July 29, 2005
Astros
With yesterday's big win over the Mets and the evil Carlos Beltran, the Astros caught the Nationals for the wild card lead last night. The Astros have gone 18-2 in their last twenty non-Cardinal games. How big does that sweep of Pettitte, Oswalt and Clemens look now? If the broom had gone the other way, then we're looking at a lead that's smaller than the number of Cardinal regulars on the disabled list.
Their recipe for success is no secret. Clemens's back is bothering him and Oswalt's always an injury concern, but unless Larry Walker's caused a nationwide shortage of painkillers, they'll probably manage. Their comeback and the A's similar rally -- ESPN.com has gone "pay" for almost everything, but evidently even Joe Morgan's calling the A's the best team in baseball right now -- are the stories of the middle third of the season.
July 28, 2005
July 26, 2005
FREED!
No, not Roger Freed, the act of being set free. With the latest addition to a rapidly-growing disabled list, John Gall will join the big club for the series in San Diego. How many OFs we got left in Memphis, Len?
TSF
July 25, 2005
K Files
Before I get started, Neifi Perez sucks. Let's get that out of the way.
In case you hadn't noticed, in Mark Mulder's last three outings he's thrown 22 innings, giving up only two runs. He also struck out only seven batters while also walking seven. At this point we're thinking about the post-season -- that's the only way I can maintain my composure when Hector Luna is batting 6th or when the Cardinals are getting beaten by Henry "176 / 202 / 282" Blanco -- so the question is whether the low strikeout/low run games will turn from gold into lead come October. On one side you have the party line that Mulder's a solid #3 starter and on the other side you have the Bill James ideas expressed well by L Boros, which says you gotta have some strikeouts. Like L Boros, I'm also not comfortable with the concept of Mark Mulder pitching a big game, so I ran some numbers to check on my stat-head prejudices.
Anyway, I first tried regressing post-season ERA on regular season ERA and K-rates. I did that by season and by career for individual pitchers, and in both cases all I got was noise. As it turns out, there have been 299 pitcher-seasons (e.g., Matt Morris-2002 and Matt Morris-2004) among post-season starters, so I decided to group post-season starters over the last ten years into three K-rate groups of 100, 99 and 100. Here's what I got:
Class RegERA RegK PostERA PostStarts PostIP Low K 4.24 13.60% (5.3) 4.42 205 1181 Mid K 3.79 17.02% (6.4) 4.32 208 1234 HighK 3.36 23.41% (8.7) 3.51 247 1608 TOTAL 3.77 18.26% (6.9) 4.03 660 4023
Note that these are overall post-season numbers for pitchers who started at least one post-season game. This means, for example, that I included Pedro's strange little relief stint against the Yankees in last year's ALCS in his 2004 post-season stats.
My K-rate groupings are based on strikeouts per batters faced ("RegK") during the regular season, as opposed to the traditional K per nine innings. However, I've included each group's regular season K-rates per-nine in parentheses for familiarity's sake. Mulder's K-rate stands at 13.3% in 2005, so he fits comfortably in that Low-K group. Each group experienced a decline in the post-season, which is what you'd expect since there aren't a lot of bad offenses in the post-season. High-K pitchers experience a bit less decline (note that Rick Ankiel-2000 is in that group) than the Low-K group, but not enough to get excited about. Actually it's the in-between guys who take the biggest hit.
Whether or not this is statistically significant, it does answer my question on Mulder. For now I'll bag my theory that low-K pitchers have wider bad team/good team splits than high-K starters.
