Pirates Eliminated

With the Cards' win against the Marlins tonight, and the Pirates' loss to the Brewers, the Bucs officially relinquished any shot at winning the Central Division. They still have an outside shot, okay it's so outside it might be called an extraterrestrial shot, at winning the Wildcard, but tonight we're talking about clinching the division.

The Cards Magic Numbers for the rest of the division:

HOU 16.0
MIL 10.0
CHI 8.0
CIN 8.0

Everything is Numb3rs

Courtesy of the one of the useful pages on ESPN.com, here are some quick, silly stats about Ray King that probably have no predictive value:

2005 v. LHB: 247 / 301 / 377 in 77 AB
2005 v. RHB: 323 / 408 / 548 in 62 AB

After 0-2 count: 400 / 419 / 567 in 30 AB

Again, these numbers are for entertainment purposes only, but I'd have sworn lefties have hit closer to .350 against King. The 0-2 thing isn't a surprise, and I was wondering how much King was thinking Tuesday night about LaRussa's reaction to the Delgado walk on Monday. In theory that 0-2 thing can be fixed, but until that happens and with Mark Mulder experiencing another late season physical problem, that leaves Randy Flores as the staff's #1 lefty. Ouch.

Milestones

Last night's 6-3 Cardinal victory was an event that transcended a mere win, as it featured a momentous occurrence that, once it happened, made you appreciate all the time and effort spent to get to that point, all the opportunities for failure but also, yes, success.

Last night, in the 5th inning with nobody out and David Eckstein on first after being hit by a pitch, Jim Edmonds grounded into a 3-6-3 double play---ending his streak of of not grounding into a DP all year.

Of course, last night featured something else, something bigger, something less about NOT doing something, and more about DOING, about dogged striving, day in day out, to attain a record of undeniable achievement... You know what I'm talking about...

...Yes, last night Yadier Molina finished the game with an OBP above .300, the first time he's done that all year.

Let's look at some key dates in Ya Mo's steady climb:

April 12.... .000 (after 5 games played)
April 13.... .053 (after a single, he has reached base in 1 of 19 PAs)
April 16.... .074 (draws first walk of the season)
April 17.... .067 (at the infamous 1-for-29 stage)
April 18.... .143 (after 3-for-5 performance against Pirates)
April 19.... .175 (new high-water mark after going 2-for-5)
April 27.... .180 (new high after a single and his 2nd walk of the year)
April 30.... .197 (new high after two hits and 3rd walk of the year)
May 1....... .224 (new high after two hits and 4th walk; now has 3 walks over 5 games)
May 13..... .267 (sixth straight game in which he's achieved a new season-high OBP; goes 9-for-21 with a walk)
May 25..... .279 (4-for-4 vs. Pirates)
May 28..... .280 (2-for-3 vs. Nationals)
May 30..... .285 (1-for-3 vs. Rox)
June 1...... .294 (2-for-3, two(!!) walks vs. Rox; only multi-walk game of the year)
June 7...... .300 (after 1-for-3 and a walk, highest point of the season before last night)
June 19..... .282 (0-for-5 vs. DRays caps skid where he reaches just 3 times in 19 PAs)
June 28..... .299 (hitless, but a walk in 3 PAs after game in which he was 2-for-3 with a walk leaves him knocking at the .300 door)
July 7........ .292 (hit by Claudio Vargas pitch, out for 6 weeks)
Aug 18...... .288 (0-fer on return from DL sends OBP below .290 for first time since June 20)
Aug 25...... .301 (responds to insertion into cleanup spot with single, double, and a walk to surge past .300)

Tony Left His Heart...

I moved this summer and have been to a lot of weddings, so I haven't had the chance to chip in at TBW as much as I'd like. But tonight, as I watched Tony La Russa win his 2,195th game, a delicious thought occurred to me. In the wake of the steroids scandals and questions of Hall of Fame electability, Tony La Russa has nothing to worry about. This guy is THIRD in all time victories as a manager. He IS a Hall of Famer, no doubt.

