Adam Wainwright will long be remembered as the man who threw the final pitch of the 2006 World Series, striking out Brandon Inge for the win in Game 5, a victory for the ages, yadda yadda yadda. That's all well and good, but what's next? Starting games, you say? Does the Cardinal brass really think the kid who turned in arguably the most dominant month of relief pitching in Cardinal history can suddenly become a solid young starter? Well, yeah, they do. More importantly though, are they out of their minds for changing his role after he had such success as a late-inning reliever?

Well, if the former is true, PECOTA agrees with them. And despite the fact that there's not very many similar players who made the jump from a full year of relief to a full year of starting at age 25, there is still some evidence to support this hypothesis. As for whether the latter is true, well... let's take a look. Answers to both questions are provided below.

Disclaimers on methodology are the same as stated here, except replace "OPS+" and "plate appearances" with "ERA+" and "innings pitched". This time, however, it was more than just age-related. Since the majority of Wainwright's comparable pitchers were relievers, it made more sense to choose the ones in his top 20 comparables who made the most starts in their age-25 seasons to get the "top ten"; unfortunately, there weren't enough that started in their age-25 season to fill out the ten. So, the bottom four guys on the list I used were those who made the most starts of the 11-20 range on Wainwright's comps. There are some relievers on the list, yeah, so it's skewed. But I wanted to get a bigger sample than just the four guys who were at least part-time starters; I seperated those guys out later anyway.

Adam Wainwright
age 24 (2006): 61 G (0 GS), 75 IP, 3.12 ERA (141 ERA+), 1.15 WHIP, 6 HR, 22 BB, 72 K
age 25 (2007): ???

Most Comparable Players In Age-25 Season
1. Ryan Madson (1st overall)
age 24 (2005): 78 G (0 GS), 87 IP, 4.14 ERA (109 ERA+), 1.25 WHIP, 11 HR, 25 BB, 79 K
age 25 (2006): 50 G (17 GS), 134 1/3 IP, 5.69 ERA (81 ERA+), 1.68 WHIP, 20 HR, 50 BB, 99 K
2. Randy Moffitt (2nd overall)
age 24 (1973): 60 G (0 GS), 100 1/3 IP, 2.42 ERA (158 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 9 HR, 31 BB, 65 K
age 25 (1974): 61 G (1 GS), 102 IP, 4.50 ERA (85 ERA+), 1.25 WHIP, 9 HR, 29 BB, 49 K
3. Adrian Devine (3rd overall)
age 24 (1976): 48 G (1 GS), 73 IP, 3.21 ERA (118 ERA+), 1.34 WHIP, 3 HR, 26 BB, 48 K
age 25 (1977): 56 G (2 GS), 105 2/3 IP, 3.58 ERA (115 ERA+), 1.26 WHIP, 8 HR, 31 BB, 67 K
4. Mike Garman (4th overall)
age 24 (1974): 64 G (0 GS), 81 2/3 IP, 2.64 ERA (136 ERA+), 1.14 WHIP, 4 HR, 27 BB, 45 K
age 25 (1975): 66 G (0 GS), 79 IP, 2.39 ERA (158 ERA+), 1.53 WHIP, 3 HR, 48 BB, 48 K
5. Ron Davis (5th overall)
age 24 (1980): 53 G (0 GS), 131 IP, 2.95 ERA (133 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 9 HR, 32 BB, 65 K
age 25 (1981): 43 G (0 GS), 73 IP, 2.71 ERA (132 ERA+), 0.99 WHIP, 6 HR, 25 BB, 83 K
6. Rawly Eastwick (7th overall)
age 24 (1975): 58 G (0 GS), 90 IP, 2.60 ERA (138 ERA+), 1.13 WHIP, 6 HR, 25 BB, 61 K
age 25 (1976): 71 G (0 GS), 107 2/3 IP, 2.09 ERA (168 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, 3 HR, 27 BB, 70 K
7. Mike Harkey (9th overall)
age 24 (1991): 4 G (4 GS), 18 2/3 IP, 5.30 ERA (73 ERA+), 1.45 WHIP, 3 HR, 6 BB, 15 K
age 25 (1992): 7 G (7 GS), 38 IP, 1.89 ERA (191 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, 4 HR, 15 BB, 21 K
8. Curt Schilling (11th overall)
age 24 (1991): 56 G (0 GS), 75 2/3 IP, 3.81 ERA (92 ERA+), 1.56 WHIP, 2 HR, 39 BB, 71 K
age 25 (1992): 42 G (26 GS), 226 1/3 IP, 2.35 ERA (150 ERA+), 0.99 WHIP, 11 HR, 59 BB, 147 K
9. Gary Glover (17th overall)
age 24 (2001): 46 G (11 GS), 100 1/3 IP, 4.93 ERA (94 ERA+), 1.30 WHIP, 16 HR, 32 BB, 63 K
age 25 (2002): 41 G (22 GS), 138 1/3 IP, 5.20 ERA (88 ERA+), 1.36 WHIP, 21 HR, 52 BB, 70 K
10. Pete Redfern (20th overall)
age 24 (1979): 40 G (6 GS), 108 1/3 IP, 3.49 ERA (126 ERA+), 1.30 WHIP, 8 HR, 35 BB, 85 K
age 25 (1980): 23 G (16 GS), 104 2/3 IP, 4.56 ERA (96 ERA+), 1.27 WHIP, 11 HR, 33 BB, 73 K