Originally I had planned on just showing the Low and High K pitchers and leaving it that, but it was strange to me that the Mid Ks lost more value than anyone. So being the inquisitive guy that I am, I decided to see what happens when you sort by walks:
Class RegERA RegBB PostERA PostStarts PostIP Low BB 3.51 5.09% (1.9) 3.49 231 1458 Mid BB 3.91 7.62% (2.9) 4.42 229 1386 HighBB 3.91 10.07% (3.9) 4.23 200 1179 TOTAL 3.77 7.48% (2.8) 4.03 660 4023
Well, that's interesting. Low BB starters don't lose lot a value in the post-season, or at least they haven't in the past ten years. Once again the middle group took a bigger hit than the "bad" group. One last table, this one by K/BB:
Class RegERA RegK/BB PostERA PostStarts PostIP Low K/BB 4.22 1.59 4.46 206 1197 Mid K/BB 3.77 2.31 4.57 211 1230 HighK/BB 3.38 3.90 3.28 243 1596 TOTAL 3.77 2.44 4.03 660 4023
Again the guys in the middle have been dropping the most, to the point that they've been worse than the low K/BBers in the post-season. There is probably some sort of selection bias at work here or maybe I need to control for the opponent. Whatever the case, there isn't anything in the aggregate data to suggest Mulder is particularly vulnerable to collapse during the post-season. My gut still feels otherwise, but the gut feelings of stat-heads aren't especially useful.
[UPDATE: Now included post-season IP. And Mulder looked terrible last night.]
July 23, 2005
Scrappy Win
Look at the key players for tonight's 2-1 win over the Cubs:
(1) Chris Carpenter was picked up prior to to the 2003 season and after shoulder surgery. He pitched 18.2 innings in the minors that year, meaning he was basically paid $300K to rehab. Nowadays when he gives up one run in nine innings we feel like he had an off night.
(2) John Rodriguez grew up in the Bronx and played in the Yankees system until this season. Last year he hit 294/382/542 at AAA, nice numbers even for a 26 year-old. This year he was hitting 286/355/610 overall at AAA, and of course he's been killing the ball the last month at Memphis after being dumped in June for a 30 year-old AA catcher. Tonight J-Rod (ugh, not another one) homered off Carlos Zambrano to go along with his homer off Ben Sheets a couple of days before, the Cardinals' only run off Zambrano in nine innings.
(3) Al Reyes was released by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays last season, evidently at his request since he couldn't get the call-up to the majors. The Cardinals signed him, sent him to Memphis and tried him out at the majors late in the year. Reyes has pitched in the minors every season of his pro career except 1995, when he was a Rule 5 pick. This year he's been one of best relievers in baseball. Reyes got one out in the 11th to pick up a cheap win.
(4) John Mabry has bounced around in his own right, and last year he too had to start the season at AAA. After returning to the majors, he blasted a 296/363/504 line in 2004, although in 2005 he's come back almost exactly to his more mundane career averages of 271/328/413. Of course he's best known for teaching the world that "Moneyball" isn't just about OBP. Tonight as a pinch hitter he hit a ball off a seam (or something) of the left field wall. Since Mabry was running out of the box, he was able to leg out a leadoff triple.
(5) Hector Luna is a two-time Rule 5 pick. He can't hit much, but he's an ath-u-lete, as Frank Broyles would say. He pinch ran for Mabry and scored the winning run.
(6) David Eckstein's life story has been beaten to death, but of particular relevance here is that the Angels let him go so they could sign a more aesthetically pleasing, if not more effective, shortstop. Eckstein laid down a walkoff squeeze. Well, it's Eckstein, so he ran to first.
Mike Mahoney, a long-time minor leaguer, and Abraham Nunez, a non-roster invitee back in February, also started tonight. Score this win for the scrap heap guys.
July 20, 2005
McCormick Moves Up!!
Cardinals first round pick and former Baylor Bear product mark McCormick has looked impressive so far and is moving up to A ball. The 6'1" 195 lbs 21 year old allowed only 1 hit in 6 innings with 10 Ks and 0 R over 2 games. His weakness has been his lack of control at times, but so far he has walked only three batters. Cardinals' brass felt his performance was good enough to move him up from the Cardinals short season rookie ball team in New Jersey to low-A affiliate Quad Cities where he will join another touted Cardinal prospect, Rick Ankiel.