Now the question: WHEN Tony gets elected to the Hall of Fame, what cap do you think he'll wear? Now I know that HOF took this duty off of the players'/coaches'/broadcasters' shoulders after the Carlton Fisk fiasco, but what do you think? Will most people really remember that trivial point if the Hall of Fame chooses an Oakland A's cap? When La Russa retires and he moves back home to the Bay Area permanently, gets elected to the HOF with an A's cap on his plaque, will he officially be dead in the mind of Redbird Nation? Okay, that's three quuestions, wait... four, but that damn veggie-eatin', pet- lovin', Bay Arean may have won more games than Whitey, but he's not Whitey. Perhaps. That is, of course, if he fails to bring a World Series victory back to the Lou.

eKsclusive Klub

What do these 19 players have in common?

Jason Bay
Miguel Cabrera
Tony Clark
J.D. Closser
Morgan Ensberg
Luis Gonzalez (the one on the Rockies)
Troy Glaus
Shawn Green
Andruw Jones
Derrek Lee
Felipe Lopez
Mark Loretta
Xavier Nady
Jorge Piedra
Kelly Stinnett
Cory Sullivan
Mark Sweeney
Luis Terrero
Rickie Weeks

Answer:

These 19 are the only non-pitchers to fan against Jason Marquis in his last 13 starts, dating back to June 15 and covering 77.1 innings. Four of the 19---all of them Diamondbacks (Clark, Glaus, Green and Stinnett)---have had the dubious distinction of striking out twice against Marquis in this period.

Overall, the lack of strikeouts----just 29 over his last 13 starts, during which he is 1-10 and the team is 1-12---has to be one of the most intriguing pieces of of the puzzle in figuring out the great mystery of Marquis.

To be sure, Marquis has had some fine games in this stretch. But the fact that the only three games in which he had more than two strikeouts also happen to be three of his four best starts during the drought makes a case that this is a pitcher who, unlike Mark Mulder, simply cannot forego his Ks and still be effective.

When Mark Mulder is not striking people out, he's inducing grounders with well-located pitches and he's still staying around the strike zone. In Mulder's last 10 starts, he's fanned more than 3 just once, yet he's allowed two or fewer runs 8 times and he's 6-1. Despite his lack of Ks, Mulder is somehow able to pitch out of jams.

With Marquis, it appears to be the exact opposite---when he needs to get an out, it seems as if he simply can't find a way to get it. In last night's game (and granted, when your team scores zero runs you won't get the win, no matter what you do), after allowing singles to the first three hitters, Marquis was a strike away from escaping with just one run scoring, and then he threw a ball, another ball, allowed a foul, then another ball, to lose Doumit and load the bases. The he got two strikes on the next batter, Wigginton--again, one strike away from being out of the inning---before an outside delivery was poked down the line for a triple. Perhaps it was good defensive hitting, maybe just bad luck, but the bottom line was Marquis couldn't put either hitter away and now it was 4-0.

We all know that Marquis receives the worst run support among Cardinal starters, but in Marquis' 12 "non-wins" during the funk, seven times he's allowed at least 5 runs---meaning the Birds would have to score at minimum 6 (and usually many more) runs to win. His inability to avoid baserunners (1.63 WHIP since 6/15) and his lack of strikeouts are a formula for disaster.

I have no idea if the lack of strikeouts are related to Marquis' problems with his "game plan" and, specifically, his sinker, but Dave Duncan has his opinions:

"It was a repeat performance," said Duncan. "When he pitches well, he does certain things. When he pitches bad, he does the same certain things. And they're not the same.

"He goes away from his strength as a pitcher and it doesn't work for him. He's got to build his game around his strengths and complement them with the other stuff that he does. His strength is to throw sinkers in the bottom of the strike zone. He didn't do that today. When he did throw a sinker, it was up way too much of the time.

Maybe, sometimes, you have to bottom out before you can begin on a road to redemption. If that's the case, then I hope that last night was the nadir for Marquis, or else his next start may be his last for some time, and maybe his last as a Cardinal.

I'm surprised nobody's mentioned this yet....

[UPDATE: Rolen's over for 2005; elects surgery, probably within the coming week.]

Save for a stray comment in an earlier post here. But as long as I also blogged about it elsewhere....

