I try never to use this website for personal benefit. Right now, however, I have a bit of a dilemma. I'm in a fantasy baseball quasi-keeper league, and I'm coming off a dominant season in which my team had the best regular season record by 2½ games - 1 game per week - in a 22-week season (and, for the record, lost in the finals when several key players went down with injuries). My roster was stacked with guys who I acquired either thanks to luck, great timing, good trading, or a solid draft - and had a few career seasons and a little overachievement mixed in. I'd love to keep the majority of them - in fact, I'm pretty confident I would be the top team in the league next year if I could keep my entire roster. However, I'm only able to keep four players, and I have way too many choices for those four. And I believe I'm only allowed to keep one of the four after 2007, or perhaps it's 2008, I'm not sure which. So, I'm soliciting the advice of fellow fantasy baseballers all over Cardinal Nation: help a brother out! And perhaps, if you're considering keeping or drafting any of these guys, you could find my analysis useful. (Ha!) Hard data is after the jump...

Anyway, here's my options for keepers in no particular order, with age for the 2007 season, 2006 stats, and comments shown for each. The league is a standard 5 & 5 with a few extra position players (2 extra IF, 2 extra OF in addition to the regular lineup + Util) and pitchers (3 SP total, 2 RP total, 3 extra P) on each roster. And we do a standard draft, not the auction format, if that makes a difference.

Ryan Howard (1B Phi) - age 27 - .313 AVG/104 R/58 HR/149 RBI/0 SB
This one's pretty much a no-brainer, even if he declines a little in the HR numbers. The Phillies' lineup is stacked, and he'll be hungry if he doesn't get paid this winter. Unless, of course, he goes into Operation Shutdown or something. Howard was my fifth round pick in '06, and he'd be a sure first rounder this year if he were to be drafted.

Chris Carpenter (SP StL) - age 32 - 221.2 IP/15 W/0 SV/184 K/3.09 ERA/1.07 WHIP
I wasn't immediately sold on keeping Carp after the season ended; however, as time has progressed I'm more convinced I should. I acquired Carp and Grady Sizemore in a trade for my first-round pick, Miguel Cabrera (plus flameouts Jonny Gomes and Javy Lopez). Despite a probable decline and barring any injury, he should be a top-ten pitcher and I'd say at worst a second-round pick in most drafts. And despite being by far the oldest player I'm considering keeping, his health is probably a safer bet than some of the younger pitchers on my roster.

Scott Kazmir (SP TB) - age 23 - 144.2/10/0/163/3.24/1.27
When K is for Kazmir was racking up the double-digit K games in June and July, I figured keeping him would be a given. He's still early 20's and has struck out more than a batter per inning in his major league career and has posted a career ERA of 3.73 despite a walk rate above 4 per 9 IP. However, a shoulder injury shut him down for the season in late August after showing few signs of trouble all year long. He was a 17th round pick for me in 2006, however with a breakout season that number should drastically change for the better. His health is a concern, and I haven't heard any news lately regarding his status for 2007, but if I remember correctly it seemed there was nothing prohibiting him from pitching this coming season. Unlike, of course...

Francisco Liriano (SP/RP Min) - age 23 - 121.0/12/1/144/2.16/1.00
Heartbreak. After my team was carried by F-Bomb through July and August, to hear he was going on the DL with elbow pain was disturbing. I was thrilled to hear about a week later, in mid-September, that he would be coming back on national TV against the A's. Sure enough, I planned my evening to watch, since I was in the league semifinals at the time. It was beautiful for two innings, and then... my fantasy season flashed before my eyes. Tommy John surgery was a (not-so-immediate) result, and Liriano will not pitch in 2007. Still, I'm considering keeping him and putting him on the DL the entire season in a gamble that he'll be Santanaesque in 2008. I could probably afford the DL slot. However, it's probable that I let him go and see if I can grab him before someone else does in the later rounds of the draft. Liriano was my 19th-round pick in 2006 as a bit of an unknown commodity; who knows where he'd go this year given the injury.