McCormick features an electric fastball that usually sits in the 92-95 mph range but will often touch 96-98. In the Cape Cod League All-Star game last summer, McCormick peaked at 101 mph. McCormick's curveball has started improving, and he now trusts it and uses it more often which increases the effectiveness of his fastball. Again, his one Achilles heel has been sporadic command, and it has worried scouts about his ability to handle pressure, but so far so good.
Right now I would rank McCormick as the Cardinals number 4 pitching prospect behind Reyes, Wainwright, and Lambert. I don't see Reyes and Wainwright falling any time soon, but Lambert struggled in his first couple of starts at AA. However, he has since settled in. Blake Hawksworth, a former top Cardinal pitching prospect, has also looked good coming back from surgery in his first few appearances at New Jersey.
Stay tuned as I will continue providing more info on Cardinals prospects, and my prospect rankings will be coming out soon after I have studied up on the new Cardinals draft picks.
Lost
Tonight's game spurred a couple of idle thoughts as the season hits the dog days. It's been a while since the Cardinals lost, so I'm not prepared to handle it gracefully.
First, the Cardinals need to get their noses out of the MRIs and put Scott Rolen on the disabled list. The man is in intense pain at the plate, to the point where he's yelling when he swings and misses. Rolen seems more interested in being the anti-JD Drew and LaRussa gives his established veterans plenty, sometimes too much, leash. Somebody has to be an adult, and this may be the kind of situation where Mike Matheny is missed.
On another front, Jeff Suppan hit for himself in the bottom of the 6th with a 4-3 lead. Then he got pulled before the top of the 7th. Matt Morris went through something similar the night before. With a couple of guys on the bench -- yes, they were backup catchers -- Al Reyes hit for himself in the bottom of the 12th on Friday, then got pulled midway through the 13th. I'm choosing my words carefully when I say I don't understand this. If the bench is so short that LaRussa feels compelled to let his pitchers hit in odd situations, maybe that's a sign that the roster is imbalanced. That is to say, maybe they have one too many relievers. It's not the like the bullpen's been worked hard, as the Cardinals are 28th in the majors in reliever innings. It would mean the end to one-batter outings like the weird one Randy Flores had tonight, but I'm not sure that's a bad thing.
Finally, Brady Clark has joined my Players-I-Don't-Like Club. I'm picky about these things, as Barry Bonds and Kenny Rogers aren't even members. But the way Clark crowds the plate got him a nomination and the big hunk of body armor on his front elbow made the vote unanimous. While the membership list isn't public, maybe Carlos Zambrano or Craig Counsell can teach him the secret handshake.
July 18, 2005
Reggie Out, John Rodriguez In
As a result of his nasty collision with Jim Edmonds Friday night, Reggie Sanders will miss the next 4-6 weeks with a slight fracture in his right ankle. Reggie has rebounded nicely from a tough season in 2004, posting .281/.344/.553 after .260/.315/.482 last year. He's hit 18 home runs already, nearly eclipsing his 22 total from all of '04 in just over half a season. So, it's definitely a blow to the lineup.
But it could've been worse. First, as much as I hate to lose Reggie, we certainly got the better end of that collision. Losing Edmonds for several months would be a huge problem. I like So Taguchi, but seeing him start long-term in CF isn't an attractive option. Second, it gives an opportunity to see John Rodriguez at the major league level -- Rodriguez, as shown previously on this site, has absolutely hit the cover off the ball since coming to Memphis from the Buffalo Bisons. Rodriguez posted a .924 OPS for the Yankees' AAA affiliate in Columbus last season, but has not yet cracked a major league roster. He'll possibly be making his major league debut tonight against the Brewers. Needless to say, it could be an interesting situation.
Hopefully, the bone will heal as planned, and the Cards will have Reggie back for October. Either way, they avoided a much worse situation -- and should probably have enough in the tank to maintain their double-digit lead in the Central Division.
July 15, 2005
07/14/2005
AN ACTUALLY DECENT (FROM A SABR STANDPOINT) PROGNOSTICATION ARTICLE!!!!
