Not-so-happy new year!

ZiPS are up for the Cardinals and the executive summary isn't pretty. With the standard caveats about "computer projections" -- and the caveats shouldn't be taken lightly -- I've got the Cardinals scoring 810 runs and giving up 740, which would sum to a 88-win team. The problem isn't the offense, even with modest assumptions regarding production from the middle infield, Larry Bigbie and Yadier Molina. Rather it's the pitching, specifically the starting pitching. Again, there's stuff here that I don't think will happen in reality. ZiPS has left me with Mark Mulder's ennui face though.

Before I get to the gory details, a couple of notes:

• I did this last year and actually did pretty well according to BPro's adjusted standings. Of course there's the ongoing question of whether those extra 8 or 9 wins are luck or skill. I don't have a strong gut feeling, one way or the other.

• Unfortunately the Cardinals are moving into a new park. We're all going to live on the assumption that the Cardinals offense will be helped/hurt as much as the defense. Actually if the park plays like, say, Petco, that probably isn't the case for all those groundball pitchers. (And I'll be really ticked if we have to do those home/road splits for Pujols and Edmonds the same way they're done with Brian Giles. This could cost Edmonds a shot at Cooperstown and Pujols a shot at Musial.)

Numbers and notes below the fold.

First the hitters, using Extrapolated Runs:

PLAYER           BA   OBP   SLG    AB      XR  
Pujols         .337  .434  .652   575   144.8 
Edmonds*       .269  .387  .542   475    96.8 
Rolen          .285  .384  .522   525    99.4 
Spivey         .273  .356  .442   275    41.5 
Encarnacion    .284  .342  .450   525    75.6 
Rodriguez*     .259  .331  .461   300    45.0 
Eckstein       .284  .351  .372   550    69.0 
Redman         .263  .324  .420    50     6.5 
Bigbie*        .257  .328  .384   350    44.6 
Gall           .256  .314  .404    25     3.1 
Taguchi        .274  .309  .386   250    28.8 
Hernandez      .260  .335  .340    25     2.9 
Molina         .264  .315  .369   450    50.8 
Miles#         .270  .311  .365   200    21.7 
Cruz           .270  .299  .384   200    21.3 
Duncan*        .232  .309  .366    25     2.9 
Luna           .253  .314  .351   225    24.4 
Schumaker*     .257  .305  .339    25     2.5 
Hanson*        .235  .284  .359    25     2.5 
Bennett        .236  .303  .306   150    13.7 
Pitchers       .176  .211  .227   340    11.9 
TOTAL          .271  .340  .435 5,565   809.7 

• Pujols could have a decent little career, couldn't he? Some folks in my line of work spend their time projecting what will happen to their companies if a massive pandemic hits. My knee-jerk response is that (a) your company will go out of business and (b) nobody will give a rat's behind because everybody will be too busy trying to survive. That is to say, all we need to know about a serious Pujols injury is that it would very bad. The idea of Chris Duncan replacing Pujols in the lineup should provide plenty of comic material for jealous fans of NL Central rivals.

• Eckstein and Encarnacion's projections look aggressive, but Bigbie apparently is conservative. I've also got 600 at-bats in there for Cruz, Miles and Luna, which is a disgusting thought really. While this is Tony LaRussa's world, Prentice Redman's a decent enough RH OF that he should be on the roster over a fourth infielder who gets most of his playing time in the outfield. Besides, his middle name is Montezz.

• Just going by the stat lines Michel Hernandez looks like an improvement over Bennett. Why is Gary Bennett on the team again?

The pitchers:

PITCHER                ERA     IP      RA 
Isringhausen          3.10     60      23
Carpenter             3.16    180      69
Reyes                 3.72    130      59
Thompson              3.76     60      27
Looper                4.07     70      35
Flores*               4.13     40      20
Mateo                 4.21     35      18
Mulder*               4.22    180      92
Wainwright            4.50     70      38
Suppan                4.52    180      99
Ponson                4.57    160      89
Marquis               4.68    180     103
Johnson*              4.82     20      12
Rincon*               4.91     40      24
Rundles*              4.91     10       5
Cali*                 5.35     10       7
Pomeranz              5.52     10       7
Voyles                5.56     10       7
Webb                  5.77     10       7 
TOTAL                 4.58  1,455     741

• I know nothing, nothing about Rundles, Voyles and Webb and I doubt they'll be on the roster. They're this year's Jarvis, Journell and Pulsipher for projection purposes.

• I thought Jocketty was loopy when he said his main focus was starting pitching. Now I understand a little better why he was so hot for AJ Burnett.

• Suppan's projected ERA was 4.50 for 2004 and 4.52 for 2005. Maybe his whole Glavine-like "not giving in to good hitters" thing doesn't register with ZiPS. Or maybe Suppan's been lucky, although he's rattled off enough average seasons that I'd give him the benefit of the doubt. On the other hand you have Jason Marquis. I gave up my dream of being an NBA center at an early age and so spent my time learning fractions. Marquis has made more progress with his dream of being a great pitcher than I did with mine, but some day he'll have to accept his Suppan-esque role in life as an innings eater and shelve the curveball.

• In his recent interview with the Birdhouse, Jeff Luhnow said their high-powered projections for hitters aren't that different from the publicly available forecasts. It's the pitchers where they think they have the edge. Gee, I hope so. I'd guess MGL threw up his hands when asked to project a pitcher just out of jail. And thus I worry that the Cardinals' expectations for Sidney Ponson are based on experience with Bob Welch and Dennis Eckersley, and those comparisons just don't work for me. Welch had some great years with the Dodgers and Eckersley started the 1982 All-Star Game, while Ponson's muddled along. There seems to be an analogue for Nichols' Law of Catcher Defense, that the talents of players with personal problems are more highly regarded than they should be.

• Among the pitchers, the obvious downsides from the stats are Carpenter and Reyes. I'd feel better about both of them if Reyes had taken a few major league innings away from Carpenter. I made it twelve hours into the new year without a whine about LaRussa's handling of starting pitchers.

The Cardinals have their work cut out for them, don't they?