I don't envy Scott Rolen right now, not since it was announced late last week that Rolen has a difficult decision to make soon. It appears that Rolen suffered a torn labrum in his collision with Hee-Seop Choi back in May, and a recent consultation with Cincinnati Reds team physician Dr. Tim Kremchek has revealed that apparently an earlier arthroscopic surgery which Rolen had this season didn't completely fix the problem. So it's the case that Rolen must have surgery, and the only question is timing. Surgery will probably sideline Rolen for about 6 months, which means if he has it soon, he should be at or near 100% by the time spring training 2006 starts, with bright prospects for a full 2006 season.

However, as Will Carroll points out in his last "Under the Knife" column at Baseball Prospectus (premium content; subscription required to view):

He'll need an open repair along the lines of the one that kept Mark Ellis out all of 2004. He'll be able to return in about six months, meaning that the timing of the surgery has to take not only the postseason into account, but next season as well. Trading time in the following season for a ring now--flags fly forever--can work, as it did with Curt Schilling. It can also go wrong, not providing any return. Rolen's decision is a hard one. He wants to help his team, especially given their excellent chance of heading back to the World Series.

On the other hand, as Matthew Leach's MLB.com article points out, Rolen himself is very aware that he's nowhere near 100% right now, and is contemplating whether his continued presence would hurt the ballclub in the near term:

"It was put to me, from Dr. Kremchek, that, 'you need to have surgery,' " Rolen told reporters on Thursday afternoon. " 'When all the smoke clears,' he says, 'you don't have any options. You have to have surgery.'

"The timing is the issue. That's the decision that I have to make. And he was not optimistic about me being able to rehab and come back and do anything -- compete, play. He's not optimistic."

...

"This team is on its way to the playoffs," Rolen said. "A lot of people can argue whatever they want, but at one point, I believe we were the best team in baseball. We have a lot of guys injured, but we're still in great position. We're still headed, hopefully, to the playoffs. If we can do this, if we can hang on, I have a chance of being part of something pretty special -- or I walk around in a sling.

"So that's a big decision. One of the questions is: What's my best chance to win a ring as a St. Louis Cardinal? It might be not to play. That's not easy. That's not an easy decision, to say I can't help this team -- I can hurt this team, but I can't help this team, so my best shot of helping this team win a World Series is to not play. That's not an easy decision to make."

Tough choice. I'm not sure I'd want to be in his shoes. Not even for his salary.

Well, ok, maybe for his salary.

Welcome Back, Mike

And welcome back, Yadi. And also a nice welcome back to Jason Christiansen.

Sweet Mother of Mary.

Random thoughts from a second viewing on MLB.tv:

- The Giants announcers said that Tyler Walker has been having some arm problems in the last week or two. So Taguchi's foul-offs were like body blows, setting up the knockout punch. Taguchi grows on you.

- Yadier Molina got to second faster on his homer than he did on Carpenter's bunts.

- John Rodriguez can hit breaking pitches. I guess that flat 82 mph thing was a breaking pitch.

- In case you didn't see it, Abraham Nuñez's liner was straight to the left fielder. Pretty much any baserunner starting from second would've been a dead duck at home.

- For those worrying about Albert Pujols in clutch situations, Pujols lined the 3-1 pitch... foul. Jeremy Accardo's 3-2 pitch to get a weak popout was darn near perfect. I don't know much about Accardo, but if I were a Giants fan I think I'd be wondering how things would've gone if Accardo had come in a batter or sooner or left a batter later.

- Edmonds thought he homered. Why did he run to second?

It's Always Something

I'd rather continue saying nice things about So Taguchi or shout "Hallelujah" at the return of Yadier Molina. Instead, though, I find myself pondering this:

The mood of a Schopenhauer or a Nietzsche... though often an ennobling sadness, is almost as often only peevishness running away with the bit between its teeth. The sallies of the two German authors remind one, half the time, of the sick shriekings of two dying rats.

William James

No, not that William James, this one. While to the best of my knowledge Nietzsche and Schopenhauer never wrote about baseball, the shoe fits for people who whine about managers. Jason Marquis's recent wild ride has me worked up, so I'll have to try pretty hard to avoid rat sounds.