Posted by TOLAXOR
July 14, 2005
All-Star Residue
The ratings for the All-Star Game are in, and they're not very good. Perhaps the nation is finally waking up and realizing that making the game decide home field advantage for the world series still isn't going to make players care like they did in decades past. Watching the game the other night, you could tell that a lot of guys were just playing not to get hurt. So, the Cards got screwed out of home field in last year's Series, and that could quite possibly happen again this fall.
Unfortunately, the ASG-for-home-field scenario doesn't seem to be going anywhere fast. The current "solution" for the game was a result of a rock-bottom experience in 2002, so perhaps it'll take another one, in the way of free falling ratings, for Bud to figure out a new one.
Then again... maybe not.
July 13, 2005
07/12/2005
WINSHARES @ THE ASB VIA HARDBALL TIMES- TAKE A LOOK AT GRUDZ AND ECKSTEIN, AND SAY "THANK YOU, JEFF & MGL"
Posted by TOLAXOR
July 12, 2005
Break in the Action
I've been trying to decide whether the Cardinals really need another outfielder -- I mean, Jim Edmonds, Reggie Sanders and Larry Walker have EqA's of .311, .300 and .295 -- and whether John Rodriguez's 15-homer month means he could fill that hypothetical need. However I couldn't come up with a satisfactory answer, so I started asking silly questions Retrosheet can answer.
For example, do you know who led the Cardinals in called strikes last year? This one surprised me:
BATTER CALLED STRIKES Tony Womack 540 Albert Pujols 397 Edgar Renteria 387 Jim Edmonds 383 Scott Rolen 372
Can that be right? How about swinging strikes?
BATTER SWINGING STRIKES Jim Edmonds 323 Reggie Sanders 276 Scott Rolen 186 Mike Matheny 169 Edgar Renteria 146 John Mabry 145
That one I can believe. Pujols comes in at 134. Here's balls taken, excluding intentional balls and pitchouts:
BATTER BALLS Jim Edmonds 1052 Albert Pujols 987 Scott Rolen 958 Edgar Renteria 829 Tony Womack 826
And finally foul balls, excluding foul bunts:
BATTER FOUL BALLS Scott Rolen 441 Jim Edmonds 424 Albert Pujols 384 Tony Womack 370 Edgar Renteria 362
Retrosheet has an additional 25 foul bunts for Womack. The Cardinals had two eight-foul at-bats in 2004, one from Womack and the other from Cody McKay.
Another "can that be right?" is that Retrosheet only shows 13 pickoff attempts by Cardinal catchers all season long in 2004. Only two were successful as far as I can tell, one on 6/30 and the other on 9/30.
Three more days until Cardinals pitchers and catchers report.
July 11, 2005
Rolen Out Of The ASG
As you may have read elsewhere, Scott Rolen has taken his name off the All-Star roster.
"I need to get to full strength, and I'm not there yet. I had a very rough time (Saturday) and was still having a tough time this morning. It seemed to be everybody's opinion that I needed four days off more than I needed to go to Detroit, and I couldn't disagree."
Thank you, Scott. We at The Birdwatch whole-heartedly endorse your decision to take the few days off, since we all know what happens when Cards with hurt shoulders participate in the All-Star festivities.
Injuries get re-aggravated, and things get ugly in the second half. Very ugly.
Also, Rolen withdrawing allows a very deserving Morgan Ensberg to make the team as a reserve behind new starter Aramis "I'll start playing hard once I'm traded out of Pittsburgh" Ramirez. Ensberg is third in the National League with 24 home runs, and trails only Albert Pujols and Derrek Lee with his .983 OPS... yet, until the day beforehand, he wasn't even an All-Star.
