As you've probably heard, the Cardinals have made a move to bolster a struggling pitching staff, trading outfield prospect Terry Evans to the Angels for Jeff Weaver. I'm old enough to remember another Weaver riding to town to save the day. Let's hope this one isn't quite as preposterous. Here's a breakdown:

WHAT THEY GAVE UP: Terry Evans coming into the 2006 season had a 697 career OPS in four seasons on the farm. He was 24 in A-ball, drafted in the 47th round and absent from Baseball America's Prospect Handbook. This year he's gone bonkers, posting a 950 OPS across two levels. He's also set a career best for stolen bases, nabbing 26 in 28 tries in 2006. The light came on, to put it mildly.

WHAT THEY GOT: The Yahoo news link starts thusly:

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim actually found a taker for Jeff Weaver.

ZiPS projected a 4.18 ERA for Weaver, and instead it sits at a lofty 6.29. In theory the league and park switch would cut the projected ERA down by a quarter of a run, which is to say Weaver was supposed to be almost exactly a 4.00 ERA kind of guy. You can't sugarcoat a 6.29 ERA, but the better projection stats at the Hardball Times are much more optimistic, with an xFIP of 4.62. In other words, it's possible Weaver's biggest problem in 2006 has been simple bad luck with homers and balls in play.

WHAT TO HOPE THE CARDINALS ARE THINKING: Both sides of the trade are a simple bet on regression to the mean. I don't know of any health issues with Weaver and I'm a numbers guy, so I like this bet. Sidney Ponson has managed to get by (relatively speaking) to this point with a 4.82 ERA as a starter, but you didn't have to be a superscout or Voros McCracken to hear the robot yelling "Danger Will Robinson Danger." Ponson is the obvious man to kick out of the rotation, based on innings pitched if nothing else. I'm ambivalent to the idea of moving him to the pen.

WHAT TO FEAR THE CARDINALS ARE THINKING: Rookies don't belong in a contending rotation!

OTHER: Jeff Weaver is the Juan Encarnacion of pitchers. He is guaranteed to drive Cardinals fans nuts even if he's reasonably effective. In a completely different vein, who knows what will happen when (if?) Mulder returns.

It's been four years since Weaver looked like a star, so I don't see much upside here. In fact this feels like a Sterling Hitchcock redux. Still, with the rotation struggling like it is -- that air raid siren in Atlanta is damn annoying -- and assuming the Cardinals don't do something silly with the pitching staff, this is a can't-lose trade. A nice mediocre pitcher for a second tier prospect is almost too good to be true.