83-78.

After 205 wins combined in 2004-05, the Cardinals regressed to their worst record in seven years in 2006 - Tony La Russa's eighth best regular-season performance out of his eleven seasons at the helm. However, thanks to their good fortune of playing in one of the worst divisions in recent memory, they're in the playoffs. Can they actually do anything, at least within the National League portion of the bracket? Well, as TBW's most optimistic contributor, I think so. However, just as I took a look at their chances over the last weekend of the season with the Astros surging, I'm going take a look at both the bad and the good when I dissect the Cards' prospects this week against the Padres and beyond.

Yes, I'm doing bad ahead of good this time. But this time, the former is much more likely than the latter. It is recommended that you skip the next few paragraphs if you have a weak stomach. I'll be short but sweet with the positives when I come to them, but they're reason enough for me to believe in the team going into the playoffs.

WHY THE ST. LOUIS CARDINALS WILL NOT WIN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT

1) Accentuating the negatives.

As stated above, the Cardinals have struggled mightily since the end of July. In their last 61 games, they are 25-36 (.410). National, local, and internet media outlets are all over the team. Jason Marquis, Aaron Miles, Jeff Weaver, and Juan Encarnacion have played key roles throughout the season. Their staff ERA is 4.54, 9th in the National League (worst among playoff teams). Their starters' ERA is even worse at 4.79, 12th in the league (also worst among playoff teams). Their hitters have drawn the 9th most walks in the league (once again, worst among playoff teams). Their confidence is low after their whopping nine-game losing streak that took place in the last two weeks of the regular season. Shall I carry on?

2) Carp, Soup, and pray for rain?

The Cardinals' likely pitching matchups for Round 1:

Game 1 (Tue): Chris Carpenter vs. Jake Peavy
Game 2 (Thu): Jeff Suppan vs. Chris Young
Game 3 (Sat): Jeff Weaver (?) vs. Woody Williams (or David Wells?)
Game 4 (Sun): Carpenter vs. Peavy
Game 5 (Mon): ? vs ?

With off days on Wednesday and Friday this week, the Cards will be fortunate to get their ace Carpenter to pitch twice in the first four games, most importantly in Game 4 at home. Suppan struggled mightily in his two starts against San Diego this year, but had a brilliant second half to finish his third consecutive solid season for the Cards. Weaver pitched well this year in his only start in 2006 against the Padres, albeit as an Angel, and put together a decent last month. However, a pretty big hole behind Weaver exists, and I'm not sure the Cards can get by with just a three-man rotation for much of the playoffs, not to mention the fact that Jeff Weaver is still Jeff Weaver. Options for a fourth starter include:

Jason Marquis: 194 1/3 IP, 6.02 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 4.45 K/9
Anthony Reyes: 85 1/3 IP, 5.06 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 7.59 K/9 (plus 84/2.57/0.96/8.79 in AAA)
Uh... yeah, that's it.

Admittedly, I'm probably one of the few Jason Marquis fans left among Cardinal Nation. When he pitches well, it's more fun for me to watch than even a Carpenter gem. I would love nothing more than to see Jason get a shot at redemption in the playoffs, and pitch out of his mind for a game or two. However, I just don't see that happening - see the link below - but if he does pitch, Marquis is extremely unlikely to perform well. He hasn't had a single month with an ERA under 4.50, and it's gotten worse every month since July, which probably explains his 3-10 record since the All-Star break. A Jason Marquis start at this point would pretty much doom the Cards.

That said, Anthony Reyes probably would be the fourth starter, if necessary. Reyes complained of a tired arm in September and was skipped in the rotation, only to be thrown on three days rest on the last day of the season. I honestly have no idea what to expect from Reyes, although he does have a quality start against the Padres to speak of, in one of the bigger games of the season. I'm personally optimistic if Reyes makes a start - after all, he'd be on plenty of rest, and his last two starts on greater than normal rest were both solid - but it's still awfully dangerous to be starting a rookie in a postseason elimination game.

3. You can't win if you don't score.

The Cards' offense showed how one-dimensional it can be during the month of September, when they scored only the ninth-most runs in the National League despite hitting the third-most home runs (36). The culprit? The NL's 5th-worst on-base percentage, driven by the 4th-worst batting average for the month. While this slump might be based mostly on bad luck (their strikeout and walk rates are both closer to the middle of the pack), the offense does need to get it going in order for the Cards to have October success. The addition of a healthy David Eckstein (who has hit well since his return), in addition to some sort of positive contribution from James Patrick Edmonds, should be a start. But the Yadier Molinas, Ronnie Belliards, Juan Encarnacions, and Scott Rolens of the world (each had a .705 OPS or worse in September) need to hit, or else it will be a quick and ugly exit this week.

WHY THE ST. LOUIS CARDINALS WILL WIN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT

1) Who else is going to do it?

Seriously, the NL is butt ugly. Three of the four playoff teams finished with 88 victories or fewer, and even the 97-win Mets limped to the finish at 10-13 in their last 23 games. With Pedro Martinez done until next July and various others nursing injuries, the Mets certainly don't appear as unbeatable to the rest of the league as they did a month and a half ago. The Padres clearly have the best pitching staff of the bunch - grizzled David Wells is likely the fourth starter, behind Peavy, Young, and Woody Williams. The Mets have arguably the best lineup, with a murderer's row of Reyes-Lo Duca-Beltran-Delgado-Wright-Floyd. The Dodgers are a nice story, with young guys like Andre Ethier, Takashi Saito, and Russell Martin making solid contributions, and Greg Maddux and Nomar Garciaparra enjoying quality seasons in the twilight of their careers. But the Cards have Pujols, and that has proven that can win a few games by itself.

2) Weeding out the ugly.

Jason Isringhausen, and his ten blown saves? Gone. Mark Mulder, and his 7.14 ERA? Gone. Jason Marquis, and his nearly 200 innings of 6.02 ERA? Likely done. So, what's left? Perhaps a big improvement, albeit an unproven one, at closer in Adam Wainwright. A decent third starter in Jeff Weaver. And Marquis' replacement fifth starter is thankfully not necessary in the playoffs. So, the Cardinals have likely added by subtraction.

3) The 2000 New York Yankees.

After beating the Blue Jays behind Roger Clemens on September 13, 2000, the Yankees opened up a nine-game lead over the Red Sox in the AL East. They were the two-time defending World Series champs, and were coasting into the playoffs. Two and a half weeks later, they were the laughingstock of baseball. Why, you ask? They closed the regular season with a 3-15 stretch, including losses in the final seven games, to finish at 87-74 overall - and were lucky Boston's and Toronto's poor play kept them from blowing the division lead. After losing the first game at Oakland, however, the Yanks won 11 of 15 against the A's, Mariners, and Mets to improbably take their third straight championship - giving them the fewest wins for a World Series winner since the '87 Twins, who we all know so well.

There's few similarities between the 2006 Cards and the 2000 Yankees - the Yanks' offense was fairly consistent, not relying on a Pujols to lift them in their times of need. Mariano Rivera was unbeatable at the end of games, unlike Jason Isringhausen. The Yankees' second two starters (Pettite/El Duque) put the Cards' (Suppan/Weaver) to shame. I could go on, but I won't, as it's late. The point of this argument: despite a near-collapse at the end of the season, the Cards could very easily regain their focus and play like they were in April and May. The playoffs are a crapshoot; the previous two years, the Cards have been favored but were eliminated by a team with a worse record. Perhaps they can turn the tables on the rest of the league in 2006.

You never know... you never know.