Let's look at some numbers, going back to SD-132:

Date Opp  RA   IP
7/27 SDG   1  8.0
8/1  FLA   2  5.0
8/6  ATL   2  5.0
8/12 CHC   2  6.0
8/18 ARI   3  7.0
TOTAL     10 31.0

This mythical pitcher is giving you 6 innings per start and giving up two runs. I'll add that he's been helping himself with the bat. Of course this mythical pitcher is Jason Marquis if you lop off the last inning of his recent outings. Unless it's Chris Carpenter's turn, you'll take that from your starting pitcher. Here's what we've got instead:

Date Opp  RA   IP
7/27 SDG   2  8.1
8/1  FLA   6  6.0
8/6  ATL   6  5.0+
8/12 CHC   3  7.0
8/18 ARI   6  7.2
TOTAL     23 34.0

That's a 6.09 ERA, as all the runs were earned. One other thing you need to know is that except for the Florida game the Cardinals either trailed or were tied going into Jason's last inning. There are sample size caveats yadda yadda yadda, but it seems one of three things must be true:

(1) LaRussa doesn't know when Marquis is gassed.
(2) LaRussa's on a cold streak with his handling with Marquis.
(3) LaRussa's desperate to get Marquis a shot at a win.

I'm thinking it's the third choice. I'm not a pitch count zealot, Marquis isn't that young any more and he has a nice track record for health. He also got screwed by Joe West tonight (maybe, although my view was obstructed by Tom Pagnozzi and his kid). So I'm not hitting the panic button, screaming about LaRussa ruining poor Marquis. No, it's the desperate part that bothers me. If the "W" is that important to Marquis, then somebody on this veteran-laden team needs to go to him and say "Sorry about the lack of run support, but that's no excuse for putting yourself in front of the team. You're good for 100 pitches, six or seven innings, three trips through the lineup. The bullpen can take over from there." As with Scott Rolen's ill-fated return, this is where Mike Matheny might be missed.

So Good

With Matt Morris scuffling and Mark Mulder muddling along, Jeff Suppan had an impressive outing last night. Suppan will pick and choose his spots for glory, but this is the first time all year that his K's exceeded his hits, and he didn't walk anybody. Obviously Suppan won't turn into Carpenter II, but the occasional great start was a nice pick-me-up.

Of course the big hero was So Taguchi last night. So's earned a stanza with his recent play and on a more prosaic level he pushed his OPS over 800 -- the Vander Wal Line? -- with a big game last night. What do you know, he's got a higher OPS than Ichiro (801 to 794), although as VEB points out, So's rate stats have benefited from selective usage and it's not an overwhelming sample size. That's a cute fact nonetheless. The Cardinals should produce a video of So Taguchi's career for presentation to their players at the minors to demonstrate the value of hard work.

The Cardinals caught the White Sox last night in the standings, as they're both 31 games over, although the Pale Hose remain a few percentage points ahead. It's hard to believe what they've accomplished with so little from Rolen and with all the other injuries. And you can hear the cavalry tooting its horn.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Baseball Prospectus stated So Taguchi is not signed for 2006, which is technically true, but not what it implies. Taguchi will only have 2.079 years of service time at the end of the season, so he's not eligible for free agency. He's not even eligible for arbitration. Strangely they also say Suppan's contract is up this year, which is true to the same extent that Mulder's is. The Cardinals have options on both pitchers (and I think MLB Contracts has Suppan's 2006 option over-valued).

Parallel Universe

How's this for a strange line:

Daric Barton doubles (12) on a ground ball to right fielder Rick Ankiel.

With Tommy Herr's kid starting at 2B, plus Alan Benes and Tom Pagnozzi's nephew on the Springfield roster, this series is like a Love Boat episode with Annette Funicello, Desi Arnaz, Jr., and a young Tom Hanks.

UPDATE: For those not wishing to click on the link, Ankiel hit a walkoff homer in the 13th. A September call-up is looking a little less silly.

Anniversary

Well, that was a promising start by Anthony Reyes, wasn't it? He may have benefited from a high strike zone from Angel Hernandez, or maybe Angel Hernandez just decided to be a jerk to the Brewers, and it looks like we can expect a few scary flyballs each start from Reyes. You also probably don't want John Rodriguez and especially Hector Luna in the outfield behind Reyes.