July 08, 2005
Late Night in Arizona
Here's how the top of the 8th unfolded:
- Y. Molina hit by pitch
- H. Luna ran for Y. Molina
- J. Marquis flied out to center
- D. Eckstein singled to center, H. Luna to third
- A. Almanza relieved C. Vargas
- A. Pujols hit for J. Edmonds
Er, OK. So TLR let the pitcher hit for himself and pulled the 950 OPS guy. Then he let that pitcher hit for himself again in the 9th with runners on first and third in a tie game... and then pulled Marquis before the next half inning.
That's just weird.
July 07, 2005
July 05, 2005
The Kearns Report
Since I'm pining for Austin Kearns, it seemed appropriate to go watch him play when he's visiting Indianapolis. During his first at-bat he fouled one at me, as if the Baseball Gods were sending me message. To make the message clearer, Kearns then hit a 400-foot homer to right-center off Mike Connolly. He came up in the second inning and homered off Connolly again, this one crushed down the LF line. Then he came up in the fourth inning, and for some variety, he homered off Brian Mallette. I got the message, so I went down to the right field foul pole in the bottom of the fourth to discuss a potential move to St. Louis. For some reason Kearns wasn't very chatty. Maybe he thought Ray King put me up to this. Whatever the case, I attended this game specifically to see Kearns play and he responded by hitting three home runs. You can imagine the irrational impression this has left on me.
As for stuff, you can't find in the boxscore, yes, Kearns looks heavy. No, he's not as fat as John Belushi and in fact I'd say he's fitter than Larry Walker, but if Kearns is going to play any center field, he'll need to lose a few pounds.
07/04/2005
LARRY WALKER, NICE GUY
Posted by TOLAXOR
RICH LEDERER AT BASEBALL ANALYSTS SAYS NICE THINGS ABOUT JIMMY AND CHRIS CARPENTER
Posted by TOLAXOR
July 04, 2005
Who's Hot & Who's Not -- Halfway Mark!
On Pace For: 102-60
Magic Number: 72
This doesn't feel like a 102-win team, does it? Nor does it feel like a 10.5 game lead. Yet here we stand. This being the halfway mark, I though I'd try something a little different.
One of my responsibilities at work is financial projections. The head honchos want to have some idea what they can expect over the next year and beyond. Then much fun happens when reality doesn't match those projections. Back in January, using Dan Szymborski's ZiPS as an engine, I attempted a Cardinals projection (hitting here and pitching here). Let's see who's exceeded expectations and who will get called to the CFO's office. First the hitters:
Name pOPS OPS pXR XR Var Alomar# 651 000 4.1 0.0 -4.1 Cedeno# 685 372 11.7 0.4 -11.3 Diaz 571 515 7.8 2.9 -5.0 Eckstein 661 742 30.9 42.5 11.6 Edmonds* 990 948 53.6 47.3 -6.3 Gall 781 000 2.9 0.0 -2.9 Grudzielanek 717 732 24.2 37.3 13.1 Hart 697 000 5.8 0.0 -5.8 Luna 699 516 12.2 1.3 -10.9 Mabry* 812 696 19.6 15.9 -3.7 Mahoney 661 000 2.1 0.0 -2.1 McKay* 617 000 1.8 0.0 -1.8 Molina 673 669 22.6 25.0 2.4 Nunez# 655 766 2.1 23.8 21.7 Pujols 1094 1031 75.7 74.0 -1.7 Rolen 931 792 55.9 22.8 -33.1 Sanders 757 905 31.6 45.6 14.0 Schumaker* 663 000 2.2 -0.5 -2.7 Seabol 766 696 2.8 7.0 4.2 Taguchi 635 722 7.0 19.9 12.9 Walker* 793 844 32.0 36.2 4.2 Pitchers 429 460 5.0 6.5 1.5 TOTAL 783 776 413.6 407.8 -5.8
The Cardinals scored 420 runs in the real world, 6 six runs better than projected, but their run components say they should've scored six run less. In other words the projection was pretty good in aggregate, although the Cardinals had a "nonrecurring gain" of 12 runs, if you believe the model. Until a couple of weeks ago I might have thought their baserunning was worth something extra, but there have been a couple of baserunning blunders that changed my opinion.
