Ronnie's Specter
« Dog Day Afternoon | Main | Break out the "Sosa Cork Company" shirts! »Anything that pushes Aaron Miles closer to Memphis is a step in the right direction, assuming you don't live in western Tennessee. Rather than a strict evaluation of the trade, consider the Luna Narrative for a moment.
Going back to the 2004-2005 winter, the Cardinals seemed reluctant to make much of a push for an everyday 2b. Maybe it was because they were waiting out the market or maybe they had some Robbie Alomar-related internal discord or just maybe they were trying to find a way to get Hector Luna eased into the role. Whatever the case, they signed Grudzielanek to a one year deal, and when it became clear Grudz could handle the job, Luna was sent to AAA where he could play every day. Luna was terrible at Memphis and strangely he was recalled, and even more strangly played well in the majors. The Cardinals made no attempt to re-sign Grudz this past winter, instead taking a gamble on the oft-injured Junior Spivey. They also found Aaron Miles in the bag of balls traded by the Rockies for Ray King. Again, I sense reluctance, Captain, and this certainly doesn't seem like a long-term plan. When Spivey was ineffective in spring training, he quickly was dispatched to AAA. Luna also struggled in March, leaving plenty of outs for Aaron Miles's replacement level bat to devour, apparently because Miles is a better defender than the much more gifted Luna. When he played, Luna did manage a nice OPS, perhaps due to LaRussa's Juan Valdez-like picking of the best at-bats for Luna.
Even if the Cardinals weren't intending to hand the starting job to Luna, they gave him some golden opportunities to seize it from them. Yet for whatever reason it didn't happen. Luna's 26, in his 8th season as a professional, so he's running out of time to develop his skills. PECOTA and ZiPS reflected his pre-2006 work with projected OPSs around 670; mix in this year's actual work and he's not going to be a star. He probably will struggle to be average with the bat going forward, and if I'm an Indians fan, I'm worried that he's headed down the Abraham Nuñez or even Craig Paquette career path.
Even with an optimistic appraisal of Luna, it all boils down to the Cardinals needing stars, or at the very least, good ballplayers, and I don't see how Luna is either. Belliard does look to be a good one, even if it's for only two months, and he brings with him the magical power to force LaRussa's latest scrappy middle infielder to the bench. Luna's biggest selling point was his cost, and frankly saving a couple hundred thousand bucks on a backup (or yielding a few extra points of OPS over John Nelson as a backup) isn't all that important to me. We can do our Billy Beane impression and try to whittle out an extra game or two over the course of the season with the Marco Scutaros, but the guys who win flags are the Pujolses, the Edmondses, the Rolens, the Carpenters and the Mulders. Today's trade doesn't affect this much one way or the other.
That brings me to the bigger news of the day: The Yankees picked up Bobby Abreu and Corey Lidle for the googaws in Dan Szymborski's trunk. I had assumed the Phillies would demand some talent in exchange for Abreu and, unless googaw has an unexpected meaning, that was not the case. Apparently the Phils had to toss in Lidle, who would be the Cardinals second-best starter, to get the Yankees to absorb the Abreu contract. Now Abreu is a star, and he's the kind of player that Uncle Walt's managed to pick up in the past. There are three possibilities here:
(1) The Cardinals think Abreu's loss of power makes him the Mark Mulder of outfielders.
(2) The Cardinals think more highly of Duncan than they should, killing their interest in Abreu.
(3) The Cardinals were too cheap.
The first choice would be OK and the second is defensible. The third though... well, the Cardinals aren't winning any free agent battles for top talent, and they don't have much on the farm that looks headed for stardom or that could serve as trading chips. If the Cardinals are serious about winning and if they think highly of Abreu, then this was a trade they had to find a way to make. Don't ask me what combination of money and second-tier prospects turn the trick. I just think there aren't any other venues for talent-infusion.
On the other end of the scale, it appears Aaron Miles will be the backup shortstop for now. Miles has one more inning (plus one more error) of major league experience at shortstop than Albert Pujols. Scanning through a few old minor stats books, best as I can tell Miles came up as a second baseman and rarely, if ever, played at short. As far as professional experience is concerned, So Taguchi may well be the leader in the pack. Of course that was seven-plus years ago. Jose Oquendo will be a busy man the next few weeks.
Posted by Rob at July 30, 2006 10:40 PMI had the same reactions today. The Belliard trade is good, even if the Cards can't resign him (which they shouldn't at his current 4 million) he helps down the stretch and into the playoffs. Luna is a replacement level guy now and will end up as a solid pinch hitter and spot starter (Eduardo Perez with middle infield "skills".) Hopefully, the Cards can manage to replace him.
Also, when I saw the Abreu deal it thought that the Cards could have come up with those prospects. The key to the deal and the part that maybe Walt couldn't come up with was paying Abreu an extra 1.5 million to waive his no trade clause AND not lock in his option year. Paying Abreu next year would have been tough for the Cards, but paying him again in 2008 could have meant locking up way too much money in three position players. Now the owners have no excuse to not go after a big name free agent this offseason (Carlos Lee? Soriano? Buehrle?)
Posted by: Bob at July 30, 2006 11:31 PMI *AM* in Western Tennessee and I don't have a problem with getting Miles pushed this direction.
Sad as it is, he'd probably be the Redbirds' third-best position player.
Posted by: Whopperman at July 31, 2006 03:49 PMMemphis has a holy ####-kind of awful team. I'm wondering if Memphis will start looking for another major league team.
Posted by: Rob at July 31, 2006 08:25 PMNot for another year or two -- it makes too much sense otherwise. But hopefully it'll wake the Cardinals up to the reality that they should at least try to put a respectable team on the field here. It's affecting attendance -- only 8k last night...last year, most of the Monday games were 9k or above.
Last night was a real beauty of a game -- walked 9 batters, committed three errors, plus another two plays that should have been made but weren't errors, and they stranded 14 runners.
The pitching's been ok after the first month or so, but there is *NO* hitting and surprisingly little fielding for such a collection of non-hitters. With Brian Daubach on the DL, I think Timo Perez might be the best overall hitter on this team. Schumaker doesn't have any power, Nelson doesn't have any average...
Posted by: Whopperman at August 1, 2006 08:47 AMHey Whopperman... How did Schumaker's second error on the season go down last night? All's I know is (Throwing, 2).
How did Tank look? Ten strikeouts is pretty slick, even in such a crap sandwich of a game.
Posted by: Liam at August 1, 2006 10:52 AMWhopperman, what the hell is wrong with Bo Hart? He hasn't hit worth crap since joining the Birds. At least in Colorado Springs he had a halfway decent BA. His BA is worse than Spivey's since joining the club. Is he hurt? How's his attitude? At this rate he's about a week from working full-time at Nordstrom again.
Posted by: TLR at August 2, 2006 02:20 PM