Bernie Miklasz has a column up on the Duncan/Encarnacion at-bat on Saturday. This gets to the heart of what I've been contemplating all summer long. "Stats versus instincts" miscasts the discussion; really what we're talking about here is "good stats versus bad stats". Even if he didn't quantify Duncan's recent performance, the argument for Duncan batting in the ninth was based on his very recent numbers, and once it becomes a numbers debate, then Miklasz has to play by the stats geeks' rules.

That said, as a stat guy my impression of the decision changed on one pitch. Ohman started Encarnacion off with a fastball that looked to be a few inches outside, and Encarnacion's response was to open up his hips and try to yank the ball. Lucky for him he just got the top of the ball (not so lucky for him was that he kept topping the ball throughout the at-bat), because if he had put it in play, it probably would've been a 6-4-3. Encarnacion demonstrated all the awareness of an untrained walrus in that at-bat, and I suppose that's not a surprise.

As for real baseball discussion, as opposed to meta stuff, after this weekend I'm worried about the starting rotation. Um, actually what I mean is that I'm worried specifically about its stamina. Marquis could manage only five innings on Friday, Suppan looked like the pitching equivalent to a punch-drunk prizefighter by the fourth inning, and Carpenter was pushed to 114 pitches. This isn't a good Cubs lineup, especially with Barrett out Saturday and Sunday, so it's not getting easier. Even though the AAA squad is dreadful, Anthony Reyes, Chris Narveson, Brian Falkenborg, Josh Kinney and Brad Thompson all could eat some innings in September. Each is already on the 40-man roster. Generally I've refrained from attacking the ownership as cheap -- $95 million in the NL Central should've been more than adequate this year -- but if all five of those guys aren't on the roster in eleven days, then my mind may be changed.