Chase Utley (2B Phi) - age 28 - .309/131/32/102/15
Chase is an offensive juggernaut at a position where those are scarce. His 2005 and 2006 numbers are remarkably similar, so it's hard to believe that he'll decline in 2008 while still in his late twenties. And hitting in front of Ryan Howard will do wonders for your runs scored. However, given the human wrecking ball that's playing about 150 feet away on the field, injury is always a risk for Utley. Still, it's hard to convince myself not to keep this guy. He was my third-round pick in 2006; he should go slightly higher this year as easily the best 2B in the league now that Jose Reyes has moved to SS.

Grady Sizemore (CF Cle) - age 25 - .290/134/28/76/22
Sizemore is a very, very good player. But I'm thinking that he's a much more valuable player to the Cleveland Indians than he is to my 5 & 5 fantasy team. Why? A jaw-dropping 53 doubles and 11 triples might as well be wimpy little singles. Still, I can't complain about how I acquired him (the aforementioned trade). He's probably going to end up a top-ten fantasy OF in 2007 when all's said and done (despite not being drafted as such most places) thanks to a runs scored total that likely won't decline much, if any in a stacked Indians lineup. A guy who does that and who should only get better in other statistics as he enters his prime puts up a very strong case. If I keep an outfielder, it almost has to be Grady.

Brett Myers (SP Phi) - age 27 - 198.0/12/0/189/3.91/1.30
Myers struggled at times this year both on and off the mound and was victimized by a killer hitter's park, but still managed a K rate of almost a batter an inning while remaining consistently healthy once again. Still an underrated player, he's in his prime at 27.

Matt Holliday (LF Col) - age 27 - .326/119/34/114/10
Yet another age-27 player next year, Holliday put up huge numbers in 2006 despite the anti-Coors Field humidor effect. I was lucky enough to snag him in the 9th round, which should be slightly below where he's drafted this year. However, my gut tells me that, despite it being his age-27 season, Holliday's 2007 won't be as good as his '06. Why? First off, his career in the minors wasn't particularly spectacular. Between 2000-2003, Holliday never slugged above .400. Alright, I could understand if a player suddenly "got it" in terms of power at some point in his career (see Finley, Steve). So, throw that out. Still, Holliday drew only 47 walks in 2006 - which, mind you, was his career high. I lean towards the sabermetric, even in fantasy baseball where it doesn't really matter, so I have a hard time going after guys who hit for high average and power despite poor walk rates. I'm not saying it can't be done (see Soriano, Alfonso), but I'm a bit skeptical of Holliday heading into 2007.

Vernon Wells (CF Tor) - age 28 - .303/91/32/106/17
Wells again is a good player, but I'm not convinced because of the walk rate. Wells was my 7th round pick in 2006, and I think he'd be about there or maybe slightly higher this year. Still, I think he's a bit overvalued and probably a long shot to be kept. On a different roster, though, he would have a shot.

Jered Weaver (SP LAA) - age 24 - 123.0/11/0/105/2.56/1.03
Cardinal hero Jeff's younger brother didn't put up the unreal K rate of a Liriano, Kazmir, or even Myers, but his 7.68 was pretty darn good, and he did strike out 93 in 77 IP in AAA in '06. He might be a bit of a long shot thanks to the little bit of uncertainty that he can match his stellar rookie year in 2007.

Miguel Tejada (SS Bal) - age 31 - .330/99/24/100/6
Tejada's only 31? Wow. I even consider myself somewhat of a fan of the O's, too, and I thought he was like 35. Still, it's hard to see Miggy do a whole lot better in 2007 than he did in 2006, if at all. His extra-base hit total in 2006 was his lowest since 1999. Given that he's played in the most consecutive games since Cal Ripken's streak, it's likely that he'll wear down in a Ripkenesque fashion over his 30s. (Ripken, while a stellar player throughout his 20s, only posted an OPS+ of 100 or greater three times after he turned 30. His selfish dedication to the streak clearly affected his performance in the second half of his career - acting as a detriment to his team - which is why, to me, he is one of the most overrated players in history. Down from soapbox.) Still, Tejada's a shortstop, and thanks to A-Rod's move to third base, Nomar's move to the DL, and a general lack of depth at the position, Miggy is still a top-five guy there. I got him in the second round in '06; he'll probably be a third- or fourth-rounder in '07. I'm on the fence on this one.

