(AP - credit in more ways than one)

The Streak is finally over. Albert made sure of that. However, the Houston Astros seem to have forgotten how to lose - they won their ninth game in a row this afternoon in Pittsburgh - so the division lead remains at two games in the loss column (one overall), and the magic number remains at four.

Can the Cardinals hang on to the division lead? Sure, here's some reasons why. And in case you forgot about them, here's some reasons why they won't.

WHY THE CARDINALS WILL WIN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

1) Despite all the ugliness, they're still in first place. Yes, it's true. The sky has not fallen completely in. The Cards are in the position of power, and after last night had an 87% chance of winning the division. Because of that, even if the Cards split the series against the Brewers, Houston still has to win two of three in Atlanta to force the Cards to play the Giants in a makeup game - which the Cards would have to lose in order to cause the one-game playoff for the division title.

2) Their last four games are at Busch Stadium. Say what you will about the Padres series, the Cardinals' home record still stands as the second-best in the National League at 47-29 (.618). Conversely, their main remaining opponent, the Brewers, have posted the second-worst road record in the NL at 25-52 (.325) - and are 2-4 in Busch in 2006. Those rather simple numbers add up to a pretty huge advantage going into that series. And, if you're wondering, the Giants are 33-47 (.413) on the road this season.

3) Their best two pitchers of late close out the final series. Despite some ugly performances against the Padres, Jeff Suppan and Chris Carpenter have been far and away the Cards' best starters in the second half. Both have posted ERAs in the 3.00-or-below range since the break, while no other Cards starter has an ERA under 5.00. If they can steal a game from Weaver or Marquis in the first two games, it puts them in position to win the series and force Houston to sweep to even remotely have a chance.

4) Revenge. Believe it or not, after not winning a playoff series in their first 42 seasons, the Houston Astros eliminated the Atlanta Braves in the postseason not once, but twice in the past two years. Despite being eliminated about two weeks prior, the Braves have destroyed the Mets in the first two games at Turner Field this week, and have scored 43 runs in their past four games. With the Braves hosting the final chapter of the Astros' miracle run at the Central Division crown, I'm sure Smoltz & the Joneses would like nothing better than to get a little revenge and knock the Astros out of the playoff race themselves.

WHY THE CARDINALS WILL NOT WIN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

1) The Houston Astros cannot be stopped. It's hard to imagine the Astros losing right now, especially not tommorow with Roger Clemens going to the mound. At 44, Clemens has been one of the best starting pitchers in the league over the second half of the season. The dominance of Clemens and Roy Oswalt are givens, but they've even managed to win games started by the likes of Matt Albers and Jason Hirsh during their nine-game winning streak. Yikes. Albers starts Saturday against Lance Cormier, in what will almost surely be the biggest game of his career, and Andy Pettitte, solid once again in 2006, starts on Sunday versus John Smoltz.

2) Chris Carpenter is gassed, and Jason Marquis is terrible. Carpenter's last two outings: 122 pitches, 6 ER (4 in last inning); 106 pitches, 6 ER (4 in last inning). He's been a workhorse the past two seasons, both of which have surpassed his pre-Cardinal career high in innings pitched. Supposedly his velocity has been decreasing late in games, he's had issues with cramps... perhaps he's beginning to wear down a little bit. Hopefully his start on Sunday will be different, but he's only had one rather uninspiring outing against the Brewers this season. Marquis, on the other hand, has posted an ERA of 6.08 over the past month, which ironically hasn't raised his season ERA much at all since it was so awful to begin with. Yet, he's starting tonight against the Brewers. That won't kill the momentum of last night's win, will it?

3) The Astros would host the one-game playoff. Houston has a 44-37 (.543) record at home, and the Cardinals have a 34-47 (.420) record on the road, including 3-7 in Minute Maid Park. The pitching matchup for this game? Likely Roy Oswalt for the 'Stros against... well, Jason Marquis would be next in line if this game were to happen, but I can't imagine La Russa would start Marquis in a game like this. Possibly Carpenter could be pushed back two days if the situation called for it. Either way, this game doesn't look like a good situation for the Cards, and it would be much in their best interest to avoid it.

So, at this point, it could go either way - although as I write this, the Cardinals are off to a poor start in the first game against the Brewers, trailing 4-0 in the second inning. A one-half game lead with three games to play would be excruciatingly close for a team that had the division all but wrapped up nine days ago. Provided it doesn't appear to be a waste of my time, I'll be back this weekend with an update and a perhaps-a-bit-optimistic look at what might happen if the Cardinals do make the playoffs.