What Would Crash Do?
« "Redbirds: The Movie" Revisited | Main | Some Numbers »Kyle asks:
What's with the lack of actual "baseball" talk on this site lately? The team is falling apart at the seams, and the posts on this site show up about as often as Yaddi gets on base.
Good question. That is to say, the last day or two I've been preparing an explanation for my own silence.
My answer starts here: The Cardinals are a mediocre baseball team in a weak division. I think you can guess my reasoning, even if you don't agree with it. A while back I hypothesized that this kind of team would make for great blogging, the theory being that they'd have plenty of obvious weaknesses to analyze while being good enough that you wouldn't just give up on them. In this case, the Cardinals are in first place, but everyone's favorite mediocrity currently leads Cardinal outfielders in WARP and the pitching's not been good. The farm is weak, with the only valuable trade-bait -- Reyes and Wainwright -- almost untouchable due to the needs of 2007 and beyond, so what you see is what you get.
The problem is that, well, these weaknesses are obvious to Cardinal fans. I can quantify them, spin them or maybe sneer at them. The first one seems pointless -- unless you live in a cave you know about the struggles of Mulder, Marquis and Edmonds -- I don't have the chutzpah to do the second, and the last one, while perhaps most appropriate, doesn't hold much appeal for me these days. Whenever I'm tempted to follow that path, I remember my favorite quote from the other Bill James:
The mood of a Schopenhauer or a Nietzsche,- and in a less degree one may sometimes say the same of our own sad Carlyle,- though often an ennobling sadness, is almost as often only peevishness running away with the bit between its teeth. The sallies of the two German authors remind one, half the time, of the sick shriekings of two dying rats. They lack the purgatorial note which religious sadness gives forth.
I don't want to sound like a dying rat.
Jocketty's offseason work was much criticized, and looking back, the offseason is proving a mixed bag. Looper has been adequate and the 2B situation has worked out well enough in spite of the Spivey debacle. Encarnacion, like Sanders in 2004, has struggled with his OBP, but again probably would be best classified as mediocre. Ponson's gotten by as a starter. Left field has been a mess, although that's partially a function of Taguchi's place in LaRussa's pecking order. Overall the offseason was filled with filler, nothing more and nothing less.
We've been conditioned to expect 'more'. The thing is, with the benefit of hindsight we know this is a mediocre team. Unless Brian Giles could've been coaxed into leaving his hometown, along with another thing or two, it's clear we weren't getting that 'more'. If Jocketty had flushed away the farm, he would've ended up like Sizemore on Luna's bloop Monday night -- about ten feet short and hoping somebody covered for him. In fact, if it weren't for Bernie Miklasz banging the payroll drum, it probably would've been a good idea to let Spivey, Encarnacion and Looper pass, even though it probably would've cost the Cardinals a couple of games.
This is a wait-it-out season (so what is Sterling Hitchcock doing these days?). Neither a buyer nor seller be. Win an ugly division, let LaRussa continue his LDS mastery, and hope the Cardinals hit .450 with RISP in the LCS and World Series. I don't like this situation. I also don't see any point to dwelling on it. Baseball's supposed to be fun.
Posted by Rob at June 27, 2006 11:23 PMMy silence has to do with the fact that my inconsiderate employer has a number of projects that he wants yesterday (he wants *everything* yesterday), and my lack of writing talent and baseball knowledge, which prevents me from getting paid to write about baseball for a living.
:-(
Posted by: Len Cleavelin at June 28, 2006 11:51 AMJust one thought: John Smoltz is screaming his availability. We love signing guys near the end of their career (Clark, Walker et al). Sign Smoltz, spend the money.
Posted by: Greg K at June 28, 2006 03:58 PMI agree we're running thin right now. But I think we're a little more than just a medicore team... eh? WE're not as well-rounded as the WSox, but we have the best hitter in baseball and one of the best Aces too. And Scott Rolen and solid defense. That's not a mediocre nucleus.
I know it's an intangible, but we got a lot younger between last year and this year. Although most people now are wanting take backs on the Mulder/Haren trade, we made good moves in letting go of Sanders, Morris, Grudz and not encouraging Walker to stick around. Encarnacion isn't a huge deal for us, but he's serviceable. SPing hasn't been a huge cornerstone for us for several years , I see no difference, now other than the let down we thought we were getting in Mulder.
I think we will pick up someone soon, but I would bet more on it being a bat than an arm.
I've also heard Torii Hunter wants out and so does Luis Gonzalez.
Posted by: Ryan at June 28, 2006 04:14 PMI asked Leach at the Cardinal website why Reyes batted in the fifth---made the third out---and then Wainwright took over in the sixth last night. Let me hear if you disagree---here's his response:
Basically, he didn't want to use a left-hander against Sabathia, he had no real right-handed pinch-hit options (Bennett was unavailable) and he didn't feel it made sense to use one of the two switch-hitters in a situation with two out and nobody on. Reyes is actually a good-hitting pitcher, besides.
I thought it was odd at the time, but when I looked over the options, I understood the reasoning.
Posted by: Greg K at June 28, 2006 05:30 PMPlease God, let it not be Hunter or Gonzo. Not that I have any problems with them as people, I just think they're two of the more overrated players in the game right now. Smoltz would be an excellent pickup, but who do we trade? Wainwright? Reyes? That doesn't improve us a WHOLE lot, especially past this year. But Tony's always righted the ship, save 2003, and this team is better than that one (i.e., Ponson > Simontacchi). So I'm confident we'll be able to stay far enough ahead and get a big acquisition around the deadline in order to make things work out.
Posted by: MO Boiler at June 28, 2006 05:32 PMI don't think we trade pitchers for pitchers. I think we are going to trade position players. Despite last night's goof, So has some value and would be a starter on most teams. There are other utility players in the same category, and some other position players at Memphis.
Posted by: Greg K at June 29, 2006 08:22 AMNow that's more like it.
You guys writing, discussing the true ins and outs of the team, and look what happened last night. Good work.
Posted by: Kyle at June 29, 2006 09:00 AMI can't believe anyone would take on So. He is cheap, but he's a 4th outfielder at best, and probably would contribute the most here. J-Rod might be valuable as well but I would hate to give him up unless there was a guarantee Larry Bigbie would be healthy. Duncan perhaps? Let's not trade another Daric Barton, either.
Posted by: MO Boiler at June 29, 2006 07:13 PMI think it's a good, maybe even great core, Ryan. But the supporting cast is pretty thin. Edmonds' decline looks real to me and I've got no idea who the #3 starter is.
Len, I've read enough of your stuff at BTF that I can't let you off with a plea of lack of baseball knowledge!
Posted by: Rob at June 29, 2006 08:08 PM