They Were Saving It For October

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(Courtesy AP)

I still haven't quite come down from my high of Thursday night. What an unreal ending to an absolutely unreal game.

It's also hard for me to believe that the Cardinals go right back at it tonight. Detroit's been out of the spotlight so long - after all, they finished off their sweep of the A's a week ago before the Cards even started Game 3 - it's made the postseason that much more disjointed. But they're playing, sure enough, and we'll all be watching.

Detroit's been resting and scouting for a week, and the Cards' pitching is not on a good rotation to start the series tonight. Plus, the Tigers have home field advantage thanks to Phil Garner and Miguel Cabrera. So, can the Cardinals actually win this thing? Let's take a look.

WHY THE CARDINALS WILL NOT WIN THE WORLD SERIES

1) The Tigers are eerily similar to the defending champs.

Many people have compared the 2006 Tigers to the buzzsaw that was the 2005 White Sox, and rightfully so. Both teams only lost one game in the first two rounds of the playoffs combined, both teams had the best record in the league throughout most of the regular season only to give it away during the last month, both featured four starting pitchers who tossed 186 innings with an ERA of under 4.08, both featured eight starting position players with at least 13 HR. Also:

2005 White Sox
OBP - 11th in the AL
HR - 4th in the AL
RS - 9th in the AL
ERA - 1st in the AL
DEFF - 1st in the AL

2006 Tigers
OBP - 12th in the AL
HR - 3rd in the AL
RS - 5th in the AL
ERA - 1st in the AL
DEFF - 1st in the AL

Offenses heavily reliant on the home run and exceptional pitching and defense are the hallmarks of both teams. The White Sox swept an 89-win Astros team in last year's World Series; the Tigers find themselves against an 83-win Cardinals team in this year's. Ouch.

2) The Cardinals have too many holes in their lineup.

Tony La Russa loves his matchups. Thanks to Juan Encarnacion's fairly empty .316 BA during the regular season against lefthanders, Tony has placed him squarely behind Albert Pujols against lefthanded starters. He's responded with a 4-for-17 performance vs. LHP with only one extra-base hit and zero walks. His line against RHP isn't much better either, giving him a .626 OPS overall for the postseason (he has one more total base than So Taguchi despite 37 more PA). Preston Wilson has managed a .231 OBP batting primarily in front of Pujols. Scott Rolen has struggled with a left shoulder injury and the associated negative publicity and is slugging .250 despite seeing a lot of pitches. For all the talk about Scott Spiezio's ability in the clutch, he's only managed a .227/.292/.455 line. Ronnie Belliard is apparently nothing but a singles hitter. Chris Duncan is 2 for 14. Even David Eckstein is hitting .195/.313/.293. They've had some clutch hits in big spots, but the offense has to get more consistent in order to score against a Tigers staff that is significantly better than the Mets'.

3) Karma.

Tony La Russa historically hasn't been very good in the World Series, posting a 5-12 overall record. Jim Leyland has won it in his only appearance. Leyland, if you didn't know, was La Russa's third-base coach for the White Sox in their early days, scouted for the Cards after leaving Colorado in '99, and remains very good friends with La Russa. They've vowed not to talk about their relationship during the series, but you know Leyland wants to show his old boss what he's learned. He certainly did in June, when the Cards came out of an awful sweep at the hands of the White Sox only to be swept again in Comerica Park.

Oh yeah, and the kiss of death: Bernie Miklasz picked the Cards to win.

WHY THE CARDINALS WILL WIN THE WORLD SERIES

1) The DH.

With the likes of Scott Spiezio, Chris Duncan, and/or Preston Wilson on the bench, the Cards have plenty of offensive depth to offset the extra bat that the Tigers will have at home. In Game 1 at Fenway in 2004, So Taguchi was that guy - he started in LF while Reggie Sanders started at DH - because of the goofy wall at that ballpark. No such worries exist in Comerica, despite its huge outfield, so we'll likely see Wilson start in LF and the lesser defensive outfielders Duncan or Spiezio at DH, depending on matchups. It might not be a terrible move to start Spiezio will at 3B in Game 1 against the power righty Justin Verlander to give Scott Rolen a break, but given the amount of publicity that caused the last time it happened, it likely won't again.

And seriously, who doesn't want to see Nate Robertson (1/14, 1 RBI, 6 K, 1 SH career), Jeremy Bonderman (0/19, 12 K), and Justin Verlander (0/1, 1 SH) bat when we'll see the likes of Jeff Suppan (.195/.241/.223 career), Chris Carpenter (.095/.122/.104) and Jeff Weaver (.206/.231/.249) out there for our side? Yeah, Carp sucks at the plate, but the other two guys are almost like another Yadier Molina (the regular-season version, that is) in the lineup opposite the gaping hole that the Tigers will see.

2) The clutch, and the mojo.

Seriously now, did anyone expect Scott Spiezio, Yadier Molina, Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan, and So Taguchi to be heroes? It's happened once, why can't it happen again? Or maybe a Ronnie Belliard, Preston Wilson, or (gasp) Juan Encarnacion will shine? Especially in a Busch Stadium that will be absolutely insane with joy - no rich New Englanders scalping tickets this time, right? It'll be a little weird after what experiences we've all had at New Busch in its opening season, but I fully expect Cardinal Nation to rock the house. Anything less would be disappointing.

3) The Cards have nothing to lose, and they're playing like it.

Back when we all watched the first game against the Padres, you could tell something was up. The Cards were playing with an energy we hadn't seen for most of the season - or at least, not since April when Albert Pujols was playing God - and good things were starting to happen. Then, in Game 2 against the Mets, it really took shape - Carp struggled, the Mets took the lead again and again, but the Cardinals kept... coming... back. You knew then that you weren't watching wasn't the same team that went 22-28 in their last 50 games and nearly blew the division. This team was not playing under pressure like the Cardinal teams of the last two years, both of whom were favored to win it all. This Cardinal team was loose, having fun, and playing good baseball. Who's to say they won't keep doing that against the Tigers?

To conclude, I woke up this morning to find an advertisement on my computer from AOL Shopping saying "Red is your color. Really." That has to be a good sign. Go Cards.

Posted by MO Boiler at October 21, 2006 02:33 PM
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Insane with joy! No kidding...

You never know the total effect of having a full week off. Obviously, it gives their pitchers a complete chance to recharge, but hwat has it done to their momentum?

Your comments about us having nothing to lose and playing like it are right on and still with us after getting only one day to rest.

I also like that Wainwright has pitched and succeeded in a hugely clutch situation. If it happens again, the kid should feel experienced on the mound.

Detroit's lineup is different than the Mets. THe mets had some pretty big holes deep in their lineup, after Green. THe Tigers don't have the nucleus of power in 3-5, but they have fewer holes deep. Thames and Monroe are sinister. Getting Detroit to swing at borderline early pitches will be key.

And in the playoffs... I'll ALWAYS take clutch over consistency!

Here's to the right hits at the right times!

Posted by: Ryan at October 21, 2006 06:08 PM