Photo courtesy Rick Bowmer, AP

Way back in the early days of The Birdwatch, I took on the challenge of projecting the performance of the Cards' 2005 starting outfield based on their ten most similar players from baseball-reference.com. Those three outfielders were united by the fact that they were all rather old, and faced inevitable statistical declines. This time around, however, I'm going to take a look at three key players to the success of the 2007 Cardinals: Chris Duncan, Anthony Reyes, and Adam Wainwright. Unfortunately, these guys are too new to the majors to have similar players on B-R, so I've resorted to the glory that is PECOTA for their comparables. Yes, PECOTA has their own nifty projections, and I'll take a look at those after I'm done to determine their level of optimism.

So without further ado, let's start this bad boy off by taking a look at Chris Duncan (pictured above), the Cards' probable starting left fielder - after the jump, of course.

A bit about the method to my madness:

PECOTA does things a little differently than Bill James (whose formula B-R.com uses to compute similarity scores). For one, there's nothing in the database that computes similarity scores based on age - it's based on season-by-season progression. So, for example, Duncan's career going into 2007 is deemed to be most similar to Mike Epstein's career going into 1969. Since both Epstein and Duncan were both coming off their age-25 seasons, I consider it a viable comparison. However, Duncan's third-most similar career was Jason Thompson's going into 1980. However, Thompson was coming off his age-24 season going into 1980. Because of the age difference, I don't see Thompson to be as comparable a player as say, Michael Tucker going into 1997. Tucker was Duncan's 12th-most comparable player, but he was also coming off his age-25 season. My point with all of this? Instead of using PECOTA's 10 most comparables overall, I used the 10 highest comparables at the same age as Duncan (and on later projections, Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright). It's a touchy distinction to make, but I feel as though it's relevant for this particular study. Also of note: when I averaged OPS+ among all the players in each group, I just weighted it based on plate appearances - but I didn't really want to go back and look up league averages for 30 different years and weight them all just to have the final product turn out pretty much the same, if not exactly the same. Forgive me, I'm lazy. Anyway, here's the group I ended up with:

Chris Duncan
age 25 (1968): 90 G, 314 PA, .293/.363/.589, 141 OPS+
age 26 (2007): ???

Most Comparable Players In Age-26 Season
1. Mike Epstein (1st overall)
age 25 (1968): 123 G, 448 PA, .234/.338/.366, 117 OPS+
age 26 (1969): 131 G, 500 PA, .278/.414/.551, 175 OPS+
2. Carlos Pena (2nd overall)
age 25 (2003): 131 G, 516 PA, .248/.332/.440, 107 OPS+
age 26 (2004): 142 G, 561 PA, .241/.338/.472, 112 OPS+
3. Eric Anthony (6th overall)
age 25 (1993): 145 G, 539 PA, .249/.319/.397, 94 OPS+
age 26 (1994): 79 G, 288 PA, .237/.297/.412, 80 OPS+
4. Ben Grieve (7th overall)
age 25 (2001): 154 G, 639 PA, .264/.372/.387, 102 OPS+
age 26 (2002): 136 G, 561 PA, .251/.353/.432, 108 OPS+
5. Ryan Klesko (8th overall)
age 25 (1996): 153 G, 602 PA, .282/.364/.530, 127 OPS+
age 26 (1997): 143 G, 522 PA, .261/.334/.490, 111 OPS+
6. Ron Swoboda (9th overall)
age 25 (1969): 109 G, 375 PA, .235/.326/.361, 91 OPS+
age 26 (1970): 115 G, 289 PA, .233/.340/.392, 96 OPS+
7. Lee Thomas (10th overall)
age 25 (1961): 132 G, 345 PA, .285/.353/.491, 114 OPS+
age 26 (1962): 160 G, 439 PA, .290/.355/.467, 123 OPS+
8. Ryan Langerhans (11th overall)
age 25 (2005): 128 G, 373 PA, .267/.348/.426, 99 OPS+
age 26 (2006): 131 G, 369 PA, .241/.350/.378, 90 OPS+
9. Michael Tucker (12th overall)
age 25 (1996): 108 G, 393 PA, .260/.346/.442, 101 OPS+
age 26 (1997): 138 G, 554 PA, .283/.347/.445, 105 OPS+
10. Paul O'Neill (13th overall)
age 25 (1988): 145 G, 533 PA, .252/.306/.414, 102 OPS+
age 26 (1989): 117 G, 480 PA, .276/.346/.446, 123 OPS+