Today is the 10th anniversary of this odd affair. Apparently that is the most recent forfeit in Major League Baseball. That's not quite as exciting as a fan falling to the screen behind home plate, but it does mess up my databases.

Reyes to Start Against Milwaukee?

I have a pretty good source close to the Cards organization telling me that top prospect Anthony Reyes has a hotel reserved for him in Milwaukee. This source has given me good information in the past. Look for Reyes to get his first start against the Brewers during the upcoming series. The 23 year old right-hander has been named the Cards top prospect by Baseball America. He is currently 7-4 with a 3.44 ERA at Memphis.

Eckstein

I had work to do, so I turned off the TV after Isringhausen gave up the insurance run. So is this some sort of elaborate joke?

D. Eckstein homered to deep left, A. Nunez, S. Taguchi and H. Luna scored

Holy mackerel.

Operation Marquis Garden

L Boros discussed Jason Marquis's latest struggles, starting from the San Diego game on July 27th when Marquis threw 132 pitches. I have two points to add:

(1) Marquis has one win since June 10th. Marquis actually didn't pitch that badly in July, posting an ERA of 2.80, albeit with a few unearned runs, and a 1.22 WHIP, but tradition dictates that starting pitchers aren't doing their jobs unless they pick up W's. In San Diego LaRussa was stretching Marquis to get that W, and he even said as much to the Post-Dispatch. It's a long season and individual goals help keep players focused, so I'm not complaining too much about one high pitch count game. A calculated risk can make sense, even if the results are unsatisfactory.

(2) LaRussa does need to manage those risks though. Marquis ran out of gas in the 9th against the Padres and lost traction in the 6th against the Marlins and Braves. There were three crucial at-bats in those three games, Robert Fick's game-ending single, Lenny Harris's bases-loaded double and Andruw Jones's grand slam. Immediately prior to each of those at-bats LaRussa or Duncan visited the mound. They're recognizing the risks and now they need to find the appropriate response. If they keep taking Marquis one batter too far, then they're not helping anybody.

Homers

As you may have heard, Albert Pujols became the first player in major league history to hit 30 homers in each of his first 5 seasons. That got me wondering how often players have had such 30-HR streaks, beginning of career or not. Turns out prior to 2005 there had been 40 streaks of 5+ seasons and that the list is dominated by recent ballplayers. Here's the top of the list:

Barry Bonds    13
Jimmie Foxx    12
Sammy Sosa     10 
Lou Gehrig      9
Eddie Mathews   9
Mike Schmidt    9
Rafael Palmeiro 9
Jim Thome       9
Babe Ruth       8
Mickey Mantle   8
Albert Belle    8
Mike Piazza     8
Jeff Bagwell    8
Carlos Delgado  8

Those names tell you something else, that a lot of those streaks have come or are coming to their ends in the last two seasons. Bonds may not play at all, Sosa's slugging percentage in 2005 is lower than So Taguchi's, Thome's been dreadful and Todd Helton (6) has dropped noticeably. Man-Ram and A-Rod have extended their streaks to 8 apiece, but Carlos Delgado's only 50/50 for his 9th season. Palmeiro, Giambi (5) and Bagwell saw their streaks end last year. I can demonstrate my mastery of the obvious by saying something seems to have happened about ten years ago, and that something may be coming to an end.

On a different note, if you're tracking the MVP race, Pujols has caught Derrek Lee in 2005 Win Shares.

The Gooch!

Last night, as the bottom of the 7th inning rolled around, I was quietly assessing the game playing out on the screen of my TV, and I thought about the score: "Hmmm," I thought, "4-2's not so bad... we score one here, one there, it's tied up." But then I thought about the fact that, to win, the Cardinals would have to score three more runs, and given the way the offense had looked against Josh Beckett, all of a sudden, things looked pretty grim.

Through six, Beckett had allowed but three hits----one a "classic" David Eckstein homer in which he turns on an off-speed pitch and drives it straight down the line and barely over the wall---and the Birds had put only three balls out of the infield on the fly all night: Eckstein's homer, an Eckstein lineout to left in the first, and a second-inning Edmonds double to right. Of the 18 outs, 7 were grounders, 5 were strikeouts, and 4 were infield or foul pop-ups. Simply put, the Cards were being dealt with.

