Before I get into the meat of this post, I have to state that I have never seen Anthony Reyes smile. Not once. Even on his Topps baseball card from last season - a non-action shot, mind you - he looks as stoic as a mannequin. It's almost creepy. He's a great young pitcher and I have no reason to believe he isn't an upstanding guy, but please, Anthony - look like you're having a little bit of fun out there.

That aside, what we saw from him in Game 1 of the World Series in Detroit was beautiful. Just absolutely perfect. It makes me wonder how he only put up a 5.06 ERA in 17 starts in 2006, especially after such a sparkling minor league career. Well, the answer is twofold: walks and home runs. Anthony got tagged for the highest walk and home run rates of his professional career in his major-league portion of 2006. These struggles have been explained by a few different theories: 1) fatigue coming into the second half of a season in which he set a career high in innings, 2) he still continues to struggle with the two-seam fastball the organization continues to insist he throw, and 3) his mechanics are out of whack. Whatever the reason, will the trend continue into 2007? Let's take a look, in the same manner we took a look at Chris Duncan's 2007 projection, after the jump.

Disclaimers on methodology are the same as stated here, except replace "OPS+" and "plate appearances" with "ERA+" and "innings pitched".

Anthony Reyes
age 24 (2006): 17 G (17 GS), 85 1/3 IP, 5.06 ERA (87 ERA+), 1.38 WHIP, 17 HR, 34 BB, 72 K
age 25 (2007): ???

Most Comparable Players In Age-25 Season
1. Bob Sebra (1st overall)
age 24 (1986): 17 G (13 GS), 91 1/3 IP, 3.55 ERA (104 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 9 HR, 25 BB, 66 K
age 25 (1987): 36 G (27 GS), 177 1/3 IP, 4.42 ERA (95 ERA+), 1.42 WHIP, 15 HR, 67 BB, 156 K
2. James Baldwin (2nd overall)
age 24 (1996): 28 G (28 GS), 169 IP, 4.42 ERA (106 ERA+), 1.33 WHIP, 24 HR, 57 BB, 127 K
age 25 (1997): 32 G (32 GS), 200 IP, 5.27 ERA (83 ERA+), 1.44 WHIP, 19 HR, 83 BB, 140 K
3. Tommy Greene (3rd overall)
age 24 (1991): 36 G (27 GS), 207 2/3 IP, 3.38 ERA (109 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 19 HR, 66 BB, 154 K
age 25 (1992): 13 G (12 GS), 64 1/3 IP, 5.32 ERA (66 ERA+), 1.69 WHIP, 5 HR, 34 BB, 39 K
4. Paul Moskau (5th overall)
age 24 (1978): 26 G (25 GS), 145 IP, 3.97 ERA (89 ERA+), 1.35 WHIP, 17 HR, 57 BB, 88 K
age 25 (1979): 21 G (15 GS), 106 1/3 IP, 3.89 ERA (96 ERA+), 1.49 WHIP, 9 HR, 51 BB, 58 K
5. Brett Tomko (6th overall)
age 24 (1997): 22 G (19 GS), 126 IP, 3.43 ERA (125 ERA+), 1.21 WHIP, 14 HR, 47 BB, 95 K
age 25 (1998): 34 G (34 GS), 210 2/3 IP, 4.44 ERA (97 ERA+), 1.24 WHIP, 22 HR, 64 BB, 162 K
6. Paul Rigdon (7th overall)
age 24 (2000): 17 G (16 GS), 87 1/3 IP, 5.15 ERA (89 ERA+), 1.42 WHIP, 18 HR, 35 BB, 63 K
age 25 (2001): 15 G (15 GS), 79 1/3 IP, 5.79 ERA (76 ERA+), 1.66 WHIP, 13 HR, 46 BB, 49 K
7. Albie Lopez (8th overall)
age 24 (1996): 13 G (10 GS), 62 IP, 6.39 ERA (77 ERA+), 1.65 WHIP, 14 HR, 22 BB, 45 K
age 25 (1997): 37 G (6 GS), 76 2/3 IP, 6.93 ERA (68 ERA+), 1.84 WHIP, 11 HR, 40 BB, 63 K
8. Doug Drabek (9th overall)
age 24 (1987): 29 G (28 GS), 176 1/3 IP, 3.88 ERA (106 ERA+), 1.20 WHIP, 22 HR, 46 BB, 120 K
age 25 (1988): 33 G (32 GS), 219 1/3 IP, 3.08 ERA (111 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, 21 HR, 50 BB, 127 K
9. Gil Meche (11th overall)
age 24 (2003): 32 G (32 GS), 186 1/3 IP, 4.59 ERA (97 ERA+), 1.34 WHIP, 30 HR, 63 BB, 130 K
age 25 (2004): 23 G (23 GS), 217 2/3 IP, 5.01 ERA (86 ERA+), 1.46 WHIP, 21 HR, 47 BB, 99 K
10. Eric Rasmussen (13th overall)
age 24 (1976): 43 G (17 GS), 150 1/3 IP, 3.53 ERA (100 ERA+), 1.28 WHIP, 10 HR, 54 BB, 76 K
age 25 (1977): 34 G (34 GS), 233 IP, 3.48 ERA (110 ERA+), 1.23 WHIP, 24 HR, 63 BB, 120 K