In case you're curious, those omitted were:
6th overall: Doug Bird, 1975-76 (age 25-26, reliever)
8th overall: Turk Farrell, 1959-60 (age 25-26, reliever)
10th overall: Bill Simas, 1996-97 (reliever)
12th overall: Rusty Meacham, 1992-93 (reliever)
13th overall: Rollie Fingers, 1971-72 (reliever)
14th overall: Joey McLaughlin, 1981-82 (reliever)
15th overall: Matt Anderson, 2001-02 (reliever)
16th overall: Cecilio Guante, 1984-85 (reliever)
18th overall: Steve Foucault, 1974-75 (reliever)
19th overall: Robb Nen, 1994-95 (reliever)

Averages:
age 24: 51 G (2 GS), 86 2/3 IP, 3.39 ERA (123 ERA+), 1.26 WHIP, 6.20 K/9, 0.74 HR/9, 2.89 BB/9, 2.15 K/BB
age 25: 46 G (9 GS), 111 IP, 3.62 ERA (122 ERA+), 1.27 WHIP, 5.90 K/9, 0.78 HR/9, 2.99 BB/9, 1.97 K/BB
Wainwright in 2006 (rate stats included): 61 G (0 GS), 75 IP, 3.12 ERA (141 ERA+), 1.15 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 0.72 HR/9, 2.64 BB/9, 3.27 K/BB
PECOTA weighted mean forecast for Wainwright in 2007: 25 G (25 GS), 151 2/3 IP, 3.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.18 K/9, 1.01 HR/9, 2.85 BB/9, 2.52 K/BB

Of note:
• The thing that sticks out the most from this comparison is that on average, these guys got worse in every peripheral statistic from age 24 to age 25. Perhaps it's a condition of the sample I used; a good percentage of these guys made quite a few more starts at age 25, but still it's a bit of a shock that EVERY peripheral was worse. PECOTA forecasts the same for Wainwright as probably a casualty of the conversion to starting. Still, the forecast doesn't seem to greatly affect his ERA, as the weighted mean calls for a likely above-league-average 3.88, which would be very nice.

• Only four of the top 20 comparables made more than 7 starts in their age-25 season, which is what we all hope Wainwright will do. These four were Madson, Schilling, Glover, and Redfern. Those guys declined a lot less overall in HR/9 (0.90 to 0.94) and even improved their BB/9 (3.18 to 2.89), but their K/9 went down significantly (7.22 to 5.80) - probably from the transition to starting, as already stated. It's nice to see that the most similar guys in terms of role at age 25 handled themselves well - their ERA+ increased from 106 to 111.

• It's sort of interesting to see guys like Fingers and Nen, both of whom were regarded as a top-tier closer in their respective eras, on this list, although it maybe makes you wonder "what if".

• Curt Schilling's 1992 season was a big time breakout, easily the best campaign on the list. After arriving from the Astros in exchange for (yikes!) Jason Grimsley right before Opening Day, Schilling opened the season in the bullpen. After a sterling first month which earned him two saves and a 2.86 ERA (29 K/11 BB in 28 1/3 IP), he was moved into the Phillies' rotation to stay, and did not disappoint. Schilling pitched a whopping 198 innings of 2.27 ERA in only 26 starts (118 K/48 BB), holding hitters to a measely .539 OPS as a starter. He also completed 10 games and threw 4 shutouts. The best part? He only gave up 11 home runs in 226 1/3 innings. Wow. Wainwright almost surely won't become that kind of a stud right away (at least, not one with that kind of workload), but it's nice to see a season like that on this list nonetheless.

• Ryan Madson. Yeesh. Madson started his roller-coaster 2006 season in the Phillies' rotation, lost his job when the Phils called up phenom Cole Hamels in May, blew the win for Hamels in his major league debut, rejoined the rotation when the Phillies lost Jon Lieber to a groin injury two weeks later (and stuck for longer than anticipated thanks to Brett Myers', uh, issues in June), tied the major-league regular season record with four wild pitches in an inning in a start on July 25, then went back to the bullpen after Randy Wolf was deemed recovered from Tommy John surgery about a week later. When all was said and done, his 5.69 ERA was thanks to a fairly drastic starter/reliever split (6.28 in 90 1/3 IP as a starter, 4.50 in 44 IP as a reliever). And he just got his second loss in two games to start 2007. Yikes. We can only hope it doesn't turn out so bad.

Conclusion:
PECOTA is more optimistic about Wainwright than I am. It's gotta be hard as hell to transition from relief to starting - especially for a guy like Adam, who essentially has two pitches, fastball and curve. If Dave Duncan can teach him an effective third pitch, it's possible he could fool hitters enough to keep his HR rate down and his K rate up; however, with just two pitches in his arsenal, major league hitters ought to be good enough to figure him out eventually. That kind of stuff tends to fare better in relief. I have enough confidence in Dunc and Wainwright's makeup as a pitcher to create an effective starter; I'm just not convinced that it will happen in 2007. If Adam hits his PECOTA, I'll be pretty happy. And heck, if this starter thing doesn't work out, he could always go back to closing out playoff series, right?

Program Note: I'm leaving tomorrow afternoon for Houston. I'll be back Monday and hopefully soon thereafter, I'll have my review of Minute Maid Park. 0-3, outscored 20-2. Carp's elbow problems. Geesh. At least we've hit rock bottom early, there's nowhere to go but up!