At the individual level there are two sources of variance, playing time and playing quality. Grudzielanek, for example, is hitting close to his projection rate-wise, but he's got almost 50% more at-bats than my projection assumed (290 versus 200 in the first half). Seabol actually has been a little bit worse rate-wise, but has had about 3X playing time. In raw numbers the biggest winner here is Nunez, but enough of his gain is inflated by a playing time difference that I'll give my first half Overachievers Award to Sanders. Rolen gets the Underachiever Award. You know, we really could get on Rolen about him being selfish when he didn't go on a rehab assignment.
The pitchers get a little more complicated. Carpenter, for example, has thrown his hat into the Cy Young race, but he's actually given up more runs than I projected (39 versus 37) and the reason, of course, is that he's thrown 50% more innings than I assumed. So I got cute and made use of the "replacement level" device. I'll set 6 runs (total runs, not just earned runs) per 9 innings as replacement level. That's a little high, but since I'm looking at variances, that should be fine for my purposes. Here's how my projected versus actual "values over replacement pitchers" line up:
NAME pERA ERA pVORP VORP Var Ankiel 5.59 sigh -0.3 0.0 0.3 Borland 4.00 1.3 0.0 -1.3 Cali 4.89 10.50 0.3 -4.0 -4.3 Carpenter 3.81 2.60 16.3 41.9 25.6 Eldred 4.57 1.00 3.0 5.0 2.0 Flores 4.75 3.60 0.3 1.7 1.3 Isringhausen 3.00 2.05 9.0 11.6 2.6 Jarvis 13.50 0.0 -2.8 -2.8 Journell 10.38 0.0 -3.1 -3.1 King 3.66 2.22 7.0 10.2 3.2 Lincoln 4.08 5.0 0.0 -5.0 Marquis 4.28 4.11 12.7 12.7 0.0 Morris 4.13 3.31 11.7 19.8 8.1 Mulder 3.63 4.54 22.7 13.3 -9.3 Myers 4.39 2.3 0.0 -2.3 Pulsipher 6.75 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 Reyes,Al 4.09 1.89 5.0 15.2 10.2 Reyes,An 4.11 6.0 0.0 -6.0 Rust 4.64 0.3 0.0 -0.3 Suppan 4.52 4.34 11.3 6.6 -4.8 Tavarez 3.25 2.43 9.3 12.7 3.3 Thompson 4.44 1.99 0.3 9.1 8.8 White 2.16 0.0 3.6 3.6 Wainwright 4.70 0.3 0.0 -0.3 TOTAL 4.09 3.54 124.0 153.0 29.0
The model predicted 361 runs allowed, compared to 327 actual. There were also 7.5 fewer innings pitched, so I compute +29 rather than +34 VORP. I found my VORP to be a decent proxy for a more respected VORP, if something from the Swedish Chef's vocabulary can be respected. Obviously the big winner here is Carpenter (duh), but aside from Carpenter the pitching has matched expectations. In particular, the 3M starters Mulder, Morris and Marquis net to zero. Al Reyes, the guy who couldn't find a major league job last summer, has a higher VORP than Mark Mulder. Stupid Spartan.
One little thing I noticed from this exercise is that the Cardinals have given up a lot of unearned runs, 44 to be precise. That's the 5th-most in baseball, and they have the highest UER/R ratio in all of baseball. I'll leave any allocation to the reader.
*****
On a completely unrelated note, congratulations are in order for Edmonds, Rolen, Eckstein, Pujols, Carpenter and Isringhausen. There are definitely problems with the selection process -- Beltran is more smooth than great and at least Andruw Jones hasn't popped into a GIDP recently -- but it's still a great honor.
Happy Independence Day. And, hey, let's be careful out there.
July 02, 2005
Game for Sale, Part 1
Walt Jocketty is an average GM. Billy Beane is above average but not the best. Brian Cashman better have his resume handy and should change his last name to reduce the irony of his situation.