In case you're curious, the omitted two were:
4th overall: Ron Schueler, 1973-74 (age 25-26)
10th overall: Ray Washburn, 1963-64 (age 25-26)
12th overall: Don Cardwell, 1960-61 (made 38 starts in '61, too many for accurate comparison)

Averages:
age 24: 26 G (22 GS), 140 IP, 4.07 ERA (102 ERA+), 1.29 WHIP, 6.19 K/9, 1.14 HR/9, 3.03 BB/9, 2.04 K/BB
age 25: 28 G (23 GS), 149 1/3 IP, 4.44 ERA (94 ERA+), 1.38 WHIP, 6.10 K/9, 0.96 HR/9, 3.28 BB/9, 1.86 K/BB
Reyes in 2006 (rate stats included): 17 G (17 GS), 85 1/3 IP, 5.06 ERA (87 ERA+), 7.59 K/9, 1.79 HR/9, 3.59 BB/9, 2.12 K/BB
PECOTA weighted mean forecast for Reyes in 2007: 29 G (29 GS), 168 1/3 IP, 3.81 ERA. 7.54 K/9, 1.18 HR/9, 2.78 BB/9, 2.71 K/BB

Notes:
• The thing that stuck out the most was that the majority of these guys put up worse seasons at age 25 than at age 24. Most increased their workload (at the major league level, at least), but only three of the ten had a better ERA+ at age 25 than at age 24. And those three (Moskau, Drabek, and Rasmussen) all had only modest increases. In terms of won-lost record, this sample fared much worse in their age-25 seasons as well. I didn't include those numbers in the lists above (since these things aren't entirely performance-related), but overall this group posted a record of 88-75 at age 24, while dropping to 78-92 at age 25.

• Not only is this a list of guys who struggled at age 25, there are some ugly names among the more recent guys. Brett Tomko? Albie Lopez? Paul Rigdon? James Baldwin? Gil Meche? Yes, Meche got a huge contract this offseason, but ugh. Lopez was terrible, Rigdon disappeared (more later), Tomko never got any better and became a reliever, like Baldwin, and Meche hasn't had a league-average season since. It's not an inspiring group.

• Nobody on the list really seemed to have a season similar to Reyes' at age 24. Perhaps Rigdon, but his major and minor league K rates were far worse than Reyes', and I don't . None of these guys, actually, put up the K's in the minors or majors quite like Anthony. Makes you wonder why they're comparables. But none of the ones mentioned above who put up a better ERA+ in their age-25 season appear to compare to Reyes. A stud performance like Drabek's would be a nice bar to set, as Anthony has proven to have even better command, but he has to prove he will be more consistent with said command, in addition to his health, at the major league level.

• As stated before, Rigdon is a bit of a mystery. He didn't play in the majors past 2001, and the last news I saw of him in any team's system was his being assigned to the Red Sox's minor league camp in March 2004. He evidently had some, uh, involuntary plastic surgery done back in '01, but that didn't seem like it would've been career-ending. It's spooky seeing a guy end his professional baseball career before the age of 30, especially since he was pretty decent in small doses after he got sent down to the minors. I wonder what happened to him.

• PECOTA has a lot more faith in Anthony than his comparable players have justified. The projection looks for Anthony to keep his K rate slightly below his career level in the major leagues, but more importantly it believes that his career high walk and home run rates from 2006 are fluky based on solid rates from his minor-league days. And that translates to a solid ERA of 3.81. I think we'll all take that, as many are not so bullish on Reyes, but it's nice to know that the computer models are on our side. And unlike Chris Duncan, playing time shouldn't be a huge issue - if he is healthy and remotely effective, he could get to 200 innings if La Russa decides he doesn't have faith in what appears to be a shaky bullpen.

To conclude, I'm less optimistic about Reyes than PECOTA is. And it doesn't have anything to do with the comparables. Anthony pitched 181 1/3 IP total in 2006, far above his previous career high of 140. As linked before, there are concerns about the velocity on his fastball decreasing over the past year, and I am in the camp that if there was a decrease, it was probably fatigue-related. My bold prediction is this: if Anthony can physically handle the workload that will likely be demanded of him in 2007, I see no reason he won't improve on his ERA from 2006. But if he can't, and he is continually thrown to the wolves despite only throwing 88-90 mp on his 4-seam fastball... it could be ugly. So let's hope Anthony throws free and easy this season... and maybe, just maybe, cracks a smile.