Erik Bedard (SP Bal) - age 28 - 196.1/15/0/171/3.76/1.35
The Canadian lefty had a bit of a breakout 2006, pitching very well at times for a pitching-starved Orioles club. Aside from an ugly May (during which I dropped him and picked him back up), he posted an ERA of 4.15 or better in every other calendar month, highlighted by a 4-0, 1.54, 35 K/9 BB July which came on the heels of a new change-up in his repertoire. This guy can dominate when he's on, but control problems when he starts to nibble can make things pretty ugly sometimes. I got him in the 25th (second-to-last) round in '06, and while he's probably going to go higher in most cases he's still flying under the radar. He's a guy who's highly underrated in my opinion and could be a steal in a later round of a draft - the type who can propel you to a huge season - but I doubt he'll make the cut here.

Javier Vazquez (SP CWS) - age 31 - 202.2/11/0/184/4.84/1.29
Ever since he left Montreal, Vazquez has posted mediocre ERAs despite solid peripherals. I managed to pounce on him on the waiver wire after his disgruntled owner dropped him in early August, and he performed pretty well down the stretch - he racked up 50 K in 35.1 IP in September (four double-digit strikeout games, in which he went 0-3 ironically) with solid ERA and WHIP in both his last two months. He should be the Sox' best starting pitcher in 2007, but unfortunately he's not one of the top 3 pitchers on this squad and will likely not be kept.

Other guys on my roster who I'd love to keep...
...because they should be well worth a roster spot next year:
Adrian Gonzalez (SD 1B) - age 25 - .304/83/24/82/0
(probably a solid backup 1B at worst)
Edwin Encarnacion (Cin 3B) - age 24 - .276/60/15/72/6
(in only 117 G, could be huge in '07)
Rich Hill (ChC SP) - age 27 - 99.1/6/0/90/4.17/1.23
(ridiculous K rates in minors, control and HR rate are biggest flaws)
Josh Willingham (Fla LF) - age 28 - .277/62/26/74/2
(was a steal as a C in '06, but won't retain eligibility - still a decent backup OF)
Bobby Jenks (CWS RP) - age 26 - 69.2/3/41/4.00/1.39
(lots of K and saves if you can stand the high ERA - which should improve)
Chris Ray (Bal RP) - age 25 - 66.0/4/33/2.73/1.09
(K rate decreased, and team won't generate SVOPPs, but very solid young RP)
John Maine (NYM SP) - age 26 - 90.0/6/0/71/3.60/1.13
(good minor league record, should break out in 2007)
JD Drew (Bos CF/RF) - age 31 - .283/84/20/100/2
(I keep holding onto hope that he'll have another year like 2004)

The rest of the roster:
Ryan Garko (Cle 1B) - age 26 - .292/28/7/45/0
Chris Duncan (StL RF/LF) - age 26 - .293/60/22/43/0
Brian Roberts (Bal 2B) - age 29 - .286/85/10/55/36
Boof Bonser (Min SP) - age 25 - 100.1/7/0/84/4.22/1.28
Orlando Hernandez (NYM SP) - age 41ish - 162.1/11/0/164/4.66/1.33
Greg Maddux (SD SP) - age 41 - 210.0/15/0/117/4.20/1.22

That's it. It was a fun ride in 2006 with that roster. Can you believe I actually had Roy Halladay as well, and replaced him with Bonser in the final weeks when it became clear that Halladay would miss his final start or two? And Mark Teahen during his second-half hot streak, dropping him in favor of Garko when he had to have surgery? ...but anyway, I'm leaning towards keeping Howard, Utley, Carpenter, and Kazmir. Unfortunately there are so... many... choices. Feel free to leave any input or analysis you may have in the comments - even questions regarding your team. I'm no professional, but I think I know my way around a fantasy baseball roster as well as the next guy. It's always good to get ideas from multiple sources, at the very least. So, have at it! Let the fantasy forum begin!