It Was A Good Read

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The Birdhouse has/had a three-part chat with Jeff Luhnow, Cardinals VP for Baseball Development. Luhnow's a sharp guy and a good interview, and he also knows how to project a good image to us Internet jackasses. The articles left me, and most others I suspect, with the feeling that the front office knows what it's doing. The articles aren't free any longer, but there are worse ways to spend your Christmas money. Some talking points:

• The Cardinals are investing decent chunks of change in the farm system, particularly in Latin America. After reading the Post-Dispatch's series, this was a "no duh, Sherlock" item. The big point is that they seem to be following Napoleon's advice: If you're going to take Venezuela, then take Venezuela. Talent pipeline, trading chips, organizational depth, yadda yadda yadda. We can see where the post-Edmonds Cardinals are headed.

• They're getting more scientific about pitcher mechanics. The Cardinals' #1 pick in 1999 -- the Pujols draft -- didn't pitch in 2005, in large part because of injuries. The Cardinals #1-rated prospect from the 2004 Baseball America has pitched 25 innings the last two seasons. You get the idea.

• The stat guys have a voice. You know about MGL and his defense metric UZR. They also have Sig Mejdal, a (former?) NASA biomathematician. While I'm not sure what a biomathematician does, based on his work in the last two Bill James Handbooks, Mejdal comes off as Will Carroll with numbers aptitude instead of networking skills. These guys aren't amateurs.

The interview is reassuring, even if it's PR-work as the Cardinals seem headed in the right direction. Luhnow's asking good questions and finding good answers.

* * *

With that in mind, I'd feel even sillier than normal if I skewered the Juan Encarnacion acquisition. MGL's given the deal his stamp of approval, and if you're using OPS and defensive Win Shares to argue with him, then you're taking knives to a gun fight. Even discounting the UZRs, Encarnacion looks to me to be the Cardinals' second-best outfielder in 2006. The team is stronger on paper and I don't see how else they could've spent the money, so I'm not complaining anyway. I am surprised at how keen ZiPs is on Encarnacion, even if its creator isn't so sanguine. Evidently the Marlins play in a park that kills batting average.

Some secondary consequences of the Encarnacion and Spivey moves:

• Rick Ankiel's fate seems sealed. Not that he had much of a shot at the major league roster, but it's hard to see him beating Rodriguez or Taguchi for one of the final outfield spots, and it's hard to see the Cardinals going with fewer than four middle infielders or twelve pitchers. Ankiel needs hundreds upon hundreds of at-bats anyway.

• The Cardinals have three outfielders, plus Edmonds, who can man center competently. I suppose this flexibility allows for the unthinkable, an Edmonds trade. Assuming he stays, Edmonds might want to get into the habit of packing his first baseman's mitt, since he's the apparent backup to Pujols.

• Luna should take Spivey's signing as a kick in the pants. Luna's not guaranteed a roster spot as Miles can bat left-handed, something none of the other middle infielders can do, and there isn't much need for a backup shortstop with Cruz around. I don't know what happened to Luna at Memphis (224 / 294 / 332 in 223 at-bats), but if he's a pouter, then he could find himself unemployed a year from now.

• The right side of the Cardinals infield looks to be Bert and Ernie. What did Juan Encarnacion's ancestor do to get a surname that means Incarnation?

Posted by Rob at December 26, 2005 08:46 PM
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Considering how fragile Jimmy can be at times, haveing options is smart

Posted by: Mark at December 27, 2005 03:44 PM