It seems to me that ever since Moneyball came out that the emergence of Sabermetrics to popular awareness has brought the GM to the forefront of franchise importance. And so the focus of a great number of baseball fans across the country has been on the tug of war between penny-pinching crafty GMs and brute force, bottomless purse GMs and their abilities to buy, sell and trade quantifiable stat lines we all call players.
So who is winning this battle and what does it matter? If these GMs had baseball cards, what would the backs of them say? Towards the end of Moneyball, Paul DePodesta gripes that the playoffs are essentially a crap shoot -- no skill necessary. Still, many concerned fans worried the 2004 Cardinals weren’t “built for” the playoffs.
Can a franchise buy a World Series ring? Most people would say no. But many people might believe a franchise can buy a regular season.
I've gathered a rough graphical introduction to League parity and efficiency. Let’s see how the teams are doing so far -- roughly 1/2 way through -- this season (as of games through 7/1/2005).
(If anyone knows how to turn xcel charts into .jpg or otherwise display them, please let me know... otherwise we're stuck with .pdf downloads).
The first thing that surprised me was the relatively steady slope of increase across League payroll. That is, until you get to the Red Sox and Yankees. Clearly, the Yankees are the "Evil Empire," and the Red Sox obviously coined that term to hide in its monstrous shadow and mug old women anonymously. Hey, we may be bad, but at least we're not Yankee bad. But barring those two extremes, the League is not quite the stark example of the Haves and the Have Nots as I previously thought.
Given that these are rough numbers to start off with, I thought I'd at least scrape away one more layer and look at costs within divisions. What a different picture we get when we group the franchises by division.
That's more illuminating. Essentially, each division has a pretty much logarithmic curve of payroll, except, again, the ALE which appears more exponential.
It's a tough thing to evaluate the performance of a GM based on 1/2 a season of play. All the numbers above and below are assuming we've played exactly half the season (I chopped all the payrolls in half for the relative measures) and that the teams have all played the same number of games. But, they are not grossly off. The large trends become obvious and wouldn't be shaken by a couple wins in either direction.
With those biases acknowledged, how do we say how well or poorly a GM is doing anyway? Clearly, a team must compete at two levels, one level is within its own division in order to make the playoffs, and the second level is against the whole league in order to have a good chance at the World Championship when the regular season ends.
So, I concocted a measure of how relatively well or poorly each team is faring against both its division and the league averages as a function of marginal dollars spent above/below division and league average dollars spent.
The equation is roughly = ((Team Wins - Div Avg Wins)/Div Avg Wins) - ((Team Pay - Div Avg Pay)/Div Avg Pay).
And then the same thing for the league averages.
Taking this adjustment (and weighting the division result twice as much as the league result), I added it back into the actual wins to create what are called GM Power Wins. Afterall, efficient teams that aren't productive won't win seasons.
Surprised? This chart is essentially saying, how many wins are being bought above/below the actual wins given this team is in the division it's in, the overall league performance and its payroll. It was a personal pleasure of mine to see the Yankees slip below the Pirates here.
Of course, this is a measure of overall GM power, and I admit it probably over-weights the extreme cases. However, it's also interesting to see the GM Dollar Efficiency or Leverage that each GM brings to his franchise. This measure does not take payroll directly into account, meaning it gives small payroll team GMs a chance to strut their stuff right up there with the big boys. It's just Power Wins/Actual Wins.
Somewhat surprising to me is the ranking of Walt Jocketty. Within the Cards' blogosphere, Walt usually has a reputation of being some sort of genius. Well, he's clearly not bad, but he's not over-performing with the wallet either. In fact, he's precisely neutral, which is fine now that we have the 6th largest payroll in baseball. But it's a different feeling to think that we owe our results to the quantity of dollars spent rather than the quality of deals; to say that at least Walt isn't hurting us.
07/01/2005
Catchers mitts don't provide enough protection- Will somebody please think of Yadier?
Posted by josh.schulz