But in the 7th inning, after one out, Grudz squirted a grounder through the left side and Abraham Nunez drew a walk. John Mabry stood in as the pinch-hitter for Mike Mahoney, and rather than have Beckett face Mabry and his .789 ops vs. RHP, Jack McKeon yanked his starter and, for the third time in three games in the series, went to Ron "High-N-Tight" Villone.

Now, I've always thought that, in mid to late innings, when a good pitcher is on a roll and the other team looks lifeless, but then scratches out a runner or two, it might be a good idea to stick with what's been working. I know it drives me nuts when Tony pulls one of our starters with a low pitch count when he allows a baserunner after he's set down like 10 in a row. I'm always glad to see the other team's starter yanked in such a situtaion, and I imagine the hitters feel the same way. Beckett was at 101 pitches---a count he'd exceeded in 8 of his 18 starts, which included outings of 121, 113, and 110---and maybe the five-pitch walk to Nunez was all the evidence McKeon needed to decide that Beckett was through.

At this point, as a Cardinal fan, I'm less concerned about Mabry's lefty-righty splits than I am with the fact that we've got two guys on, their starter out of the game, and a decent hitter who's been hot lately---Mabry went .341/.396/.591 in July---at the dish.

Let's just say that when Tony pushed the platoon button and brought in So Taguchi to face the lefty Villone, the words that escaped my lips weren't those meant for tender ears. And that was before the graphic showing Taguchi's pinch-hitting line this year---2 for 18 with 5 Ks---flashed on the screen. (For the record, Mabry is hitting .292 in limited action vs. LHP in '05).

I began barking to the other fan in the room (my wife) who joined in my protestations: "Who gives a crap about Taguchi's left/righty splits? Who'd you rather see up there right now??!!?? Two-for-eighteen??!!!"

After the first pitch from Villone to Taguchi sailed high and wide (it would have been right at Mabry's chin---maybe he CAN'T help it), we were still carrying on our diatribe when So delivered the blow that would shut us up: a quick upper-cut slash at a low inside pitch that was hit on a high arc and you knew it gone as soon as he hit it. I wonder how often the Gooch has been able to ease into his home-run trot that soon after hitting a ball.

A wave of guilty joy washed over me as I realized that the Birds were now on top, thanks to Tony's sick button-pushing and Taguchi's pinch-hitting prowess, the very things I had been railing against seconds earlier. Do I, as I fan, deserve to feel this, after all I've been spewing?

Hell yeah!! And I felt great as I reveled in my naked wrongheadedness that, as a fan, will never (thankfully) be able to affect what happens on the field, much as I may want to believe that my double-crossed-fingers and beseechings to the Great Cardinal in the Sky sometimes come to bear on an outcome.

So let's hear it for Taguchi, and for TLR, and for Matt Morris and his seven gritty innings, and for Edmonds and his amazing catch that spared Ray King even more trouble, and for David Eckstein's multiple smashes (do I see a month-long slump lifting?) as well as his fine play to end the game.

Fifty-five more to go. And then things get REALLY exciting.

Forget the Squeakers--Let's Kick Ass

Joe Sheehan over at Baseball Prospectus has an article today (still free, as of today, anyway) about teams coming back to earth and playing to their ultimate skill level, using the Washington Nationals as a case in point.

The Nationals used a ridiculous record in 1-run games to leap out to a big lead early in the NL East, but the tables turned and they've since gone something like 0-9 (I haven't paid close enough attention) in their last nine 1-run games and now find themselves in freefall within their division.

Sheehan suggests that it's more instructive to look at a team's record in all games EXCEPT 1-one games to get a gauge of their "true" talent level...

So, how do the Birds look when viewed through the multi-run-difference ledger?

St. Louis       50-18 .735
Chicago (A)     46-25 .648
Cleveland       39-26 .600
Atlanta         43-30 .589
Los Angeles (A) 40-28 .588
Toronto         47-35 .573
Oakland         44-34 .564
Boston          46-36 .561
Florida         42-33 .560
Houston         42-35 .545
New York (A)    44-38 .537
New York (N)    42-37 .532
Philadelphia    42-37 .532
Minnesota       34-30 .531
Washington      32-31 .508
Texas           35-35 .507
Baltimore       43-42 .506
Detroit         38-38 .500

Not bad, huh?