In case you're curious, the 3rd through 5th overall were:
Jason Thompson, 1979-80 (age 24-25)
Willie Aikens, 1979-80 (age 24-25)
Mel Hall, 1985-86 (age 24-25)

Averages:
age 25: 133 G, 432 PA, .259/.341/.429, 106 OPS+ (16 HR, 60 RBI)
age 26: 129 G, 417 PA, .263/.350/.455, 115 OPS+ (18 HR, 65 RBI)
PECOTA weighted mean forecast for Duncan: 452 PA, .273/.356/.488 (20 HR, 65 RBI)

The concensus is, as it should be, a slight improvement from age-25 to age-26. This sample, in fact, made less plate appearances on average in their age-26 seasons, due to factors ranging from injuries to strike years, but produced more raw HR/RBI numbers - most likely thanks to a better lineup spot and increased production.

Of note:
• The biggest gainer on the list was clearly Epstein, posting an oh-so-pretty .278/.414/.551 line for the 2nd-generation Washington Senators in '69, which translates to a 175 OPS+ thanks to a pitcher-friendly era and park effect. I drool a little when I look at his 85/99 BB/K ratio from that season, but playing under Ted Williams and with the likes of Frank "Hondo" Howard might've helped his approach a little bit. Also, he probably benefitted greatly from the increased hitting environment following the Year of the Pitcher in '68; the league average OPS in his parks went up 50 points in '69 from the previous year. If Duncan can put up a .414 OBP batting in the 2-hole ahead of a healthy Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds, the Cards would score a ton of runs despite the Juan Encarnacion-sized hole in the bottom of the order. Unfortunately, I think a year like that is hopelessly optimistic to expect out of him.

• The player who had the most similar season to Duncan's 2006 in his age-25 campaign was probably Klesko - and his percentages dropped across the board the next year. Still, at .261/.334/.490 for the Braves in '97, his 111 OPS+ age-26 season was better than a lot of guys on this list. I wouldn't be too upset if Duncan duplicated those numbers in '07.

• PECOTA is higher on Duncan than the comparable player averages are. In fact, in terms of raw offense, PECOTA even considers him to be the Cardinals' best outfielder in 2007, narrowly outVORPing Jim Edmonds 22.5 to 22.3.

• Playing time is a big factor in projecting what Duncan will do in 2007. Based on his past struggles against left-handed pitching (.204/.250/.429 career) and his liabilities on defense, it's hard to see La Russa playing him against any lefties at all, or late in games during which the Cardinals have a lead. Thus, 500 PA is a bit of a stretch. Even PECOTA's 452 PA projection might not be attained if Chris struggles in April and May - we all know Tony can have a short leash with young hitters not named Pujols. The Cardinals also have a glut of outfielders, with Duncan, Edmonds, Encarnacion, Preston Wilson, So Taguchi, John Rodriguez, and even Scott Spiezio all on the 40-man roster. Barring a trade or long-term injury, all of those guys will have a role and get their plate appearances - which lessens the opportunities for Duncan.

• I was moderately surprised not to see St. Louis native Ryan Howard on this list; he wasn't even in Duncan's top twenty comparables. The major league numbers of the two players are virtually identical through their age-25 campaigns, but upon further review, it appears Howard had much gaudier numbers in AA and AAA, which PECOTA takes into account. The other clear difference: the Phillies traded Jim Thome to make way for Howard to be the full-time starter at first base going into the 2006 season, allowing him to get 700 PA without any major threats from the bench. As mentioned above, Duncan could repeat his 2006 rates and still only get 500 PA thanks to La Russa's obsession with playing the matchups.

In conclusion, I think Chris Duncan is an interesting case. (Of course I can use that cliché, dammit, why else would I write about him?) My personal opinion is that the PECOTA projection will probably be closer - he's a big kid, and I don't see him losing the pop in his bat overnight. True, a few of those home runs might clank off the wall as doubles, but I don't see him slugging below .500 if he keeps the batting average up. I trust he'll see plenty of pitches to hit batting in front of the big boppers (yet another cliché, but it's true), so assuming he remains as selective as he was last year at times, he could probably manage a decent OBP. But I have a feeling that last year's numbers are quite possibly a best-case scenario. Worst case? He bats .200 through April and May and continues to struggle in left field, and sees his playing time decrease to the point that he's just a left-handed power bat off the bench. Still, if I were a betting man (NCAA Tournament pools aside), I'd take the over when it comes to his PECOTA projection. Let the kid play, let's see what he can do.