While I don't like the Molina stuff, one stat from THT to which I cannot object is the projection of 85 wins against a neutral schedule. BPro's analysis of the Cardinals to this point isn't even that kind. The best numbers say the Cardinals are a mediocre club, and the machinery to build a numerical counter-argument isn't stable.

In case you don't buy the numbers, Saturday's game at Wrigley is Exhibit 1A for why you should consider renting them at least. I'll moderate my first impressions ("freaking pathetic" and "freaking disgrace"), and say that Saturday's effort was a different kind of game that sometimes happens upon a mediocre club. My view of the 2005 and 2006 squad has evolved this weekend, as it dawned on me that the difference from last year is that this group knows it is mediocre while last year's did not. It's tough to maintain your focus and drive when you think the end of the road is an ignominious defeat at the hands of the Mets or Tigers. It's probably at its toughest in a day game at that charming dump, with a heat index around 100, and you're facing a Hall of Fame pitcher who's getting funky movement (yeah, that's an allegation).

Tony LaRussa had Albert Pujols hit-and-run on Saturday. The results were incredibly ugly -- Pujols popped out to right and So Taguchi forgot to re-touch 2b when returning -- and the idea of telling Albert Pujols when he should swing the bat is dubious. Of course LaRussa isn't just interested in the raw mathematical value of the h-n-r. He's trying to shake things up, establish some aggressiveness or, as they say in basketball, force the tempo. Jocketty finds himself in a similar position, in need of doing something to re-establish a commitment to winning. I'm not the person to make an argument for either act -- I'd bet LaRussa was overreacting to the "Pujols can't hit the Cubs" headlines -- but if the Cardinals don't want to get their 2006 lunch taken from them by a hungrier team, either in the Central or in the playoffs, then they really need to do something in the next couple of days. Failing that, the only other magic feather that could get this team flying in October is Mark Mulder. He's got one last shot at redemption.