20 days ago in this space (Marquis de Sad), I opined that a .500 record the rest of the way should be enough for our Birds to win the NL Central. When I wrote that, I hoped it was a worst-case scenario. It's looking more like .500 is the best we can hope for. Sorry if that's gloom and doom, I'm tryin' to keep it real here.

After games of August 8th:

NL Central    W   L   GB
St. Louis    61  51   --
Cincinnnati  58  55  3.5

After games of August 28th:

NL Central    W   L   GB
St. Louis    69  60   --
Cincinnnati  67  65  3.5

Not much has changed, as you can see. In those 20 days, the Cardinals went 8-9; the Reds went 9-10, preserving the status quo. With 33 games to go for our team, I still believe a 17-16 finish wins the division, especially since the Reds have to go 20-10 to top that. (Anyone else think it's a little odd that the Cardinals have 3 more games remaining than the Reds do at this point? I did a quick scan of the first half schedule -- I don't think the 'Birds had any rainouts, home or road. I assume it's just a quirk of the 16-team, 3-division schedule, but with our pitching staff, we could sure use the extra off days. The Cardinals have one in September, the Reds have four.)

Phil Rogers' article at ESPN.com highlights another reason why the Cardinals should win the division -- their next 26(?!?!?!?!?) games are against teams with losing records, and the team who ends that streak, the Padres, could be under .500 by the time they come to Busch III.

So what are the holes in Phil's assertion? A hot Marlins team (8 Ws in a row) still in the wild card chase, and a Pirates team that swept the Cardinals just three weekends ago. Favorable stuff? Only 14 of the remaining 33 are on the road (Cards are 38-24 at home). 7 games with Houston (Cardinals hold a 5-4 edge in 2006) and 7 games with Milwaukee (Cardinals edge 6-3) are a set of games where I'm expecting an even split, 7-7.

This has been a strange season. Not quite 2003-strange, but strange. To make the playoffs will still be more of an accomplishment than 22 other teams will be able to claim, but anything after that, in my view, is gravy.

Dan (TSF)