And it's easy to figure out why 11 of 14 AL teams are at .500 or better in these games, compared to only 7 of 16 NL clubs: it's because the Cardinals are kicking all the NL teams' asses.

The Home Stretch

Well, gang, we're sitting here at 106 games played, 56 to go, and our Birds have a cushion. Time to play what if:

What if the Cardinals play .500 ball the rest of the way?

At 67-39 currently, going 28-28 from here out, they would finish at a respectable 95-67. I'm not saying that's the kind of momentum we want to see them carry into October, just gauging the chances of the chasers. The 67-39 percentage extrapolates to 102 wins.

If the Cardinals play .500 ball to finish out, Houston has to go 37-19 to reach a tie in the division. Not out of the realm of possibility given their fantastic July, though they only gained 4 games on the Cardinals during that month. The Cubs would have to play 41-15 ball to tie. Not this year, given the pitching injury woes. Tell me again why they didn't re-sign Clement?

The good news is TLR will never settle for .500 to finish out. I'm feeling pretty good about the last two months, and I'm guessing most of you are too.

TSF

Cards Prospect Watch

1. Rick Ankiel is moving back up to AA ball after posting a .270/.368/.514 line for the Swing of Quad Cities. This will be his second run in Sprinfield after posting a .083/.120/.083 line before getting hurt and sent down to the Swing. Cardinals brass would like to see him reach AAA by the end of the season in order to become a serious prospect for the big club.

2. After making the move to Quad Cities, Mark McCormick has continued to impress. So far in three games he is 1-0 with a stingy 1.80 ERA. He is still struggling somewhat with his control with 10 BB in only 15 IP, but he also has 14 Ks. There is no doubt that McComick has electric stuff. Look to him to be an eventual bullpen candidate or trade bait if he is unable to lower his BB.

3. After seeing his ERA balloon above 7, Chris Lambert has finally begun to settle down after making the jump to AA ball Springfield from Palm Beach. He is now 2-3 with a 4.37 ERA. As with McCormick, Lambert has an electric arm but control can be a problem at times. He has 33 BB in 57.2 IP, but has the high K count that you like to see with a young prospect with 53. Due to the struggles of one time top prospect Blake Hawkesworth after coming back from sugery, Lambert and McCormick are neck and neck for to become the #3 pitching prospect in the Cardinals organization behind Wainwright and Reyes. Lambert could be the logical replacement in AAA should either of the Wainwright/Reyes tandem get the call to the bigs.

4. Finally, after all the talk about the weak Cardinals farm system, it is nice to see so many Memphis guys contributing at the big league level. John Rodriguez just might save WJ the need to get a young OF to replace Larry Walker in the offseason.

Open Thread: Steroids

The Orioles' Rafael Palmeiro was suspended this week for steroid use, less than a month after collecting his 3,000th hit in Seattle. For Palmeiro, it potentially cripples his Hall of Fame chances, but for the game of baseball, it creates a cloud of suspicion over nearly everyone. If Palmeiro, who adamantly denied using steroids before Congress (...Congress!), and isn't exactly Mr. Physical Specimen, is on them... then who isn't?

Well, other than this guy.

Four Months In -- Who's Hot & Who's Not?

Current Record 66-38
On Pace For 103-59
Magic Number 49

Vin Scully, who's full of thousands of little facts (as well as a line about Gall looking like he was divided into three parts), said the Cardinals just completed their tenth consecutive winning month. Would you believe the Cards went 17-9 in July? I didn't, perhaps because those 11 wins against the dreadful NL West don't feel like full wins. Of course those three wins against the hard-charging Astros should count double, so maybe it breaks even. Whatever the case, it's looking good for the Cardinals right now and for the Astros too. The Cubs continue to amaze with their mediocrity -- can you get more mediocre than 27-26 at home, 26-26 on the road, 479-470 runs scored-runs allowed and 5-5 in their last ten? -- and if Dusty Baker keeps his job it will be even more amazing.

The big news is that four Cardinal regulars went to the DL. Remember the Korean cartoon about Odalis Perez? Only Albert Pujols started that game and yesterday's game. On the brighter side, the Cardinals had a 2.97 ERA for the month. Let's walk through some of the individual highlights and lowlights.

