HIS SPLITS:
V LHP: .909 OPS
V RHP: .729 OPS
MONROE WOULD DEMAND A HIGH PRICE FOR A GUY WHO WOULD DOMINATE AGAINST, WELL, ALL THE LHP IN THE NL CENTRAL, LIKE, UM, MILTON, AND, UM, RUSCH, AND...
YOU GET THE PICTURE...
I'M MUCH HIGHER ON J-ROD DEPSPITE HIS DREARY AUGUST:
J-ROD:
OPS V LHP: 737
OPS V RHP: 834
OPS IN JULY: 1.039
AUGUST: .693
SEPT: .836
Monroe would be a trade candidate. Just somebody to throw out there besides Kevin Mench. The real shock to me was Denorfia, whom Baseball America says is a pretty good defensive outfielder.
With Rodriguez I think the question is was his change prior to the 2004 season for real. I don't know if anybody's computers can answer that.
Posted by: Rob at December 14, 2005 10:46 AMA guy I wouldn't be terribly opposed to out there is Rondell White, who'd basically take over the role of a RH power bat/frequent DLer for Reggie. If Monroe can be had for "cheaper" (no significant player losses vs. the price for White), though, I say go for him.
Posted by: MO Boiler at December 15, 2005 12:22 PM