WHO'S HOT?

John Rodriguez has taken St. Louis by storm, hitting 333 / 396 / 643 in 48 plate appearances. Yeah, I know, it's a small sample size and it's not that material in projecting what he'll do going forward. However, in light of the twin DL stints for Reggie Sanders and Larry Walker, that was precisely what the Cardinals needed, a real lift as LaRussa put it. Perhaps more interesting is that Rodriguez has had a couple of starts against lefties, suggesting the Cardinals want to get a good look at him with October and 2006 in mind. Rather than trading for Matt Lawton, who's merely OK with the bat and bad with the glove, it's good to get the chance to find out whether we have another Melvin Mora on our hands.

Chris Carpenter was an absolute monster in the month of July. Naturally he's cooled down in the last couple of starts. There isn't much more to say than what's already been said. Well, I will add that when I saw Carpenter pitch at Busch in June, the crowd groaned when he gave up a single. It was the kind of groan you would've heard last year when Matt Morris gave up one of his many homers or in 2001 when Lankford K'd with the tying on third and one out. In this case though, the crowd was groaning that Carpenter lost a no-hitter... in the third inning. He really spoiled us there for a while. Oh, one other thing, as good as Carpenter's been this season, his ERA+ would be third among Astros' starters, and he wouldn't have much of an advantage on Andy Pettitte.

Abraham Nuñez did his best Scott Rolen impression, hitting 354 / 432 / 508 in July. Maybe he and Rolen did a Vulcan mind meld or something, because Scottie engineered a 204 / 290 / 278 in July before mercifully being sent to the DL. I suppose Nuñez could be the starting 2B in 2006. John Mabry is another role player who had a good month (341 / 396 / 591) in limited at-bats. That's some nifty slack-picking-upping.

Mark Mulder had a 2.29 ERA in July. Honestly I think he was darn lucky and I don't just mean the more-BBs-than-Ks thing either. His fastball isn't fast, his control is off, and I'm not seeing much movement to his pitches. Against the Padres his curveball looked like something I've seen from A-ball pitchers. I'm trying to restrain my barking dogmatism though, so I'll nod my head at the bottom line for Mulder. I must note my disappointment with Mulder's lack of chemistry with Vin Scully, after whom the X-Files character was named.

WHO'S NOT?

Mike Mahoney and Einar Diaz combined to hit 181 / 203 / 250 in 72 July PAs. They also had six sac bunts hitting in the 8th spot. Mahoney seems to be the #1 catcher in Yadier Molina's absence, leading me to wonder how the heck the Rangers could trade Travis Hafner for Diaz. A Rangers fan pointed out that his team also got the recently released Ryan Drese too. The moral of the story is to start watching college football if the Cardinals hire John Hart. I'm ready for Yadier's return, and judging by Morris's recent loss of poise, I'm probably not alone.

David Eckstein hit 218 / 259 / 307 in July and his double play partner Mark Grudzielanek wasn't much better at 273 / 284 / 384. We can still make fun of the Yankees and Red Sox for paying much larger amounts of money for Renteria and Womack. Grudzielanek has looked great on defense, especially turning the DP, and to my eye Eckstein has improved somewhat with the glove.

Jim Edmonds hit 215 / 361 / 443 in July, although he showed signs of life in the last week or so. Of course he also had a couple of strange bunts in the last week, which just fuel my suspicion that he's playing hurt. Something like this happened in the second half of 2003, when Edmonds tried to play through injuries and registered a very similar line of 214 / 357 / 507; there were lots of at-bats late that year where Edmonds just wanted to do an Eckstein and work a walk. As unpleasant as it sounds, giving Edmonds days off against lefties makes sense. Edmonds needs the rest and So Taguchi gets leveraged a little bit.

Al Reyes gave up a grand slam to Neifi Perez. Let us not speak of this event further.

Down on the farm, Tyler Johnson seems to be putting it together. Johnson's K-rate led the A's to take him in the Rule 5 draft, but his continued control problems led the A's to return him. He's a lefty reliever worth watching. Adam Wainwright hasn't been so fortunate of late, and let's leave it at that.